http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/359/47178race.jpgBlessing-Miles Tendi argues that it is too early to rule out a Mugabe led Zimbabwe - he will find ways to remain in power.

I have been following Zimbabwe's 2008 elections closely. My emotions have mutated with alacrity, checking news sites more often than I should, and receiving calls and messages from family and political contacts in Zimbabwe. Since last week, I have gone from 'Robert Mugabe and ZANU PF will win' to 'it will be a landslide victory for the opposition' to 'Mugabe has already fled the country fearing retribution' to 'the army has ordered the electoral commission to declare Mugabe the winner' and now, my present mood and thinking is that a lot of people are going to be disappointed by the eventual outcome of the presidential poll because we are headed for a do or die run-off between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai.

The two things that stand out about Mugabe's political pattern is his consistency, and that he is too wily and resolute in power to be swept away in a pseudo democratic election. Zimbabwe is better off without him at the helm but we must temper our emotions and stop our imagination from running wild. Mugabe has been in difficult situations before and wriggled out of them amazingly. 'Jesus rose from the dead once but I have come back from the dead several times', he once boasted. The probability is high that Mugabe can come back from the dead once again. I would not bet against it. This is my position now, after what has been a rollercoster week of miraculous flip-flopping on my part.

Sovereignty is a vehicle towards the good life for the ZANU PF political elite. The font of sovereignty is the powerful executive presidency through which ZANU PF has privatised the institution of the state as a means to authoritarian rule and personal aggrandisement: 'the desire to retain sovereignty and not to surrender it or even share it is a powerful motive perpetuating the ex-colonial status quo in Sub Saharan Africa. Sovereignty gives a relatively small number of people control of state positions which confer enormous palpable advantages and privileges. Ruling elites literally live off sovereignty and most live very well indeed - as long as they live. They fight to keep it and others fight to take it away from them'.

When Mugabe and ZANU PF play up sovereignty it is in order to protect their hold on power and its benefits. Their uses of sovereignty are less about protecting the country and its inhabitants' sovereignty but more about protecting the 'enormous palpable advantages and privileges' sovereignty affords them. In Zimbabwe it is not the governed who are sovereign – it is ZANU PF that is sovereign. ZANU PF elites live off sovereignty. Thus, sovereignty is one of the themes commanding broad consensus in ZANU PF and the party will strive – at all costs - to keep its hold on sovereignty by retaining the presidency in the looming run off.

A run off between Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai may suit Mugabe better than facing Simba Makoni in a runoff because if there is anything many in ZANU PF and Zimbabwe's top security officials are united on, it is that Tsvangirai must not rule. Those comprising the status quo not only stand to lose their sovereignty but also fear prosecution for crimes committed in office if Tsvangirai prevails.

ZANU PF was divided in this election but expect it to put its differences aside and to rally behind Mugabe forcefully in a run off with Tsvangirai. Mugabe risked damaging defections if he had faced Makoni in a run off. A Mugabe-Makoni run off would have presented Makoni's secret and powerful backers in ZANU PF, such as Solomon Mujuru, with the opportune moment to abandon Mugabe in favour of Makoni. Mugabe will also find it easier to marshal ZANU PF's rank and file to campaign for him against Tsvangirai as opposed to Makoni who has many sympathisers in the ruling party. Indeed some will not need to be marshaled at all for retaining the presidency means guaranteeing their life of privilege.

ZANU PF will leave no stone unturned in a Mugabe-Tsvangirai face off. ZANU PF was complacent in the rural areas and some of its rural party structures were not as formidable as they normally are. It underestimated the extent to which Tsvangirai would make significant in roads into its rural strongholds. The free political space Tsvangirai enjoyed in the rural areas during this campaign will be gone in the run off. A run off in 3 weeks, or 90 days as has been suggested, also allows ZANU PF some time to tinker its rigging machinery. The war veterans have started making threats. There is a developing discourse proclaiming the return of white farmers and how the land revolution can only be defended by re-electing Mugabe. The military looks set to be more involved than ever before in guaranteeing Mugabe's re-election. We are about to be blitzed with everything ZANU PF has left.

* Blessing-Miles Tendi is a researcher at Oxford University.

**Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

The Zimbabwe Solidarity Forum salutes the Zimbabweans and their organisations who have courageously spoken out against the unacceptable shenanigans of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. The tension surrounding the announcement of the election results is only fuelling the deep suspicions that ZANU-PF is again involved in efforts to falsify the outcomes of an election. We have seen this before but this time it cannot and will not be accepted.

Already reports are coming in that the figures being reported have inflated the total individual votes received by ZANU, paving the way for efforts to announce a dishonest ZANU victory at Senate and Presidential levels. The corresponding increase in police and army presence on the streets of Harare and Bulawayo, the ransacking of the offices of the opposition MDC, the harassment and arrest of journalists and inflammatory statements from ZANU officials does not bode well for the democratic process.

Foreign observers are leaving the country before the process is over, media attention is already shifting to new fresher stories, but the ZANU machinery is only just preparing to unleash the full might of its violent capabilities.

The ZSF reminds key security force personnel in Zimbabwe of the statements made by the African National Congress those public pronouncements that refuse to accept the leadership of the MDC is unacceptable. As in any democracy the military in Zimbabwe must recognise that they are accountable to the state, and that the state is accountable to the electorate.

The ZSF calls on SADC and the African Union to intervene decisively in Zimbabwe. It must be made clear that violence and repression is not part of the solution to Zimbabwe’s crisis and that it will not be tolerated. South Africa must continue to engage the ZANU Politburo in dialogue aimed at preventing violence. The rigorous defence of democratic principles is critical not only to the future of Zimbabwe but for the whole of the Southern African region and the entire African continent.

**Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

Statement on World Health Day

The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights calls to attention the state of the public health system. Zimbabwe?s healthcare system, in a known state of crisis, is in need of urgent attention. It is crippled by dilapidated infrastructure, drug shortages, equipment breakdowns, brain drain and costs of healthcare skyrocketing beyond the reach of the majority of Zimbabweans.

