Mozambique: Election offices open

MOZAMBIQUE
POLITICAL PROCESS
BULLETIN

Issue 30 - 27 August 2004
Part 2 of 2

Editor: Joseph Hanlon ([email protected])
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga

Material may be freely reprinted.
Please cite the Bulletin.

Published by AWEPA, the
European Parliamentarians for Africa
=================================================

IN THIS ISSUE

Registration and run-up to Mozambique's third multi-party presidential and
parliamentary elections on Wednesday and Thursday 1 and 2 December.

Part 1:
Registration and register book chaos
Mozambique probably has 8.1 million voters

Part 2:
Looking ahead to the December elections
Election law changes
Election calendar
Violence in Tete
Final reports on 2003 local elections

=================================================
LOOKING TOWARD
THE DECEMBER
ELECTION

Mozambique's third multi-party presidential and parliamentary elections
will be Wednesday and Thursday 1 and 2 December. Formal campaigning only
begins on 17 October, but both major parties have opened their elections
offices and begun campaigning in earnest.
Elections will be carried out in a manner very similar to previous
elections. But there are two significant changes. After widespread
complaints about Frelimo using government vehicles and facilities, there
is now a ban on the use by a party of any government goods or property
("bens"). And polling station staff, police and journalists can now vote
at any polling station; in past years they had been effectively
disenfranchised because they were only allowed to vote at the polling
station where they were on the register.
But the law has not made any changes to the non-transparent and confusing
counting process at national level which takes so long that it has never
met the legal deadline. So it seems unlikely that final results will be
available by 17 December.
But approximate results will be known much earlier. Provincial results
are supposed to be announced within a week (although some of those, as
well, will probably be late). Both major parties are doing their own
counts and will have reasonably accurate results within two days. Radio
Mozambique did a good parallel count of the local elections, using its
journalists, and something similar is expected this year.
The total cost of presidential and parliamentary elections will be $21.5
million. The European Union has provided 12 million Euros (now about $14
mn) and UNDP will provide $1 million. The rest of the money will come from
the government budget. The EU has paid for past elections and controlled
the money very tightly; this time the money was provided as special budget
support, handed over in June. Thus all funding for the election this year
(other than the UNDP money) is part of the government budget and is
controlled directly by government and not by the donor community.

OBSERVATION AND PARALLEL COUNT

There will again be both national and international observation. The
Electoral Observatory has now expanded to six local NGOs, including all of
those active in election observation. It will have up to 2500 national
observers and will also do a sample count of the presidential election.
The sample count, known as a "quick count" or "parallel vote tabulation"
(PVT), will involve collecting results from several hundred polling
stations or polling centres selected to give an accurate national picture.
The Observatory did full counts for several municipalities and sample
counts for some others in the local elections last year, which provided an
accurate prediction of the results. There was some opposition to the
process last year, particularly from Frelimo, but that opposition has
evaporated after the experience of the local elections. In effect, the
Observatory results served to validate the accuracy of the official count.
And the Observatory did not publish its results before the full official
results were announced, so the CNE did not see it as competition.
Switzerland, Sweden, Britain and the Netherlands have contributed
$900,000 to the Observatory for civic education, conflict management,
observation and the PVT. Separately (as always) the United States is also
contributing $500,000 to the PVT.
International observation will include the Carter Center and probably the
European Union. The EU wants to sign a memorandum of understanding with
the CNE and the government on observation. In a draft submitted to the CNE
in early August, the EU demanded more access to the final counting and
tabulation process in the CNE and STAE offices in Maputo. Observers and
press were excluded from those areas in 2003, but the EU says that without
access, its observation will not be useful. The EU in Brussels has still
not agreed to a Mozambique observation, and it could still decide not to
have one.
The Electoral Institute of Southern Africa (EISA) is opening an office in
Maputo with $535,000 from Britain and Switzerland for a programme
involving conflict prevention and attempts to increase transparency.
In the 1999 national elections, there were 2000 national observers and
300 foreign observers.

