The US predicted the outbreak of violence in the 2007 General Election 10 months before Kenyans cast their votes. In a cable posted to Washington on February 5, 2007, ambassador Michael Ranneberger warned that the increasing tribalisation of Kenyan politics could plunge the country into chaos in the run-up to the elections.

Bloggers across the continent are dissatisfied, dismayed and disappointed by the Africa Union’s handling of the crises in Libya and in Côte d'Ivoire, writes Dibussi Tande.

Aristide’s return to Haiti, the West’s war on Gaddafi, AU intervention and protests in Senegal and Morroco are among the stories covered in this week’s round-up of African uprisings, compiled by Sokari Ekine.

What Africa needs is ‘transformational leaders with vision, commitment and a resolve to make Africa a better place for its younger generation and generations yet unborn,’ writes Phidelia Amey. Can the African Union deliver?

Swaziland's government, feeling the pinch of a growing financial crisis, has suspended this quarter’s pensions for the elderly and redirected the money to pay the school fees of orphans and vulnerable children (OVC). '[Government] will utilise the funds allocated for the elderly grants, since they have R46 million (US$6.5 million) in that account currently, with a view that it shall be reimbursed timeously,' said a finance ministry report to parliament explaining how the R38 million ($5.4 million) bill for OVC school fees would be met.

The MDC says it is considering all available options, including possible legal action, over Tuesday’s (22 March) unilateral cancellation of the vote for Speaker of Parliament. ZANU PF Clerk of Parliament, Austin Zvoma, unilaterally froze the workings of the House after announcing that the anticipated Speaker vote would not take place. Zvoma, who is now the chief officer in Parliament after the Supreme Court nullified the 2008 election of the MDC’s elected Speaker Lovemore Moyo, said the House would be adjourned indefinitely. He gave no date as to when the election would be.

The Center for International Environmental Law (CIEL), a leading non-profit that uses international law to defend the right to a healthy planet, has announced the release of a new report, 'Fossilized Thinking: The World Bank, Eskom, and the Real Cost of Coal'. The report examines the economics underlying the Bank’s $3 billion loan to support a massive new coal-fired plant in South Africa. Specifically, the report evaluates whether the Bank adequately considered the impacts the 4,800 MW Eskom Project will have on human health and the environment and the likely economic costs of these impacts. The Bank’s operational policies require that these ‘externalities’ be taken into account to determine whether a project’s long-term economic benefits outweigh its costs. CIEL’s analysis reveals that, at least in this case, the Bank failed to adequately address and quantify important negative environmental effects, such as water scarcity and quality, air quality, and transboundary impacts.

Walasia Noor EL Shabazz catches a train - and gives some tips about how to innocuously frighten the racists.

Despite the collapse of the formal economy and of central government in Somalia, a remarkably resilient 'parallel' economy has emerged, notes this briefing paper from Chatham House. Based on traditional clan relationships, a lack of bureaucracy and well-established channels for remittance payments from the diaspora, this model has travelled with Somali émigrés to Kenya. Some businesses that began in the informal sector are making the transition to formal enterprise and Kenyan authorities should seek to encourage this with an enabling regulatory environment, says the briefing paper.

This paper from the South Centre argues that the policy of quantitative easing and close-to-zero interest rates in advanced economies, notably the US, are generating a surge in speculative capital flows to developing countries in search for yield and creating bubbles in foreign exchange, asset, credit and commodity markets. This latest generalised surge constitutes the fourth post-war boom in capital flows to developing countries. All previous ones ended with busts, causing serious damages to recipient countries.

Several organisations used Human Rights Day to voice their dissatisfaction with the eThekwini municipality, accusing it of violating human rights by failing to deliver services to needy communities. Hundreds marched to the Durban city hall, with some threatening to boycott the local government election on May 18. Representatives and supporters of Right2Know, shack dwellers’ organisation Abahlali baseMjondolo Movement SA, the South Durban Community Environmental Alliance, ratepayers’ associations, the Durban Social Forum and KZN Subsistence Fishermen were among the marchers.

As Côte d’Ivoire’s political deadlock continues, Maurice Fahe discusses the country’s geostrategic importance for the West, the long-term role of foreign multinationals in the country, the political implications of ‘Ivoirité’ and the differences between the current crisis and that of 2000.

The blood it flowed
Down an undetermined path
Washing with it
The expressions of a non-violent wrath

The fire it blazed
Over the body of Bouazizi, vegetables he was selling
Igniting a flame
Of global freedom story telling...

Kibera, Nairobi’s most notorious slum, is now the subject of a reality TV show. Rasna Warah slams the growing fashion of 'slum tourism'.

Antumi Toasije suggests the AU is preventing Pan-African unity.

Part of the delay in the finalisation of the economic partnership agreements (EPAs) is due to the so-called non-execution clause that gives the EU the power to take steps against its African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) trading partners if they violate human rights, democracy and good governance principles. 'African governments and civil society resist this clause because EPAs are commercial agreements where the two parties give and take,' explains Cheikh Tidiane Dieye, the civil society representative of the West African EPA negotiating team.

US political prisoner Jalil A. Muntaqim gives a statement of support for Egypt’s youth.

Senegal should accept an African Union (AU) plan for the trial of Hissène Habré during discussions set for 23 and 24 March in Addis Ababa, a coalition of human rights organisations said today in a letter to Senegal's president. The African Union, which called at its summit in January for an 'expeditious' start to a long-delayed trial, invited Senegal to the Ethiopian capital to discuss an AU proposal to try the former Chadian dictator before a special court within the Senegalese justice system whose president and appeals chamber president would be appointed by the AU. The Senegalese delegation to the talks will be led by Justice Minister Cheikh Tidiane Sy.

Zimasa Lerumo tells the story of her experiences growing up in South Africa’s Eastern Cape.

In light of its dubious leadership and disingenuous soundings on the need for ‘youth empowerment’, Eyob Balcha has little patience with the African Union: ‘[F]or me the African Union is the most hypocrite institution that I’ve ever heard and seen.’