Average life expectancy, according to the WHO, has declined from 60 years to 37 years for men and 34 for women during the past decade. Maternal mortality is rising to a level which meets that of the world poorest countries.

ZADHR commends health professionals and health workers in Zimbabwe who have continued to deliver health services in very difficult circumstances and remain committed to the recovery and improvement of the public health system.

ZADHR notes the need for a comprehensive national health plan to replace some of the uncoordinated ad hoc measures that have been put in place to address the crisis in the short term. Such a plan must guarantee that Zimbabwean?s are able to enjoy their right to health. The responsibility for this lies with government in consultation with other stakeholders.

Marking World Health Day, ZADHR calls upon the newly elected Parliament of Zimbabwe, amidst a myriad of challenges ahead of it during its term in office, to prioritise policy interventions to address the public health crisis in Zimbabwe. In doing so ZADHR urges the new Parliament to attend to the following key areas:

- Formulating legislation that protects, respects and fulfils the right to health for all Zimbabweans.

- Providing adequate infrastructure needed for effective and equitable healthcare such as safe running water, adequate sanitation, electricity and transport.

- Taking measures to address shortages of drugs and medical equipment in the short, medium and long term.

- Creating conditions under which good training quality for health professionals is guaranteed and ensure that conditions in which these skills can be retained exist.

**Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

It is going to take more than a regime change back home to get the several million-strong Zimbabwean diaspora to return, according to analysts. "It's both the economy and politics," said Mlamuli Nkomo, an expert in Forced Migration at the University of Witwatersrand, South Africa.

As the world waits to see what will happen in Zimbabwe, Patrick Bond argues that lessons should be taught and retaught about the dangers of elite transition between a voracious, corrupt, violent and divisive set of rulers, and an incoming crew who might not withstand the blandishments of local power-sharing and global economic seduction.

Zimbabwe's opposition has filed a high court application to compel the electoral commission to release the results of the presidential election, the party's lawyers said. The move by the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) comes as the ruling party of Robert Mugabe, the president, met on Friday to decide whether to contest a run-off vote.

Zimbabwean police on Thursday arrested two foreign correspondents, including a New York Times correspondent who was covering the country's election. "I can confirm that we have arrested two reporters at York Lodge for practising without accreditation," said police spokesman Wayne Bvudzijena, who added the police would identify them on Friday.

The leadership of Zimbabwe's ruling ZANU-PF party met on Friday to decide whether President Robert Mugabe should contest a runoff vote against opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai. Mugabe convened his politburo after the party lost control of parliament for the first time in 28 years, in the biggest setback of his rule.

On 29 March 2008, Zimbabweans took part in a general election to elect members of the parliament, local councillors and a president. For the first time since the country gained independence from Britain in 1980, opposition parties have a majority in the House of Assembly.

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/359/47089elec.jpgKenyan's call and solidarity with the people of Zimbabwe during this difficult moment in their history.

The People of Kenya, individually and through various civil society organizations grouped under the National Civil society Congress and Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice (KPTJ), are deeply concerned by the pace at which the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission has been announcing results from the elections. We applaud the people of Zimbabwe for being patient, yet very alert and vigilant to avoid the manipulation of results. We call on them to remain united, engage the state in a constructive manner, and avoid acts that violate the rights of any fellow citizen.

Civil society leaders in Kenya, having learnt our lessons during our last election, last week delivered a message to the parties and the civil society formations in Zimbabwe, to totally seal loopholes at the command center in Harare to ensure that the vote of every Zimbabwean counts equally.

Over the past year, Kenyan civil society organizations and political parties (through the Center for Multi Party Democracy (CMD) have worked closely with the people of Zimbabwe in their tortuous search for a new, democratic, prosperous Zimbabwe - the Zimbabwe they want. Representatives of Kenyan civil society organizations have been involved in constructive discussions and advocacy aimed at guaranteeing a framework for a free, fair and credible election that was finally carried out on Saturday, March 29, 2008.

This election was expected to be epic. Not only because it is historic and supremely positioned to demarcate Zimbabwe's future from her past, but also because it was a complex and momentous exercise that had to deliver civic councillors, Members of Parliament, Senators, and a President for Zimbabwe, all through the markings of a single pen at a polling centre.

We identify with the positions and calls made yesterday April 2, 2008 by the civil society groups in Zimbabwe organized for this election under the Umbrella of the Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) . We now send out the following unequivocal messages:

We regret that the SADC mediation process for Zimbabwe was so poorly handled; it did not deliver a new democratic constitutional order and establish a credible electoral process.

We regret that the people of Zimbabwe had to conduct these elections amidst an inflation rate of over 100,000%, with the rate of unemployment standing at over 80% and with nearly 5,000,000 of their nationals residing outside their country. They deserve a better country and we pledge to support them while, alongside us in Kenya, they struggle to reconstruct, reform and reconcile Zimbabwe Kenyans demand that ZEC announces the results of the Presidential vote immediately without further delay, to avoid a situation where the country may degenerate into chaos, triggered by the fear that ZEC is manipulating or tampering with the Presidential elections results.

That the international community offers the people of Zimbabwe solidarity at this moment of great need.

That SADC and the African Union take the lead in facilitating a smooth and peaceful transition in Zimbabwe They must urge Mugabe NOT to tamper with the election results.

That SADC should review their statement that concluded that elections were free and fair while closing their ears to the significance of the undemocratic practices of the ZANU-PF regime. These include the stranglehold monopoly of the media by ZANU, the criminal intimidation of the masses by the security forces, and the declaration by Robert Mugabe that votes that were to be cast for the opposition were wasted votes as he planned to retain power.

We in Kenya know too well, and indeed witnessed while on the ground in Zimbabwe, that both the political environment and the administration of the elections did not facilitate free and fair elections. The media was monopolized by ZANU-PF. Restrictive laws such as Public Order and Security Act (POSA), Access to Information and Protection to Privacy Act were applied severally.

