Uganda under Museveni: The end or the beginning of the end?

The people of Uganda go to the polls today (February 23). It is an election that is historical in more ways than one. It is the first multiparty elections since the National Resistance Army and Movement (NRA/M) captured power in 1986 and ushered in almost two decades of “No Party” government under President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. It is an election in which the voters are faced with much clearer choice of candidates. The voters are also spoilt for choice of candidates at various levels from the plainly mediocre to the comical to the serious, and many in between. It is probably the most controversial election campaign yet.

The election tourism industry has flourished and their allied clients in local and international NGOs, hotels, entertainment, taxis, car hires, food sellers and business centres must be wishing the campaigning had gone on longer. Even us columnists, especially my colleagues who mostly comment on Ugandan domestic issues, may find less passionate issues to rant on and on about.

Initial reports from different observers have been typical of what one has come to expect these days. It seems the statements are already written before they arrive, or the templates are in the laptops and all they need to do is just cut and paste - changing location, country and names of parties and candidates as and where necessary. A minority of the voter tourists have suggested that due to the lack of level balance between the government and the opposition the election may not be fully free and fair. The majority of reports so far, including that of the African Union (AU), released on Tuesday, 21 February, suggest that in spite of a few incidents including violence, they are confident that the campaigns have generally been 'ok' and look forward to a free and fair election.

The opposition and the ruling parties and their supporters react to these assessments differently depending on their political interests. But there is no denying the truth that the government did engage in underhand methods, some of them so crude and crass that they beggar disbelief. There was clear intimidation of the opposition and disruption of their campaigns. The main opposition candidate and former follower of Museveni, Kiiza Besigye, was facing trial for treason and in a new political low, trial for alleged rape, and was in and out of courts and detention centres, as well as campaigning across the country. Even some supporters of the ruling party have claimed intimidation, especially in opposition strong holds. But it is an unequal balance of terror because the ruling party and government always has greater power and leverage for intimidation than the opposition.

Debates and controversies will definitely continue after the elections but today the people of Uganda have the chance to award marks to all the candidates and parties and decide who governs Uganda for the next five years.

It is a right that has been won with blood and struggles. It is not a gift from any leader or party. It is not just those who went to the bush to fight dictatorship who made democratisation possible. The millions who stayed in the country, kept working in spite of all odds, kept hope alive and supported the struggles in non armed ways have also made their contributions - and many of them also paid with their lives. There was a tendency on the part of Museveni and his zealots to equate opposition to him as treason.

But democracy like rainfall knows no good or bad farmer - it will pour on all. This means that even those who were on the wrong side of the democratic struggles have the right to democratic freedoms and protection within the law. As people vote today, the controversies and passions not withstanding, they will still be inhabiting the same country with their political opponents, this time tomorrow and the day after regardless of the outcome of the vote.

It is important for every qualified citizen to exercise their democratic right to decide who governs them, although it is also democratic to refuse to vote if you feel that none of the candidates or parties represents your interest.

Of course the election, though the most decisive event is not the only proof of democracy. The process leading to it is also important in determining the legitimacy of the outcome. And voting in itself is not enough. As Joseph Stalin (no pretender for any democratic values) once observed, while he was not able to influence how people voted he could influence how the vote was counted. In many countries, not just Africa, even the way people vote can be influenced. However, the decisive influence often tends to be the counting. People must defend their mandate by ensuring that all their votes are properly counted and that the results tally with how they voted. In the polling booths today, as millions cast their votes, they must ask themselves: would I be able to live with myself this time tomorrow if this candidate wins? Is this person the best for the peace and prosperity of all Ugandans?

Whatever the outcome, Uganda can never be the same again as the era of deepening multiparty democracy beckons. For Museveni and his acolytes it is either the end (if they lose) or the beginning of the end (when they win).

* Dr Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem is General-Secretary of the Pan African Movement, Kampala (Uganda) and Co-Director of Justice Africa

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