NEW ELECTION LAW:
SIMILAR TO 1998 & 2003

The new election law (Lei no 7/2004 de 17 de Junho) is almost identical to
the law for the 1999 national elections (4/99) and very similar to that
for last year's local elections (19/2002).
The law retains the 5% threshold for parties to enter parliament -- a
party or coalition must obtain at least 5% of the national vote to have
MPs elected. Thus a party which wins enough votes to gain a seat in one
province, such as Zambezia, will not be given that seat unless it has more
than 5% of the total national vote.

. WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS .

Eight significant changes have been introduced, all responding to problems
in previous elections:
+ Polling station staff, police and journalists can now vote at any
polling station. Previously voters could only vote at the polling station
where they were on the register, which disenfranchised most polling staff.
+ Following complaints from the opposition and observers about Frelimo
using government vehicles and facilities, there is now a ban on the use by
a party of any goods or property ("bens") of central government, local
government, or state owned or controlled companies. (This does not, of
course, apply to things available to all, such as the use of public halls.)
+ Following the omission of some party symbols from ballot papers last
year, parties now have the right to check proof copies of the ballot paper
before printing.
+ Party polling station agents (delegados de candidaturas) will receive
their credential from the district election commission, ending a confusion
in previous elections.
+ Counting will still be done at provincial level, but results will also
be published district-by-district.
+ Voting can no longer be extended for a third day.
+ In an attempt to reduce the large number of errors made by tired polling
stations staff, on the formal results sheets compiled after the count
("actas" and "editais") the number of votes gained by each candidate must
be written in both figures and words.
+ In the event of other documents being missing, the copies of actas and
editais given to party polling station agents can be used for the count.
(This follows an incident in Beira in the 2003 local elections, in which
records from several polling stations disappeared, and Frelimo refused to
allow the copies of actas to be used.)

Four changes introduced last year for local elections are maintained:
+ Exit polls are effectively banned. No opinion polls can be published
between the start of the campaign and the declaration of results.
+ Because some party polling station agents (delegados de candidaturas)
are illiterate, they were not able to write down accurately the results
after the count, for use by parties for their own parallel count. Now
delegados in each polling station are given a copy of the official summary
sheet (edital) and formal minutes (acta) to take back to their party.
+ At least two of the five polling station staff must speak the local
language.
+ Polling station staff are hired in a public competition and parties are
allowed to suggest candidates.

. BUT MANY PROBLEMS REMAIN
OVER SEATS AND COUNTS

Four serious problems in past electoral laws have not been resolved.
+ First, the method for allocating the number of parliamentary seats to
each province has not been changed and remains arithmetically wrong; there
are supposed to be 250 seats, but when the method was used in 1999 it led
to the allocation of 251 seats, and one seat had to be arbitrarily taken
away from one province to bring the number back down to 250.
+ Second, all spoiled ballot papers (nulos) must be sent to the National
Election Commission in Maputo and rechecked. In 1999, the CNE reassessed
500,000 ballot papers and accepted 130,000 as valid and added them to the
results. There simply is not enough time to recheck that many ballot
papers, and results have been late in every previous election because of
this. It has often been suggested that this rechecking could be done at
provincial level.
+ Third, with the exception that the number of votes be given in both
figures and words, no change has been made in procedures for polling
station staff to complete editais. Staff are tired after two days of
voting and then an all-night count, and many mistakes are made. In 1999,
6.6% of presidential editais and 8.7% of parliamentary editais were
excluded from the final count because of errors which could not be
resolved. (The CNE could still issue regulations and design a better
edital form, but this is not set out in the law.)
+ Fourth, there are no rules on the transparent development, timely
testing, and publication of computer software used in the tabulation in
Maputo. Renamo has often complained about the use of computers, and the
secrecy makes tampering possible. Although parallel counts provide some
check, the law does not require the publication of clear polling station
by polling station results, making comparisons harder.

OBSERVERS CANNOT TALK TO VOTERS
WITHIN 300m OF A POLLING STATION

The law clarifies previously confused rules about limits to activities
near polling stations. Now, within 300 metres of a polling station, no
voter can say who they voted for or planned to vote for. Observers and
journalists are not allowed to talk to voters within this area. Also,
within 300 meters of the polling station there can be no campaign posters
or material, and no one is allowed to display a party symbol or other
political symbol, nor wear a party t-shirt or party cloth (capulana).