Administratively, the voters roll was not in order. There were high counts of ghost voters on electoral rolls. Distribution of polling stations and involvement of the police officers in the polling stations contravened terms agreed at the SADC Mediation process, chaired by President Thabo Mbeki.

We demand that the security forces not interfere with the sovereign will of the people, and that African Union and SADC standards on democratic governance be applied fully. We wish to inform the security forces that as Africans, Kenyans are of the view that Zimbabwe is too important to be left to Zimbabweans alone. Our position is that "an injury to one of us is an injury to all of us"!

As we issue this statement, there is a heavy presence of (anti) riot police and army troops in the streets of Harare and Bulawayo. Combined with the delay in announcing votes, this could provoke serious civil unrest and even anarchy. We call upon Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangrai to submit to sovereign will of the people when a credible result is finally delivered by the ZEC.

We propose that the people of Zimbabwe, immediately after this nervous transition convene an African Conference on Zimbabwe. As Kenyans, we shall engage upon their invitation and urge our government to fully support the democratic re-emergence of Zimbabwe from the brink of collapse and destruction. We look forward to addressing jointly our shared agenda of reconstruction, reform and reconstruction. Kenya and Zimbabwe must regain their rightful places of leaders of the continent's struggles for democratic development and Human development.

Kenyans For Peace With Truth and Justice (KPTJ) and the National Civil Society Congress (NCSC)

April 3, 2008

For signatories click on link below.

According to Associated Press, police have raided their offices at a Harare hotel in what he called the start of a "crackdown." Police apparently raided and ransacked several rooms used by the party at the downtown Meikles hotel. No one was arrested. Paramilitary police in riot gear also raided a hotel used by foreign journalists in Harare and took away three or four reporters, according to a man who answered the phone at the hotel.

This is clearly an attempt to establish a news blackout as a prelude to ...?

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/359/47087finger.jpgAs the world waits to see what will happen in Zimbabwe, Patrick Bond argues that lessons should be taught and retaught about the dangers of elite transition between a voracious, corrupt, violent and divisive set of rulers, and an incoming crew who might not withstand the blandishments of local power-sharing and global economic seduction.

Zimbabwe's March 29 election surprised many, because although it seemed President Robert Mugabe had the machinery in place to ensure a victory even by stealth, as has happened before, the groundswell of opposition was overwhelming. By late on April 3, we don't know how many votes he won, either in reality or in the cooked books of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), but certainly fewer than 50%.

What is known, at this writing, is that a bare plurality of the 210 seats in the House of Assembly were won by Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change: 99. This was two ahead of Mugabe's Zanu-PF, with Arthur Mutambara's MDC faction getting 10 and the independent Jonathan Moyo retaining his seat. (Three more seats will be fought for in by-elections due to the deaths of MDC candidates.)

But these are official statistics, and who knows what the actual votes were, once the multiple systems of rigging are exposed, if ever they are?

As for the presidential race – for which at this time no figures have been released by the ZEC - Tsvangirai says that based on polling place reportbacks, he received 1,171,079 votes, or about 49%, with Mugabe getting 44% and Makoni the balance. (Mutambara told his supporters to vote for Makoni.)

Senate and municipal election results are also not being released as we write. In any case, the official parliamentary results are so distorted that on Thursday morning the state-owned Herald newspaper claimed, “Zanu-PF had won 45,94 percent of the votes, MDC-Tsvangirai 42,88 percent, the MDC [Mutambaraba] 8,39 percent and the minor parties and independent candidates 2,79 percent.” The Herald even claimed Zanu-PF outpolled Tsvangirai's MDC in Matabeleland South.

Though Zanu-PF has definitely lost control of parliament, such numbers justify Mugabe potentially contesting a run-off, which would be held no more than 21 days after March 29. Tsvangirai and former finance Minister Simba Makoni had a pre-election pact to unite in such an event, and it is hard to imagine that if the pact holds, Tsvangirai would not beat Mugabe outright, one on one.

Makoni, who ran solo for president with no machine behind him, never gained the open public support of key military factions and of dissident Zanu-PF politicians that his main handler, Ibbo Mandaza, had predicted.

Makoni's arrogance in entering the race – probably drawing away roughly the same votes from each main party – was again witnessed this morning. His advisor, former Mugabe spokersperson Godfrey Chanetsa, now insists that in a new government in alliance with Tsvangirai, Makoni would not “play second fiddle. He came to lead.”

As reporter Fiona Forde put it, “frantic behind-the-scenes negotiations were laying the groundwork for a government of national unity that would include not only the opposition MDC but also Zanu-PF with Makoni taking on a senior role with extended executive powers.”

Here's Chanetsa's strange rationale: "Eight percent is an illusion. Many people were afraid to vote for Simba, afraid of letting Zanu in the back door and losing their chance of getting rid of Robert. But if they got rid of Robert, do you still think they would see Morgan as the right man for the job?"

Meanwhile, an ominous dance began between Tsvangirai and the forces of imperialism. According to a Reuters report today, the MDC would gain access to US$2 billion per year in 'aid and development' – which normally is top-heavy with foreign debt and chock-full of conditions. Amongst these, most likely, are dramatic cuts to the civil services, so that the Zimbabwe central bank stops printing so much money, fuelling inflation. But the downside is the potential deepening of the country's economic crisis in the short term, as effective demand falls while more luxury goods become available thanks to foreign exchange inflows.

The key players are the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Union and the United Nations. No doubt Bush's White House is also involved in negotiations, which, if Tsvangirai persuades Mugabe to depart, may even reach fruition next week at the IMF/Bank spring meetings in Washington.

Given that Tsvangirai has chosen advisors from the International Republican Institute and Cato Institute, such a process was anticipated. It simply means that the left-leaning civil society forces that backed Tsvangirai have a huge regroupment challenge. If after an April 21 victory, many progressive Zimbabwean organisations lose cadres into an expanded state, this may recall the liquidation of South Africa's Mass Democratic Movement into the African National Congress government.

