Nigeria: Day of the locusts

Asari and his foes have pulled back from the brink in the Niger Delta but the threat remains. After Mujahid Dokubo Asari's 'Operation Locust Feast' effectively declared war against Olusegun Obasanjo's government and oil companies working in Nigeria on 1 October, world oil prices soared above US $50 a barrel and Obasanjo feared the threat of more violence. The crisis was unfolding on three levels: local clashes over oil shipments and political rights; national political competition between state governors and presidency; and the effects of these conflicts on an already volatile world oil market. Asari stated that while his group had put down their weapons for the moment, they were willing to pick them up again if his demands were not met or if the government threatened him.

Beyond the three-sided conflict in Rivers State – between Asari, Ateke Tom (Asari's former rival for political control and theft operations) and the government task force, Operation Flush Out 3 – there are the crime and political syndicates which sponsor their own gangs which carry out hijacking, kidnapping of oil workers, protection and other criminal rackets which supplement the gangs’ income from bunkering.

There are also hundreds of disputes in the Delta. As Asari and Tom were talking peace with Obasanjo, Operation Flush Out 3, which was formed to take out Asari and other ‘cultists’ whom Rivers Governor Peter Odili blames for the crisis, was drawn into a dispute in Bille and Ke, two small communities in Degema Local Government Area. Shooting their way to negotiations Nigerian activists are drawing harsh lessons from the Delta crisis: taking up guns gets a place at the negotiating table, particularly if a group threatens economic assets. A leading human rights activist, Ayo Obe, said that the Delta events showed that while peaceful protesters were chased off the streets, armed opponents would be flown to to Abuja for high-level talks. She was sceptical that renewed talk of a national conference based on demands by ‘warlords’ would make progress.

Before peace talks, Odili called Asari a ‘joker’ and said that he couldn’t wage war on the government and oil companies. In fact, Asari is waging war through the international media, relying on the nervous oil market and the oil-hungry United States to push for deals to keep the oil flowing.

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