ELECTION CALENDAR

The election calendar is set by law, and is:

2 October: deadline for presidential nominations; each presidential
candidate must submit 10,000 signatures and other required documents to
the Constitutional Council.

7 October: deadline for parliamentary nominations which must be submitted
to the National Election Commission (CNE); requiring certificate of no
criminal record plus various other documents for each candidate.

16 October: list of candidates published by CNE

17 October - 28 November: official electoral campaign; gives parties and
candidates extra rights. No opinion polls.

1 November: CNE must publish list of all polling stations

10 November: deadline for parties and candidates to submit names of
polling station agents (delegados), and to which polling station they are
to be assigned, to the district election commission.

29, 30 November: quiet period, no campaigning allowed

1,2 December: election

2 December into morning of 3 December: count in polling station

4 December: all polling station summary sheets (editais), minutes (actas)
and spoiled and protested ballot papers must be submitted to the
provincial election commission. Copies of editais and spoiled and
protested ballot papers then go to CNE.

9 December: deadline for publication of provincial results.

17 December: deadline for publication of national results by CNE, with
copies submitted to the Constitutional Council for verification.

There is no deadline for action by the Constitutional Council. But after
the validation and proclamation of the results by the Constitutional
Council, the calendar is:
+ Within 2 days of proclamation, order publication in Boletim da Republica.
+ Within 15 days of publication, new parliament opens.
+ Within 8 days of parliament opening, new President is inaugurated.

Deadlines for registration of observers and journalists remain to be
defined by the CNE.

THE BULLETIN PREDICTS
RESULTS WILL BE DELAYED
AGAIN THIS YEAR

Although the law requires the CNE to publish results by 17 December, the
results will surely be delayed, as they were in 1999 and 2003. Parliament
(AR), the CNE and STAE have all failed to tackle the fundamental problems
which caused the delays. There are five key problems: errors in editais,
reconsideration of invalid votes (nulos), counting procedure in the CNE,
dealing with protests, and the size of the CNE.
EDITAIS: In 1999, nearly one-fifth of the summary results sheets
(editais) submitted by polling stations contained errors. Mistakes are
made by tired polling station staff finishing the count in the early hours
of the morning, after two nights with little sleep. Some of these errors
are simple, for example listing the parties in the order of number of
votes, instead of in the order they appeared on the ballot paper, or
columns which do not add up correctly. These are resolved at provincial
level.
But some errors have no obvious resolution, and there is no mechanism for
recounts. These editais are often sent on to the CNE at national level. In
1999 the CNE had to look at nearly 2000 editais. The CNE corrected and
included 297 presidential editais but it rejected and excluded 550 - 6.6%
of all polling stations. For the parliamentary election, the CNE corrected
and accepted 300 editais but rejected and excluded 727 - more than 8.7% of
polling stations. That means the votes of more than 300,000 people were
not counted in each of the presidential and parliamentary elections,
because of errors in the editais. This provoked a Renamo walkout of the
CNE on 22 December 1999.
Two changes have been made which will slightly reduce the error rate: all
numbers must be written in both words and figures, and polling station
staff now have calculators. Changes in the design of the edital and
changes to the law allowing recounts would be required to really reduce
the number of errors, but these changes have not been made. So we can
expect more than 1000 editais to be passed to the CNE for reconsideration,
causing an unexpected delay in the counting process.
NULOS: In past elections, about 8% of all ballot papers have been ruled
invalid by polling station staff, usually because of multiple marks or
because the X or fingerprint overlaps two candidates. The law requires
that every invalid ballot paper (nulo) be reconsidered in Maputo. In 1999,
the CNE reconsidered 194,345 presidential votes and accepted 30% of them
as valid -- that is, it decided that even with multiple or inaccurate
marks, the will of the voter was clear. It reconsidered 309,139
parliamentary votes, and accepted 23% as valid. This process is carried
out by STAE under the supervision of CNE members from both parties, but it
remains time consuming to ship to Maputo and reprocess more than 500,000
ballot papers. A similar number can be expected this year.
COUNTING: The law says that provincial election commissions should add up
the editais, and that the role of the CNE is simply to add the revalidated
nulos and declare a result. Reconsideration of editais passed on from
provincial level is not even mentioned in the law. Furthermore, copies of
all editais are faxed to the CNE, which does its own alternative count to
compare to that done at provincial level. There is no clear procedure for
bringing together the two counts and the reconsidered editais and nulos.
In both 1994 and 1999 this generated considerable delays, confusion and
Renamo walkouts, and is sure to create delays and conflict this year.
PROTESTS: Protests and complaints should be dealt with first at local
level and only later passed to national CNE level. But the failure to
respond to Renamo protests at local level this year underlines the lack of
systems to do this. In the 2003 local elections, the CNE did not develop a
smooth or consistent way of dealing with complaints. This means that
consideration of each protest becomes very time consuming.
CNE SIZE: The current CNE has 19 members and many want to speak in every
discussion. This means that even the simplest issue can take several hours
to decide. CNE President Litsure tries to reach consensus, which means a
discussion can go on all day. If a vote is taken, voting is always along
party lines, and Frelimo has a majority. This polarisation means that
Renamo feels its protests are never given fair consideration. This, in
turn, increases tension and distrust, which generates either longer Renamo
speeches or Renamo absences, which further slows the process.
Taken together, this suggests it will be impossible for the CNE to reach
an agreed and accurate result by 17 December, and that a delay until after
Christmas is likely.