At least in Kenya, reports from Tuesday's street battles between hundreds of protesters and police show that civil society will not necessarily accept a 'supersized state' as a gimmick to seduce contesting parties into a government of national unity. “No more than 24!” was the activists' demand for a slim state so that more social spending can be spent on ordinary people, not the bloated ministers' Mercedes.

In the same critical spirit, Kenya's National Civil society Congress and Kenyans for Peace with Truth and Justice offered wisdom and solidarity in a statement today. Amongst their concerns, were “That SADC should review their statement that concluded that elections were free and fair while closing their ears to the significance of the undemocratic practices of the Zanu-PF regime.”

Between Kenya's tragic election last December and Zimbabwe's uplifting experience last Saturday, lessons should be taught and retaught about the dangers of elite transition between a voracious, corrupt, violent and divisive set of rulers, and an incoming crew who might not withstand the blandishments of local power-sharing and global economic seduction.

*Professor Patrick Bond is the Director of the Durban based Centre for Civil Society.

**Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/359/47086SADC.jpgInordinate delay in announcing results is of grave concern to civil society:

We the undersigned Civil Society groups whose names are listed below have found it necessary to send this urgent petition to your Excellences in order to save our country from potentially sinking into complete anarchy if election results are manipulated.

On 29th March, 2008 the people of Zimbabwe voted for the national president, members of parliament and councillors.

The elections took place against the background of a serious political and economic crisis in the country, which has lasted for a decade. After brazen use of organized violence and torture of political opponents as Zimbabwe approached the 2008 election year, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) facilitated negotiations between the government and the opposition to end Zimbabwe 's crisis so that Zimbabweans can once again live in dignity.

President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa who was mandated by SADC to lead the dialogue stated clearly that his aspiration was that the March 2008 elections needed to be held in circumstances where the outcome of such elections would not be contestable. Even though the negotiations collapsed before reaching their final conclusion, there were some changes in the electoral laws that resulted in visible changes on the ground in terms of the election management process as follows:

1. The accreditation of journalists was smoother and earlier than in previous elections even though the government erred in being selective on whom it invited to observe.  

2. There were less queues at polling stations and it looked like the majority of those who wanted to vote and whose names were on the voter's roll managed to vote without undue delays or major hassles.

3. The general environment inside the polling station and around the polling station was not hostile unlike in previous elections where cases of harassment of local observers were reported. In this election there have been few reports of intimidation or harassment of human rights defenders during the election day and the period immediately after.  

4. The counting and posting of results at the polling stations for all to see was very well received and ordinary people could be seen in numbers studying the results posted at the polling stations.

There were however some areas of concern as well. These will be enumerated in due course as various organizations do their individual and collective election reports as necessary. However the biggest concern that has emerged is the inordinate delay in the announcing of the election results. The counting was done immediately after the polls were shut generally around 7 pm on 28 March 2008 at the polling stations. The results were posted at the polling stations immediately and there is significant concern at the failure of the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC) to announce these results more than 36 hours after the voting stopped. There seems to be absolutely no justification for this delay and the tokenistic announcement of results for 109 contested positions by 8am on 1 April 2008 is wholly inadequate.

We as Civil Society are concerned by the failure to announce the results timeously. This creates a founded suspicion in the minds of Zimbabweans that the authorities are trying to manipulate the results in order to get their preferred party candidates to win. This is especially so given that the opposition has already been expressing public concern at what they saw as measures that were being taken to manipulate the vote and rig the elections.

This delay, if it persist will result in the real likelihood of the outcome of the elections being contested and in the process undermining what ever small gains may have arisen from the SADC efforts. We are naturally gravely concerned that any contestation of the outcome of the elections is also likely to lead to escalation of conflict. With the weak rule of law environment that has been well documented before, the elections may trigger serious and potentially widespread violations of human rights in Zimbabwe .

We are aware that the Zimbabwean government has already deployed police, army and intelligence units into the major cities in anticipation of potential trouble. Of significant concern are the unconfirmed rumours that allegedly from the security branches of government that the incumbent is preparing to declare a state of emergency after announcing inaccurate results. This is consistent with the threats by the security chiefs before the elections that they are not prepared to accept the election results if President Mugabe and ZANU PF lose the elections.

We the Civil Society Organisations from Zimbabwe therefore implore the SADC and AU heads of State and Government to urgently

1. Exert the necessary diplomatic pressure to force President Mugabe to ensure that the elections are as free and fair as possible.  

2. Demand that President Mugabe and his government should allow the elections results to be released immediately without being tampered with.  

3. Exert the necessary diplomatic pressure to President Mugabe not to declare a state of emergency.  

4. Apply pressure on the military and intelligence in Zimbabwe not to manipulate the elections results and to accept the peoples verdict in the elections  

5. Call for SADC in conjunction with other international and domestic observers to investigate allegations of fraud, so that the ZEC announced results may be       correlated with independent tabulation processes.  

6. That SADC together with the African Union should be prepared to urgently engage in a process to assist in resolving any dispute that may arise if the results of the elections are seriously contested - particularly since the domestic electoral courts process is itself not seen as legitimate by all but the ruling party.

Dated this 1 April 2008 by the undersigned Civil Society Organisations

1. CRISIS COALITION ZIMBABWE   2. ZIMBABWE LAWYERS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS   3. ZIMBABWE NATIONAL STUDENTS UNION   4. ZIMRIGHTS   5. MANICALAND LEGAL PRACTITIONERS ASSOCIATION.   6. CHURCHES IN MANICALAND   7. ZIMBABWE HUMAN RIGHTS NGO FORUM   8. ZIMBABWE CONGRESS OF TRADE UNIONS   9. NATIONAL CONSTITUTIONAL ASSEMBLY  10. THE SAVE ZIMBABWE CAMPAIGN  11. PROGRESSIVE TEACHERS UNION OF ZIMBABWE  12. STUDENTS SOLIDARITY TRUST  13. COMBINED HARARE RESIDENTS ASSOCIATION  14. ZIMBABWE STUDENTS CHRISTIAN MOVEMENT  15. ZIMBABWE COALITION ON DEBT AND DEVELOPMENT  16. MEDIA INSTITUTE OF SOUTHERN AFRICA ( ZIMBABWE CHAPTER)  17. MEDIA MONITORING PROJECT ZIMBABWE  18. YOUTH INITIATIVE FOR DEMOCRACY IN ZIMBABWE

Joram Nyathi candidly makes the case that what ails African democracies is change in the absence of real alternatives.

