WORLD CONFLICT: WORLD VICTIMS

As the US and the UK launch bombs on Afghanistan, the victims of terror will now extend far beyond New York City, to innocent people in Afghanistan and beyond. Even before the western bombs began to fall, in a report published last week the World Bank warned that the victims of the September 11 attacks in the US will extend to millions across the world, and in particular to Africa. The report says that the effects of those events alone will sharply hit economic growth in developing countries next year, condemning millions more people to live in poverty, and hampering the fight against childhood diseases, malnutrition and death.

In the words of World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn: "We estimate that tens of thousands more children will die worldwide and some 10 million more people are likely to be living below the poverty line of $1 a day because of the terrorist attacks. This is simply from loss of income. Many, many more people will be thrown into poverty if development strategies are disrupted."

While recent reports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) sent mixed messages about the ability of African countries to weather the impending global recession as against its ability to make longer term gains against poverty, after recent events there is now little doubt that global trade will be severely damaged, with its inevitable knock on effects for developing economies. In particular, the World Bank report notes, countries especially dependent on commodities, like many in Africa, are likely to be particularly hard hit by the severity of a downturn in global trade. The Bank estimates that Africa will now see possible increases in poverty of 2-3 million people as a result of lower growth and incomes, and a further 2 million people may be condemned to living below $1 a day. About half the additional 20,000-40,000 children worldwide estimated to die because of the US attacks, are also likely to be in Africa.

It is only inevitable now that the numbers of these appalling statistics will be added to as a result of the US decision to begin a war in Afghanistan and perhaps beyond, with the resulting destabilisation of global politics, the increased suffering of Afghan refugees and war casualties, and the loss of perspective and focus for many civil society initiatives.

The events of September 11 and beyond have, however only exacerbated deep-seated trends. As UNCTAD point out, economic growth alone is simply not going to deliver the prosperity that Africa needs. More fundamentally, there needs to be a complete restructuring of global trading terms if the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) of the world are to escape the chronic poverty trap; a restructuring that Western countries have so far successfully resisted. Over the past 50 years, average tariffs in Western markets on manufactured goods have fallen from 40 percent to 4 percent. But for agricultural products – the backbone of the exports of LDCs – tariffs have remained at 40-50 percent. LDC’s were promised greater access to Western markets during the last round of trade talks in Seattle in 1999; but this has so far failed to materialise. As a result, the effects of the current global destabilisation and recession will hit the poor far harder than they will the rich.

The fourth World Trade Organisation Ministerial Conference is scheduled to be held in Doha, Qatar, from 9-13 November. It is vital that this meeting goes ahead, and that it provides a venue for Western leaders to demonstrate that the political will exists to finally begin to organise global trade in a more equitable way. The LDCs, who met in Zanzibar in August, are demanding a 'New Deal' on trade, and greater access within the WTO itself in order to argue their case for fairer trading terms. As a result of the likely effects of world events on developing economies, even the World Bank has called for the trading round at the WTO this November to go ahead, and to be a “development round” motivated primarily by a desire to use trade as a tool for poverty reduction and development.

But it remains to be seen how Bush, Blair et al will respond to the impending disaster for millions in poverty across the globe. Before the West’s ‘counter offensive against terror’, it just seemed possible that the tragic events of September 11 could have been the wake-up call so desperately needed for a more equitable approach towards death by poverty, displacement and recession that afflict so many in developing countries. While it is still possible that the promises made at Genoa, and more recently by Blair for a “Marshall Plan” for Africa – and elsewhere – are honoured, the danger is that, as is usually the case, western leaders dig themselves deeper into the bunker than ever before, and in the name of ‘justice’, preside over a dangerous global destabilisation while continuing to block initiatives that would prevent further suffering and further victims of such destabilisation across the world.

Poverty To Rise in Wake Of Terrorist Attacks in US

Economic Development in Africa: Performances, Prospects and Policy Issues
http://www.unctad.org/en/pub/pogdsafricad1.en.htm
'Promises No Longer Enough' Say Countries Seeking Fair Trade
http://www.oxfam.org.uk/policy/papers/doha.html
Africa 'brushed aside' by WTO draft
http://www.attac.org/nonewround/doc/doc02.htm