IN LONDON TOO

Invalid ballot papers are not just a problem in developing counties.
Britain uses ballot papers similar to Mozambique. In municipal elections
in London in June this year, more than 500,000 ballot papers were invalid.
That was 7% of the total, or about the same level as Mozambique.

RENAMO HARASSED
IN TETE -- AGAIN

Renamo reports that its election monitors have been harassed were
confirmed by the Bulletin correspondent in Tete, Estevao Lichowa. He
reports that in Magoe district, in the far west of the province, four
houses of Renamo members were destroyed by Frelimo party supporters and
that Renamo party workers were stopped from accompanying the registration
process in Frelimo brigades. In Chifunde district, in the north of the
province, our correspondent reports that the Renamo delegate was detained
by the administrator for flying the Renamo flag. In both districts, this
was enough to frighten Renamo and reduce the number of party monitors
accompanying the registration process, he reports.

Renamo claimed on 5 July that its party monitors had been expelled from
Changara and Chifunde districts, and that monitors in Magoe, Songo and
Zobue district had been beaten.

Tete was the one place where Frelimo violence against Renamo was confirmed
in the 1999 national elections. The Mozambique Peace Process Bulletin 24
(Jan 2000) reported that Renamo had been expelled from Changara district
and there were no Renamo monitors in polling stations in that district.
Without opposition monitors present, there were indications of ballot box
stuffing in Changara in 1999. There were also indications of tampering
with results sheets in Chifunde in that year.

Renamo party workers have also been attacked in the north of Cabo Delgado
province. In an incident in Muidumbe district, our correspondent reports
that local people expelled Renamo representatives. Muidumbe on the Mueda
plateau was the location of Frelimo's "central base" during the liberation
war and has always been vociferously pro-Frelimo. In the 1994 election,
Renamo head Afonso Dhlakama was stoned when he appeared here.

Renamo also reports harassment in Mueda and Nangade districts in northern
Cabo Delgado, but this has not been confirmed.

'PRE-CAMPAIGN' BEGINS

All the parties have started campaigning, in what in Mozambique tends to
be called the "pre-campaign" as it comes before the 43-day official
campaign period. Frelimo presidential candidate Armando Guebuza has
already visited most districts at least twice. Frelimo also benefits from
more extensive and favourable coverage in the state-owned daily Noticias,
which is only bound by balance and fairness rules during the official
campaign.
In local elections, Renamo only won four cities, many fewer than
expected. Renamo officials were shocked, and admit now to having been
overconfident, expecting people who voted for them in 1999 to also vote
for them in local elections. In fact, Renamo's vote was strong only in
those areas, such as Beira, where it had a strong campaign and was able to
mobilise its supporters to actually go to the polling stations. Frelimo,
on the other hand, showed that it had the organisation necessary to ensure
its core vote.
Renamo has started its campaign much more slowly, and seems short of
money. This year, in contrast to 1999, there is no donor fund for the
political parties.