A lot has been said about the Kenyan election debacle. Lessons have been drawn locally on both sides of the political divide. Unfortunately most of these lessons are no more than self-serving wishes. In my view, the real lesson is the danger of obsession with change for its own sake, and in that quest, embracing every claimant to power as the Messiah. Zimbabweans are guilty of this propensity.

South Africans look worse. Reading the South African media about President Thabo Mbeki's alleged autocratic rule in the few weeks before Polokwane made me feel like we in Zimbabwe were ruled by angels. So intense was the hatred for Mbeki that his rival Jacob Zuma was assured of the ANC presidency despite his soiled name. It was as if the name Zuma represented a cure for Aids, crime and racial inequality in SA.

It is perplexing. Here is a man who answers to every act of misdemeanor from rape to influence-peddling to outright corruption and tax evasion being elevated to the pedestal of a saint who is being victimised by a cruel sitting president whom he has challenged for office! In any civilised society, the accusation of corruption, let alone rape, should make any decent person recuse himself from the presidential race. Zuma would have magnified his own stature. He doesn't need to be convicted.

Things were never going to be easy for Mbeki from the start: matching Nelson Mandela's affability, dealing with a recalcitrant ruler such as President Robert Mugabe who is universally reviled by those he has hurt, and given growing anti-intellectual sentiment in politics in Zimbabwe and SA. But in Zuma we have a man who can stand up when later accused of rape, violence (leth' umshini wami), corruption, racketeering, fraud and philandering and say with a straight face: "When I campaigned I didn't hide who I am."

In the face of all this grunge you have influential organisations such as Cosatu threatening the judiciary with a "bloodbath" if Zuma is brought to court.

The biggest lesson from the Kenyan post-election violence is the danger of electing into power democratic charlatans without institutional fireguards to ensure such people can be removed later without bloodletting; and our fascination with the politics of tribe and other irrational considerations which blind us to people's motives for getting into politics. It is the danger of choosing leaders for where they come from ahead of enduring values necessary in nation-building.

Anyone who opposes a hated sitting president automatically becomes a democrat. Mwai Kibaki was feted as a democrat for defeating Daniel arap Moi without anyone examining his democratic credentials. The election was judged free and fair. In five years the guy has shown his true colours and those who elected him are shocked by his "transformation" from what he never was to a corrupt dictator and tribalist. To me there was no betrayal of the people but an exposure of bad choice.

The irony is that Western democracies which are quick to point to us torch bearers of democracy subject their would-be leaders to a very rigorous vetting before they are elected. I am fascinated by the ongoing campaign by the Democrats in the United States. This is not a country in any serious political crisis like we are, yet its leader must pass through the crucible of public scrutiny and explain fully what his policies are, what he wants to do and how. It is not enough to chronicle the current leader's failures. Any imbecile can do that. Talking democracy and human rights is cheap -- the test is on delivery.

Unfortunately in desperation for change, any change, we are shy if not afraid to confront our future leaders with hard questions about who they are and their shortcomings. Yet it is the political leader ultimately who gives the nation its international character.

The other lesson from Kenya is the threat of violence if elections are rigged. Forcing people to vote in a certain way on the threat of violence amounts to democracy by fear. It does not represent the free will of the people. It is the need to select for leadership people of integrity. We need leaders who are able to accept loss and victory in an election with dignity and know when to quit.

Kenya's Raila Odinga might have a cause to complain, but to me there is no point in voting for a leader of hooligans, who, after a disputed electoral result, rampage in the streets, burning, raping and murdering people in church. There was nothing among the poor Kikuyu in the slums of Kibera and Mathare to show that they had unfairly benefited from Mwai Kibaki's rule ahead of other tribes. Nor is there evidence that those being targeted for attack voted for him. Yet we read that boys and girls as young as six years are being raped for voting for Kibaki or for simply being Kikuyu.

In any case, if the Kikuyu are being targeted as an ethnic group because Kibaki is Kikuyu, then by inverse rule Odinga forfeits the claim of a "people's president" if only his Luo clanspeople and a few others voted for him.

The trouble with wanton violence is that it never affects the criminal leader himself. Does anybody for once nurse the illusion that Charles Taylor or Joseph Kony will ever fully pay for atrocities they have committed against their people in Liberia and Uganda? Or that Odinga is justified in causing the deaths of over 600 Kenyans because he wants to go to State House?

Broadly, the Kenyans are paying for what has become the bane of African politics -- short-term and opportunistic considerations in the selection of national leaders. Lack of long-term vision in the beginning comes to haunt us in the end.

*Nyathi is the deputy editor of the Zimbabwe Independent. This article first appeared in the The Zimbabwe Independent.

**Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/358/47049zimba.jpgRasna Warah reminds Zimbabweans that Kenya can only be a model of what not to do - the cost in terms of lives, a shattered economy, internally displaced populations, and broken trust is to high a price to pay.

Many Kenyans including myself, are shocked to learn that their country is now considered a role model by many Zimbabweans who have been seriously contemplating “doing a Kenya” if the results of the elections this weekend are not to their liking.

I suppose given the state of their economy, and the fact that the country has been ruled by the last of Africa’s Big Men for close to three decades, Zimbabweans are beginning to believe that the only way fundamental changes can be brought about in their country is by breaking into the kind of violence that Kenyans experienced in the weeks following what many believe to be rigged elections.

One argument put to me recently was that a country has to go through violent conflict in order to emerge as a better nation.

Shortly after the violence broke out in many parts of Kenya, I attended a meeting in Dar es Salaam where participants seriously debated whether what was happening in Kenya was a necessary prelude to fundamental reforms needed in society.

