Ethiopia: Any lesson from Tahrir Square?

In the past few weeks we have witnessed a tremendous outburst of bottled up frustrations on the streets of Egypt’s cities. This spontaneous regeneration of Egyptian society is truly remarkable, and will undoubtedly leave a lasting residue on Egyptian society and the Arab world. It is also the first of its kind, in that, it was born out of the internet and continues to be sustained by it.

As I watched the events unfold, it became impossible not to think about the similarities with my own country of birth, Ethiopia. As many of us would agree, the circumstances faced by people in Ethiopia are not that much removed from the plight of those in the streets of Cairo. They revolve around the same issues. Without going into too much detail, the aspirations of the people orbit around basic necessities for a decent living. Unemployment, poverty, and rapid inflation are all too common in Ethiopia, just as they are in Egypt and around the region.

Underpinning these commonalities is bad governance and lack of democracy. As protesters in Egypt put it so diligently, it is the ‘deficiency in dignity’ which perpetuates their struggle. Though economic insecurity is the primary cause of revolt, what underscores and sustains it is the fight for dignity and common decency. In other words protesters are not just seeking bread, but also their dignity. It is what Thomas Jefferson so brilliantly coined as the pursuit of happiness.

For the past 30 years under the dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak, a vast majority of Egyptians were restricted from their pursuit or happiness. Similarly Ethiopians have lived under the iron fist for far too long. As in Egypt, Ethiopians suffer from rigid elections, human rights violations, nepotism, and corruption. Poverty is rampant, perhaps more so than in Egypt. Though the economic outlook is projecting significant growth year after year, people are increasingly finding it harder to climb the economic ladder. In fact they are falling backward, thanks to inflation. What explains this is the increasing concentration of wealth at the top while very little trickles down. How else would you explain increased economic growth with increased poverty?

During Mubarak’s time in power, Egypt has seen significant economic growth projections from the World Bank. Yet people were finding themselves poorer and poorer. To add to the indignant feelings already existent in Egyptian society, Mubarak and his associates were enriching themselves beyond the wildest dreams of ordinary Egyptians, all thanks to the rampant cronyism present among officials in power. Given this, it’s not hard to guess where that five per cent growth was heading. So who is to say Ethiopia doesn’t suffer from the same ailment? And could all of this lead to a spontaneous outburst like in Egypt? This might not happen today, but if the status quo doesn’t change, then revolt will be inevitable. The question is: how prepared are the people of Ethiopia to stage a peaceful revolution? Will we succeed or could the country be thrown into chaos?

Ethiopia is similar to Egypt in many ways, but the two countries are not entirely the same. Egyptians have better access to the internet and Arabic satellite television networks provide greater access to information. As a result, Egyptians are a lot more informed and connected. On the other hand, access to the internet in Ethiopia happens to be one of the lowest in the world. Cell phone distribution, according to a United Nations report, is also one of the lowest. For similar sentiments as those we are seeing in Egypt to reach critical mass and finally surface, a medium of communication is the key and Ethiopia currently lacks this, for reasons that have to do with government ownership of these industries. It is therefore reasonable to suggest revolt in Ethiopia is not an immediate worry for the regime. However, if living standards continue to plummet, Ethiopia will eventually find herself immersed in revolution.

It is anyone’s guess as to the direction of these uprisings. One would hope we would have learned a thing or two from our Egyptian counterparts and choose the peaceful route. One would also hope the Ethiopian armed forces would be magnanimous enough not to use lethal force on their compatriots. This is something the Egyptian army has, thus far, not done in Egypt. Judging by events that transpired in the aftermath of elections in 2005, whereby close to 200 people were shot dead, counting on the Ethiopian armed forces not to use lethal force could be wishful thinking.

Like Egypt, Ethiopia has a track record of using plainclothes security personnel, who will stop at nothing to crush dissent. This regime is even willing to foment ethnic and religious strife in order to preempt possible opposition. Given these circumstances, it is absolutely pertinent for activists to take notice of recent events in Egypt, as there is a lot to be learned there.

Certainly past experiences of popular expression in Ethiopia are encouraging. In particular, the peaceful gathering of over a million opposition supporters in the run up to the 2005 election was a great sign of civility. What people were unprepared for was the overwhelming use of violence and coercion perpetrated by the regime in the aftermath of the rigged election. Perhaps the biggest culprit is the lack of a free communication medium. This is where Egypt differs from Ethiopia. Pro-democracy protesters in Egypt had information through the internet and satellite television stations. This helped them not only to discern the tactics of the regime, but more importantly it gave them a voice. As a result they were better able to cope with the destructive strategy of the regime. In essence, pro-democracy forces in Ethiopia should be willing to utilise successful methods of activism that are peaceful. Egypt is a glimpse of what that would mean.

One of the promising signs of the demonstrations in Egypt has been the people’s ability to remain peaceful while disobedient. For decades, peaceful disobedience has been a proven tactic in bringing some semblance of decency to societies. Interestingly, authoritarian regimes prefer violent dissent, which they are confident of disrupting, as they hold the monopoly in violence.

Imagine the impression it leaves on the Arab world when Muslim and Christian Egyptians march shoulder to shoulder to demand their rights. It is a remarkable achievement when you consider, just a few months ago, these two communities were openly feuding. Recall the church burning that took place in Alexandria on New Year’s Day of 2011, and the aftershock it carried. Given these factors, it is an extraordinary turn around to see how this push for democracy has united large sectors of Egyptian society. With Egyptian society uniting around a common struggle, the regime found itself isolated. One can easily sense the significance of this for Ethiopian activists, also faced with a fractured society, seemingly insurmountable on the surface.

As Egyptians have shown in recent weeks, digging deeper reveals how that surface is truly paper-thin. Whatever happens in Egypt from this point on, one thing has been made certain. There is no way of putting this genie back in the bottle. Let us hope the fight for common decency extends throughout the Nile and into Ethiopia.

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* This article first appeared in Abugida information center The writer can be reached at [email][email protected]
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