DOMINGOS TO STAND

Raul Domingos and his Party for Peace, Democracy and Development (PDD,
Partido para a Paz, Democracia e Desenvolvimento) will stand in the
general elections, Domingos announced on 21 July.
Domingos, number two in Renamo until he was expelled, could take votes
away from Dhlakama in the presidential contest. Domingos' group stood as
IPADE in last year's local elections. It did worse than expected, only
winning a single seat in Beira and one in Dondo, both Renamo strongholds,
taking 3% and 6% of the vote. The 1999 race was close, with Chissano
gaining only 52% of the vote, so Domingos' candidacy could be a boost for
the Frelimo candidate, Armando Guebuza.

LOOKING BACK
AT LOCAL
ELECTIONS

Local elections in 33 municipalities on 19 November 2003 gave Frelimo
victory in 28 cities and towns, Renamo victory in four (Beira, Nacala,
Ilha de Mocambique and Angoche), and in Marromeu a Renamo president
(mayor) and a municipal assembly controlled by Frelimo. The Bulletin
estimated turnout at 28%, ranging from a low of 15% in Nampula to highs of
47% in Moatize and 46% in Mocimboa da Praia (which was one of the closest
and probably the most intensely fought contest).
This was the second municipal election. Renamo boycotted the first
elections in 1998, which means this is the first time Renamo has ever had
real governing power and responsibility.
There were more than 900 independent domestic observers and 150 foreign
observers who had high praise for the election day. The largest foreign
observer group, the European Union, said "election day was an example of
good electoral management and professional performance by polling station
officers during the voting and counting." The Carter Center reported "a
generally well conducted election day".
But both criticised the tabulation process at CNE level, which was seen
as confused, non-transparent, and subject to errors. The EU said that the
CNE and STAE were inefficient, non-transparent, and sometimes
misinterpreted the election laws. The Carter Center cited delays, errors
and "a general lack of public transparency". Both were highly critical of
the electoral registers.
The results in terms of which parties won in each city were judged as
correct because they corresponded to parallel counts done by observers,
the parties, and Radio Mocambique. But the details could not be confirmed
or verified; indeed, it was possible to show that mistakes had been made.
Both Carter and the EU complained of administrative obstruction which
gave them less freedom of movement and less access than in earlier
elections.
The EU report is on:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/
human_rights/eu_election_ass_observ/mozambique/
while the Carter Center report is on
http://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1645.pdf

CONSTITUTIONAL COUNCIL
REVISED RESULTS &
REJECTED CNE CHANGES

The CNE and STAE found it impossible to get a correct set of results. The
first results of the 19 November election were posted on 4 December.
Although riddled with obvious errors, this was submitted to the
Constitutional Council. A revised set of results was published on 11
December, after which further corrections were made and a new set of
results submitted to the Constitutional Council on 18 December. (This
version was published in MPPB 29.) Even that had mistakes, and the
Constitutional Council made corrections to the final results.
In the case of Manhica, the CNE and STAE made a mistake in using the
d'Hondt method to distribute seats in the municipal assembly, giving 15 to
Frelimo and 2 to Renamo. The Constitutional Council redid the calculation
and gave 16 to Frelimo and 1 to Renamo. The CNE also made mistakes in the
lists of winning candidates taken from party lists.
But the biggest slap in the face to the CNE was a decision to reject an
attempt to correct the number of seats in the assemblies of eight
municipalities. The number of seats is based on the number of registered
voters. On 20 August, the CNE published numbers of seats in each of the 33
municipalities. But in its various versions of the results, it changed the
numbers of registered voters, and in a decision on 6 December, it changed
the number of seats of 8 cities. The Constitutional Council ruled that the
CNE could not change the number of seats after the election, and that the
list published on 20 August should stand, even if it was wrong.
The final, correct set of results was announced by the Constitutional
Council on 14 January and published in Boletim da República on 26 January.

