Drogba’s Country looks at four major challenges facing the Ouattara regime in Cote d’Ivoire, while commenting on the rapid pace of normalisation in the country just months after the formal end of the civil war:

‘I haven’t seen too much analysis on the challenges facing Ivory Coast president Alassane Ouattara. What I have seen is very dominated, as my recent thinking has been, with talk about ‘recovering from the post-election crisis’. I’m beginning to think that there’s a risk of missing some bigger issues.

‘How can you get anything more difficult than recovering from a conflict, you might ask. Well, few thought that the threat of violence from the pro-Gbagbo camp would dissipate so quickly – leading diplomats here expected at least some terrorist style attacks on pro-Ouattara figures or some coup d’état/rebellion plots hatched from the exterior. I’m beginning to think that outside of the unrest in the West, there isn’t a major pro-Gbagbo military threat now.

‘The conflict also left the country’s infrastructure largely untouched – with 5.3% negative growth this year and 8-9% next year (IMF estimates) the recovery looks to be rapid. Abidjan does not resemble Tripoli and visitors I’ve had in the last few weeks had to search harder than you might expect to see find signs of a conflict…

‘It’s quite clear that Abidjan is looking in better shape than it has done for years and there are numerous signs of a new serious and disciplined government prepared to work for the good of its citizens. Yet, the vast programme of destruction known as “Operation Clean Country’, has bulldozer-ed hundreds if not thousands of small businesses. However noble the motivation, small entrepreneurs from the lower ends of society have lost the businesses they spent years establishing. Maybe they will quickly re-establish, legally, elsewhere. I hope so.’

Hotel Ivory shares this feeling of cautious optimism amid signs of post-war recovery:

‘Abidjan taxi drivers are almost all Ouattara supporters so they are a bit biased, but on issue of road conditions I think their assessment is as accurate as it gets. And what they say is that roads for the first time in a long time are getting better, pot holes are getting fixed, roads paved, and often they point out a stretch of road which they say previously was impassable.

‘Beside roadworks, another striking thing is that Abidjan has gotten cleaner. I mean there is still a lot to do, and you still see trash along the roads, in the lagoon and well everywhere, but it’s gotten better, and you see teams of cleaners at work all over the city.

‘Then we have the rush hour traffic jams which have moved two hours earlier in the morning due to the new administration emphasising punctuality and work ethic throughout the public sector.

‘All in all there are tons of undeniable signs that things are changing (and almost always for the better) which creates a sense of optimism. I have heard people say that one can start to be proud to be Ivorian again, and that under his first few months Ouattara has done more than Gbagbo did during 10 years…

‘Hopefully, the increased trust in Ivory Coast’s institutions is not just short term effect that will be eroded by corruption, but is based on fundamentals that are here to stay.’

Meanwhile, 1 October 2011 was the 50th anniversary of the reunification of the British Southern Cameroons and the French-speaking Republic of Cameroun. The highlight of the anniversary was the arrest of hundreds of Anglophone Cameroonians calling for a separate Southern Cameroons state. With presidential elections scheduled for October 9, Product from my Past wonders what the future holds for what the Washington Post described in 1967 as a ‘loveless African marriage’:

‘It is hard for this union to be seen as credible when until recent history, the English-speaking regions had no universities, all resources are administered centrally out of the Francophone capital Yaounde and Biya, a self-proclaimed “man of the people” hardly knows Anglophone Cameroon, visiting Bamenda – the heartland of the Anglophone opposition – last December for the first time in 20 years. Even for a reclusive leader, that’s some hiatus.

‘Still this forced marriage continues. The main reason highlighted in Stuart Notholt’s book, Fields of Fire: an atlas of ethnic conflict: “70% of Cameroon’s natural resources are located in Southern Cameroons.”

‘So knowing the history and the hangover from a partnership never fully, consciously entered, what next for Cameroon? Neither of the books I’ve read put forward any specific course of action…

‘So, the days roll on and the election draws nearer. In the absence of any robust campaigning or indeed any sign that the winds of change are blowing, many watch and wait, resigned to Biya’s return. As for the state of Southern Cameroons, we are left with the words of warning written by Dr Bernard Fonlon, an academic and intellectual, in a letter to Ahmadou Ahidjo, first president of Cameroon: “Let us not lose sight of the fact that seeds of discontent exist in our Federation. There is also frustration in the Federation.”