At one point, a stunned delegate from Rwanda was even asked whether the genocide in Rwanda had been worth it as it had paved the way for a more democratic and open society that was based on progressive, egalitarian laws.

He responded by saying that the price Rwanda had paid for its peace and democracy was too high, not just in terms of the cost of reconstruction, but because it was written in the blood of hundreds of thousands of his country’s men, women and children.

It is very tempting to believe that had it not been for the violence that engulfed Kenya in the last two months, the two leaders, Mr Raila Odinga and President Kibaki, might never have agreed to form a coalition government dedicated to bringing about much-needed reforms and constitutional changes.

But was it the fact that more than 1,200 people were killed and some 350,000 were internally displaced that melted their hearts, or was it international pressure from Western governments and the international community that forced them to reach a compromise?

Many believe it is the latter. Kenya is strategically important to Western governments for many reasons.

A crisis in Kenya has the potential to spill over to the entire Eastern Africa region and the Horn, as the port of Mombasa serves as a crucial transport link for neighbouring countries and is a strategic gateway to the troubled Middle East.

Moreover, the United States considers Kenya as a useful ally in its war against terror, especially because the country borders Somalia and Sudan, two countries that have been a thorn in the flesh of the US government for more than a decade.

Zimbabwe on the other hand is landlocked, has no significant ally among the world’s most powerful nations, has no oil or other minerals that are of critical importance to the Western world, and is on the brink of economic collapse.

A violent civil war may stir Britain, South Africa or the African Union into action, but it will barely elicit a yawn from the United States or the European Union.

But even if, by some miracle, the world did unite to liberate a strife-torn Zimbabwe, the price the country will have paid will be so great, it will take years to recover.

In Kenya, two months of violence not only cost lives, but hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenue, property and jobs.

It is estimated that the first week of violence alone cost the country US$1 billion. Tourism, one of the biggest income-earners, dropped dramatically as tourists cancelled bookings or left the country in droves.

Inflation soared as vital road links were cut off, making it difficult for farmers to reach their markets. Seven land-locked neighbouring countries that relied on Kenya’s transport networks for imports suffered severe shortages.

But the real cost of the crisis was borne by the people of Kenya, who are still reeling from the impact of the violence.

Reports indicate that the incidence of rape tripled in the months of January and February, with a majority of victims being under the age of 18.

Lawlessness in various parts of the country, including Nairobi, spawned ethnically-based militia groups who killed or forcibly evicted people from their homes and neighbourhoods. Some of these groups are still operating in parts of the country.

Almost every Kenyan was directly or indirectly affected by the violence. As a nation we are traumatised and it will take us a long time to trust again.

If that is the price of democracy, then it is a price many Kenyans are not ever willing to pay again. Zimbabweans should take note.

*Ms Warah is an editor with the UN. The views expressed here are her own and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations. This article was first published in Kenya's Daily Nation

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Against the backdrop of a blatantly unfair pre-election environment, Zimbabweans voted on 29 March to indicate the direction they want to country to go. According to electoral laws, all votes are counted, verified and displayed outside each polling station. This is especially useful since much of the rigging has taken place in the counting of the vote. Voting ended at 7pm and, in an unprecedented move, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission delayed announcing results for at least 36 hours and only started a slow process of announcing results at 6am on Monday, 31 March. The MDC, through its elections directorate, simply collected and collated all votes displayed outside polling stations and announced a resounding victory for Tsvangirai’s MDC.

Because of the highly suspicious behaviour of ZEC of taking too long to announce official results, there are genuine fears that Mugabe and ZAN U PF want to subvert the will of the people and silence the people who have spoken through the ballot by fixing figures and announcing that Mugabe and ZANU Pf as winners. There are rumours now swilling in Harare that security chiefs are in marathon meetings preparing to rig elections and prepare to crush any challenge to their electoral fraud.

I must say the conduct of ZEC is reckless and inconsiderate as it puts the nation at risk of a Kenya style revolt as the absence of official results for no apparent reason creates tension and anxiety in the people. It is criminal and treasonous for security chiefs to interfere with the counting of the vote and the announcements; security chiefs must be warned that days of lawlessness and mayhem in Zimbabwe are over, in a new Zimbabwe we will hold them to account for their actions. If Zimbabwe’s army and police think that they can hold the nation hostage they are dreaming; no-one can stop the wind of change that is sweeping across Zimbabwe, not Mugabe, not Chihuri, and not Chiwenga. Mugabe has said his conscience will not let him sleep if he steals an election (l wonder how he has managed to sleep since 2000), so he must heed his conscience and do the honourable thing of respecting the will of the nation. Zimbabwe needs a new political leadership with fresh ideas. Zimbabwe cannot move on with Mugabe at helm; Mugabe must go, and he must go now before he plunges our beloved country into chaos and bloodshed.

ZANU PF may want to take comfort in the knowledge that they have rigged before and there was no uprising and South Africa and others looked away and pretended all was well. That was then, this time the people of Zimbabwe will defend their vote; the prospect of another disastrous five years with Mugabe and ZANU PF is motivation enough to take the struggle to the next level, on the streets. What Zimbabwe needs is a new leader with fresh ideas, not the look-east nonsense and diet of starvation that we have known with Mugabe. This time the rigging is easier to expose because results are displayed at polling stations; so we must defend the vote and pray that all patriotic and peace loving security forces must join the people of Zimbabwe and say no to Mugabe. Let us all stand up and act to stop Mugabe squandering our future.

The people of South Africa must stand in solidarity with us in Zimbabwe during this, our hour of great need, and prevail on Thabo Mbeki to demand that Mugabe respects the will of the people. The African Union has rejected all forms of unconstitutional changes of government and the massive electoral fraud unfolding in Zimbabwe is clearly unconstitutional and must be severely condemned as such by AU. In the case of Kenya, the African Union led the international community in activating the international duty to protect the fundamental rights of Kenyans, sadly, it was after considerable loss of life. My appeal to Mbeki and SADC is that they help stop this madness in Zimbabwe now before Mugabe plunges us into total darkness. It is with a heavy heart and tears in my eyes that l write this appeal. Now that the people have spoken, Mugabe and ZANU PF have a moral and legal obligation to give expression to the voice of the people and the respect the outcome of the elections. In Shona we say, Chisingaperi Chinoshura - which extorts all to know that everything has an end; for Mugabe and ZANU PF’s leadership of Zimbabwe the end has come and l urge them to accept it.