MAPS OF PAST ELECTIONS

Excellent maps of 1994, 1999 and 2003 elections results are available on
the website of Cruzeiro do Sul (Southern Cross:
http://www.iid.org.mz/html/6__eleicoes_94_99.html

SLOW START FOR NEW COUNCILS

New presidents (mayors) elected last year have made a relatively slow
start in the first months of the new terms, mainly due to the lack of a
proper handover from the old administrations. Where presidents have been
re-elected, administration has continued much as.
The main exception is Nacala, which was widely seen as the best run
municipality in the 1998-2003 period. The new Renamo mayor, Manuel dos
Santos, has kept most of the vereadores from the previous administration,
which ensured a smooth handover, but resulted in a major political
backlash from both parties. Renamo members were outraged, saying that all
high officials should be replaced and the jobs given to Renamo members.
Manuel dos Santos came under intense pressure from his own party, but he
resisted, saying he wanted to keep vereadores who had shown they could do
a good job. Precisely those vereadores came under intense pressure from
Frelimo, who said they should quit and not help a Renamo president
succeed. But they, too, have largely decided to stay. Thus, despite
pressure from both parties, dos Santos and his vereadores have put the
good of the city over party demands.
Marromeu is also an exception. It is the only city with a Renamo
president and a Frelimo majority (of 1) in the assembly, but Frelimo and
Renamo have proved to be cooperative. This may reflect that fact that
Marromeu is a small and isolated town, and the president and senior
assembly members all work for the local sugar company.
But these have been the exceptions. Even where a new Frelimo president is
taking over from an old one, there has been no proper handover and no good
will. Outgoing Frelimo presidents are angry at having been replaced by
their own party, and offered no handovers, and indeed sometimes even
sabotaged the transition. In one city, the outgoing president stripped the
official president's house, and the incoming president has not yet been
able to move in. In some places, outgoing vereadores have not returned
their official cars.
Meanwhile, the new Frelimo presidents are sweeping away the old
vereadores and appointing mainly new ones, and starting from scratch.
Perhaps the most difficult transition has been in Beira. The most serious
problem is that the funding from a World Bank infrastructure programme
which had been paying for important major works has been suspended because
of alleged corruption by the previous, Frelimo, administration. Renamo is
angry, alleging that the only time World Bank money has been halted due to
Frelimo corruption is when Renamo is taking over.
Meanwhile, Renamo President Davis Simango is facing demands from the
Renamo dominated assembly for salary increases and other benefits. This
continues a sad history; in the previous five years, Beira saw intense
battles between the Frelimo president and the Frelimo assembly.
Finally, in both Beira and Marromeu, the Renamo president, as expected,
has replaced the old neighbourhood secretaries. These are traditionally
political appointments, and they served as both the lowest level of city
administration and as local Frelimo secretaries. In Beira the issue has
been compounded by a dispute as to whether the offices of the secretaries
belong to the city or to Frelimo. But Frelimo's claim to the buildings is
a tacit acceptance that neighbourhood secretaries are party, and not city,
workers.

FIRST BI-ELECTION

There is again one woman mayor, after the country's first bi-election. The
mayor (president) of Xai-Xai died soon after being elected in November.
The bi-election was held on 19 May, and Rita Muianga of Frelimo was
elected with 95% of the vote. Renamo holds only one seat on the city
assembly, in this staunchly Frelimo area. Turnout was 27%, average for the
local elections but down on the 38% in November.
In the 1998-2003 period there had been one woman mayor, in nearby
Manhica, but she was not reselected by Frelimo and no women were elected
as presidents in November.

MUNICIPAL STRUCTURE

The 33 municipalities have almost the same structure as central
government, with the same presidential system. Every five years, a
municipal president and municipal assembly are elected. The municipal
president then chooses local ministers, known as vereadores, who
administer the various departments of the municipality.

=================================================

MOZAMBIQUE
POLITICAL PROCESS
BULLETIN

Issue 30 - 27 August 2004
Part 2 of 2

Editor: Joseph Hanlon ([email protected])
Deputy editor: Adriano Nuvunga

Material may be freely reprinted.
Please cite the Bulletin.

Published by AWEPA, the
European Parliamentarians for Africa

Prins Hendrikkade 48, 1012 AC Amsterdam
Tel: +31 (20) 524 56 78 ; Fax: +31 (20) 622 01 30
e-mail: [email protected]

Rua Licenciado Coutinho 77 (CP 2648) Maputo
Tel: +258 (1) 41 86 03, 41 86 08, 41 86 26
Fax: +258 (1) 41 86 04
e-mail: [email protected]

Formerly Mozambique Peace Process Bulletin

=================================================