‘Those words, quoted from Imperialistic Politics in Cameroun, were written in 1964, three short years after Southern Cameroons joined la Republic du Cameroon. It seems not much changes.’

Sahel Blog comments on the national census in Mauritania which has once again highlighted racial tensions in that country:

‘“Afro-Mauritanians” fears that the government will manipulate census data reflect Mauritania’s history of racial conflict, but those fears also reflect worldwide trends. In many divided societies, there are communities who fear that governments will use population counts to control, favor, or under-represent different groups…

‘The census conflict points to the country’s racial tensions, but its also important to understand that race relations are not static in Mauritania. Since the 1970s, anti-slavery organizations and other political activist groups have changed the position of non-white groups in Mauritania, especially the haratine or “black Moors.” Earlier this year at Northwestern I was lucky to see a presentation by Dr. Zekaria Ould Ahmed Salem of the University of Nouakchott, who talked about how some haratine figures are breaking into public and community life in new ways, for example by becoming imams. I am not saying this to minimize Mauritania’s conflicts or downplay its problems, but to point out that the racial picture there changes in profound ways over time. Even these current protests, from the little I know of Mauritanian history, would have been unthinkable fifty years ago, and can therefore be seen as another sign of change.

‘The government’s determination to complete the census means it will go forward, but the protesters stand as a warning to the government that a significant segment of the population is watching carefully to see how it uses the data.’

The Zambian Economist revisits the election of Michael Sata as President of Zambia with an article by Michael Meyer:

‘The result of the presidential election in Zambia – scarcely made a blip. True, Zambia is a small African country, far from the international spotlight. Events there seldom reverberate globally. Certainly, the Zambians’ achievement cannot compete with the intervention in Libya or the drama of the Arab Spring. And yet, what happened in Zambia is related to those developments – and thus relevant everywhere.

‘What made Zambia’s election so important is that the challenger won. Indeed, he defeated an incumbent who really wanted to keep his job, and who might reasonably have been tempted to follow the lead of other African leaders defeated in a popular vote by simply refusing to accept the result. After all, smooth transitions of power are not to be taken for granted.

‘In 2005, government forces in Ethiopia shot opposition supporters following a contested election. Kenya erupted in violence in 2007, after a presidential election in which the voting, and the subsequent counting of ballots, was deeply suspect. In 2008, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe refused to accept his loss in a first-round presidential ballot and forced his opponent to drop out for the second…A similar scenario played out in Côte d’Ivoire…

‘Contrast all this to Zambia. There, election officials announced the result of the vote – 36% for President Rupiah Banda versus 43% for his opponent, Michael Sata. Hackers broke into the election commission’s Web site, delaying the announcement. But there was no challenge, either from the government or the opposition. On September 23, Banda conceded, with remarkable grace. The people had spoken, he said; he would abide by their wishes.’

Scribbles from the Den carries the English version of a recent interview in Cameroonian scholar Achille Mbembe contends that regime change cannot occur in Cameroon via the ballot box:

“In the current circumstance, regime change is not possible through the ballot box. Change in this country will come through an armed rebellion spearheaded or not by a political organization or by foreign forces (as was the case in Cote d’Ivoire); through the natural death or assassination of the autocrat; or even through a coup de force by dissident elements within the army. Beyond that, all paths to a peaceful change initiated by Cameroonians themselves are blocked. From this perspective, the forthcoming election is a non event...’

So why has President Biya been able to stay in power for 29 years? According to Mbembe:

‘The regime has largely succeeded in imposing a generalized tonton-macoutization of minds. Objectively, it no longer needs to use physical force….

‘The President is surrounded by scores of elderly individuals who are determined not to die alone. They, therefore, keep watch over diverse concentric circles, and fan the embers of hate and jealousy among social juniors whom they dominate. Like in ancient despotic regimes, Biya has perfected the art of manipulation. People live on the hope of being appointed, at a future date, to a high ranking position in government, from where they will enjoy the honors and prebends that come with positions of power within the state apparatus. The president uses this grim desire as a tool to literarily cast a spell on, and paralyze society. Appointments, dismissals, falls from grace, loss, and imprisonment, then spectacular returns to grace, are strategies that successfully keep the elite on a tight leash.’

BROUGHT TO YOU BY PAMBAZUKA NEWS

* Dibussi Tande blogs at Scribbles from the Den.
* Please send comments to editor[at]pambazuka[dot]org or comment online at Pambazuka News.