*Dewa Mavhinga, Zimbabwean Human Rights Lawyer.

The SADC Observer Mission to the 2008 elections noted several anomalies that run against the grain of the principles of democratic elections within the southern African region but still endorsed the process leading to the 29 March elections as free and fair.

Addressing journalists in Harare on 30 March 2008, the head of the mission Jose Marcos Barrica noted the issues of equal access to the state media by political parties and candidates, access to information on the electoral process and the “irresponsible statements” by security chiefs, as some of the anomalies. He, however, said the issue of access to the state media had improved as the election date drew close.

Barrica said the statements by the security chiefs such as Police Commissioner General Augustine Chihuri and Commissioner of Prisons Paradzai Zimondi that they would not salute Morgan Tsvangirai leader of the opposition MDC in the event of him winning the presidential race, should have been publicly denounced.

In its preliminary report on the elections, the observer mission also noted that information on the electoral and voting process should also have been published in advance but still commended the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) for doing everything to ensure that the elections would be held despite the logistical problems encountered.

It its pre-election position findings on the presidential, parliamentary, senatorial and local government elections held on 29 March 2008, MISA-Zimbabwe noted with grave concern that with polling only a few weeks away and almost four years after the adoption of the SADC Guidelines, there is little evidence on the Zimbabwean government’s willingness to relax its grip on the state media and allow opposition political parties or opposing voices to freely air their campaign messages and views on ZBC radio and television.

MISA-Zimbabwe noted that ZBC, Zimbabwe’s sole national state broadcaster continued to demonstrate its partisan tendencies where it concerns providing fair, balanced and equitable coverage of the ensuing election campaigns.

The live broadcast of the launch of the ruling Zanu PF’s election manifesto by ZBC on 29 March 2008 to the exclusion of a similar exercise by the opposition MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai the previous week at Sakubva Stadium in Mutare and that of Independent presidential candidate, Simba Makoni in Bulawayo is one such glaring omission or commission denying citizens access to alternative information which should have been noted by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) in its mandate.

In terms of the Electoral Laws Act (As Amended 2008), ZEC should also have drawn up regulations for free, fair and balanced access to public broadcasting. As of 4 March 2008 and 25 days before polling ZEC was still to come up with such regulations for purposes of monitoring the media to ensure accurate and fair coverage of the elections to stem encouragement of violence, racial, ethnic and religious hatred.

Meanwhile, asked why the SADC election team had endorsed the elections as having been free and fair when ZEC was still to announce the results almost 20 hours after polling had closed at 7pm on 29 March 2008, Barrica said their mandate was only restricted to observing the pre-election period in terms of the SADC Guidelines.

Urging all political parties to respect the will of the people, he warned Zimbabweans against allowing for the prospect of civil war saying as an Angolan he had the experience of the negative impact of that scenario.

“I reiterate SADC’s commitment to continue supporting the people of Zimbabwe in their efforts to deepen democracy and realise the dignity of Zimbabweans. The voice of the people of Zimbabwe need to be heard and heard by the people of Zimbabwe,” said Barrica.

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International development agencies, Progressio, Trócaire, Tearfund and FEPA today call for immediate action to stop what appears to impartial observers as government-led election rigging of Zimbabwe’s March 29th polls.

All four agencies are concerned about the slow release of election results, which as Noel Kututwa, Chairperson of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network says “is fuelling speculation that there could be something going on”. Marwick Khumalo, head of the Pan-African Parliamentary Observer Mission, has also expressed concern over the delay.

Our mutual partner, Pastor Promise of the Zimbabwe Christian Alliance said: “SADC principles and guidelines governing democratic elections stipulate that counting of votes shall be done at the polling stations. This was done and completed yet ZEC is withholding the results which are already public knowledge as they were posted outside each polling station. With Kenya’s violence so fresh in our minds, it is not acceptable to delay the timely announcement of results as if to provoke the already highly charged electorate. It’s extremely urgent that ZEC announces all the results immediately.”

Specifically, the agencies are concerned that:

- In some cases, officially announced votes do not appear to be tallying with those registered and displayed at polling stations;

- It has taken over 30 hours to collate and begin to announce election results, which were posted up outside polling stations two days ago;

- The pace of announcement has been painfully slow. By 3pm on Monday 31st March the Electoral Commission had announced parliamentary poll results for only 30 out of 210 constituencies. Results for senatorial and presidential polls are also still pending;

- The delay in announcing results and the failure of the Electoral Commission to satisfactorily explain the delays to the general public is contributing to tensions and could lead to a situation of instability in the country;

- The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has already issued its statement on the elections. According to article 6.1.12 of the SADC guidelines, observers monitoring elections are obliged to issue a statement on 'conduct AND outcome'. The SADC observer mission only issued a statement on conduct of elections yesterday afternoon and has now declared its work finished.

In light of these serious concerns, we urge governments to take the following critical actions:

- African and especially southern African leaders should ensure that the SADC observer mission fulfils its obligations to the people of Zimbabwe by following through on assessing the counting process and declared outcome of the polls;

- There should be an SADC investigation and response to the allegations of fraud made by independent outside and domestic analysts and observers, in particular with respect to why the announcement of results was delayed when polling stations results were already reported;

- African Union and national leaders should be prepared to lead a process of mediation in the event of a disputed outcome;

- The UK, Ireland, EU and member states should encourage African leaders to insist that the SADC principles are rigorously followed, in particular on ensuring that the results announced reflect the will of the people;

- Security forces in Zimbabwe are also urged to respect the verdict of the people.

*Progressio is an international development agency working for sustainable development and the eradication of poverty.

**Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

The government of Zimbabwe has been condemned for barring leading international news media from covering the next weekend's general elections. Zimbabwe's act is not in tandem with international conventions it had signed, guaranteeing "total access to national and international media." The Paris-based Reporters sans frontiers the government's act forms part of its designed authoritarian measures and irregularities.

In collaboration with both its European andZimbabwean partners, Zimbabwe Watch organised a roundtable titled“Elections and Post-Elections period in Zimbabwe: What to do after 29 March2008 - Views from Civil Society and Dialogue with the European Union” on 13 March 2008 in Brussels. The roundtable brought together civil society activists from Zimbabwe, officials of the European Union (EU) institutions and variousEuropean and international interest groups. These are the recommendations from the round-table.

1. The conditions for the elections are such that they will not be free nor fair and therefore cannot be called a legitimate expression of the will of the people. The African Union (AU) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) should be encouraged to make objective assessments of the conditions and the process based on the SADC Guidelines on Free and Fair Elections. The European Union (EU) should welcome such assessments that recognise the unfree and unfair environment. If the AU and SADC fail to recognise this, the EU needs to voice a very clear position on the the unfree and unfair nature of the elections and condemn these partial assessment. The international community must exert pressure on the Zimbabwean government to restore the rule of law.

2. The delegation of the European Commission in Harare will produce a report on the election process and outcomes. The EU Commission needs to consult relevant Zimbabwean and European civil society organisations and include their inputs in this report as well as in the EU’s common position on the elections. This report and the EU conclusions will should refer explicitly to the SADC Guidelines for free and fair elections and look at the longer term election environment which can already be considered as not conducive for free and fair elections.

3. After the elections, a new fully inclusive AU led mediation process that leads to a transitional process need to take place. This mediation must include not only the political parties but also Zimbabwean Civil Society and take place in an open, transparent and accountable process. Such a process should be actively supported by the EU.

4. SADC proposed and started discussing an economic recovery plan for Zimbabwe in 2007 but they will need the support of the international community to implement this plan. The EU should work together with SADC (and with the broader international community) through its regional assistance programme on a broad economic, political and social recovery plan. This process must be strongly inclusive of Zimbabwean Civil Society (including Trade Union). Any recovery plan must reflect the demands and needs of Zimbabwean Civil Society while having good governance and human rights as key concepts.

5. For such a recovery plan to be devised initial audits of all the relevant sectors (such as education, health, land, etc – not only the economy) needs to be undertaken. For example proper accounting of the education sector is required and support to local research institutions and universities is needed. In addition a comprehensive census, including of Zimbabweans outside the country, is needed for planning the recovery. Such a recovery plan needs sustainable planning and clear commitments from the EU for at least the next ten years.

6. The new Africa strategy emphasises common principles on human rights and governance, the role of civil society and regional approaches – the EU should together with SADC develop regional programs on governance, human rights and crisis prevention in which Zimbabwe can be addressed. Europe must develop and maintain a consistent position on Zimbabwe which also responds to the needs and demands of the Zimbabwean Civil Society. The EU must look at all the policy and financial instruments it has at its disposal (such as the Cotonou agreement, the EU-Africa strategy, human rights, peace and security and crisis prevention instruments) to engage SADC and AU partners on Zimbabwe in a principled manner. It must consider Zimbabwe as a military crisis and bring SADC and the AU to look at it in this way e.g. by having SADC excluding Zimbabwe from joint military operations. The EU must investigate if they support regional military training which includes Zimbabwe and pressure for their exclusion from such programs.

7. The European Commission has produced a draft Country Strategy Paper (CSP) in negotiation with the current Zimbabwean government for the spending of the 10th EDF. It plans to adopt it as soon as the political situation allows it. This is not the way to go. The EU has stopped bilateral aid because the current government is not following good governance rules and is not accountable. The EU therefore needs to re-open the negotiation of the CSP with an eventual new (transitional) government and negotiate the key sectors with them and Non-State actors in a very inclusive, transparent and accountable manner. This must apply for any assistance to any new (transitional) government.

8. The influence of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) should be fostered in Zimbabwe, so that labour standards are observed and upheld and serious abuses stopped. Zimbabwe should be answerable to the ILO.

9. The International community should now start to plan for and deploy assistance programmes for the coming transition phase including recovery policy development plans by Zimbabwean Civil Society. Planning the transition is campaigning for it! In the event of significant power shifts leading to a transitional government and policy changes, swift support for the reconstruction of institutions, especially the justice, police, banking and education sector must be available.

10. Continued support to civil society organisations as providers of checks and balances for the human rights situation is needed. Protection of human rights defenders (HRDs), especially in the case of escalating post-election violence and security/military clampdowns needs to be prioritised and the EU and member states must find urgent ways to provide necessary support. Adequate actions need to be devised in accordance with the demands from HRD’s themselves, the EU Guidelines on Human Rights Defenders and the Handbook linked to them provide examples of such actions including observation of demonstrations and trials, visits in prison or hospital, staying in touch with the HRD’s and providing safe houses.

11. The EU must support the strengthening of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council and making the AU Peace and Security instruments more effective and operational, using Zimbabwe as a test case. The full implementation of the African Charter of Peoples and Human Rights, which Zimbabwe signed, must be demanded. In view of the military nature of Mugabe’s regime, no Zimbabwean participation in international peace and military interventions, in the context of the UN or the African Union, must be allowed.

12. Silence of the United Nations Human Rights Council to post-election violence would not be acceptable; it must then come up with a clear resolution. The Mugabe government must be pressurised particularly by African countries to extend an open invitation to all UN human rights special rapporteurs (such as the one on torture) to the country. The EU must work with African partners to ensure such steps. The EU must also continue the monitoring of the human rights violations on the ground and engage the AU and African countries to implement the resolutions coming out of the Afican Commission on Human and People’s Rights condemning the human rights abuses in Zimbabwe. Finally, in the event of escalating post-election violence, Zimbabwe needs to be referred to the UN Security Council.