MOZAMBIQUE: Low turnout in local elections

MOZAMBIQUE: Low turnout in local elections

JOHANNESBURG, 20 November (IRIN) - Mozambique's generally peaceful and problem-free local elections have been marked by low voter turnout, observers say.

In many places less than 15 percent of registered voters bothered to cast their ballots on Wednesday, mirroring the turnout in Mozambique's last local elections in 1998, which were boycotted by the main opposition party RENAMO.

The Mozambique Political Process Bulletin (MPPB) said "initial reports indicate quite a low turnout in most places" with queues "at just a few polling stations". The MPPB, formerly known as the Mozambique Peace Process Bulletin, is published by the the European Parliamentarians for Southern Africa.

Electoral Institute of Southern Africa programme officer, Martinho Chachiua, told IRIN that while "we don't know what the figures are yet, I had expected more [voter turnout]" on the 19 November polling day. He cautioned, however, that "local elections usually have lower turnouts than general elections".

"We thought that there would be a good turnout - at this point it is unclear as to what the reasons for [lower than expected turnout] might be," he said.

Counting continues at polling stations and intermediate results are expected by Saturday. Officials have until 4 December to produce the final results.

[ENDS]

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MOZAMBIQUE
POLITICAL PROCESS
BULLETIN

Local Election e-mail special issue 6
Sunday 23 November 2003 1300

===============

HEADLINES:
Fraud & confusion in Beira
Protests in Angoche, Ilha
Renamo second in Maputo
10 small parties & lists in assemblies
No second rounds likely
Turnout low, but above early estimates
Some final results

===============

MOZAMBIQUE POLITICAL PROCESS BULLETIN

Editor: Joseph Hanlon
Assistant Editor: Adriano Nuvunga

Published since 1992 by AWEPA,
the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Rua Licenciado Coutinho 77 (CP 2648) Maputo
Tel: +258 (1) 41 86 03, 41 86 08, 41 86 26
Fax: +258 (1) 41 86 04

Special issues of the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin (MPPB) will be
published several times during the local election process by e-email and
in English only. Issue 29 of the MPPB, printed and in English and
Portuguese, will be published on 4 December 2003.
To add yourself or a colleague to the e-mail list, to be added to the
Maputo distribution list for hard copies, or to contact the editor, send a
message to [email protected].

===============

PROBABLE FRAUD
THROWS BEIRA
COUNT INTO CONFUSION

The count in Beira was halted for a second time when Renamo said it had
caught a technician of the Technical Secretariat for Electoral
Administration (STAE) falsifying results sheets (editais) in favour of
Frelimo. Frelimo denies the allegation, but AIM reported yesterday that "a
Frelimo representative on the Beira City Elections Commission recognised
the existence of falsified polling station notices."

According to Lucas Sabica, the Renamo-appointed deputy chair of the Beira
City Elections Commission, the fraud took place in the small hours of
Saturday morning. On at least 13 editais, the number of votes for the
Frelimo candidate for president (mayor) of Beira, Djalma Lourenco, were
inflated. Apparently where Lourenco had, for example, 42 votes, the
technician wrote in a 1 to give him 142 votes. It also appears that the
alteration was done on editais which were being faxed to the CNE in
Maputo, for tabulation there.

It is a foolish and pointless fraud to attempt, because the total of votes
would no longer add up to the total on the edital, and the ballot paper
will be rejected by the CNE computer system in Maputo.

The form of the probable fraud will be particularly embarrassing for
Frelimo and the election administration, because Renamo had earlier
blocked the counting because it was afraid of just such an action. On
Thursday a Renamo-appointed STAE technician refused to open the warehouse
where the editais were stored, in protest to what he saw as an improper
instruction to fax editais to Maputo rather than carrying them by hand.
According to Samuel Malate, chair of the Sofala Provincial Elections
Commission, it took the intervention of Jose de Castro, Renamo vice
president of the National Elections Commission (CNE), to instruct Renamo
in Beira to collaborate in opening the warehouse and allowing the count to
begin.

Counting finally started on Friday afternoon, only to be halted again
early Saturday morning. The city election commission (CEC) met during most
of the day, with Renamo arguing that STAE staff had proved themselves to
be corrupt and on the side of Frelimo, and that they should not be present
while the CEC did the count itself. By late afternoon, all parties
realised the need to find a way to do the count, and a consensus was
reached which solved the problem by reversing an earlier illegal decision.

The CEC had initially banned press and national and international
observers from the count, which almost surely violates the law and CNE
(National Election Commission) rules.

The final decision was to allow STAE to remain in the room, but to allow
in four observers, two national and two international (Carter and EU), to
keep an eye on the process. A new counting system was developed by which
the results of each edital were read out loud, allowing the observers to
check copies of editais which several of them had made. Data read out and
observer copies agreed. The totals will eventually be summed up by hand,
using calculators. Results are possible today, Sunday.

ILHA PROTESTED
& RECOUNTED;
ANGOCHE PROTEST

Independent candidates in Ilha de Moçambique and Angoche submitted formal
protests to the National Election Commission (CNE) on Friday, asking that
the vote be annulled and carried out again. Ballot papers in both cities
had a blank space instead of a symbol for the presidential candidates and
lists of the two citizen's groups, Unidos pela Ilha (UPI) and Grupo
Independente de Desenvolvimento de Angoche (GIDA). Many voters are
illiterate, so symbols are important. The first question for the CNE will
be if the two groups submitted their symbols on time. UPI has also
protested over other issues.

Although Renamo has said it will protest over Mocuba, no formal protest
has yet been submitted to the CNE.

Meanwhile, the issue on the Ilha remains confused. Frelimo has complained
of ballot box stuffing -- that there were more ballots in the boxes than
voters. The daily Noticias reported on Saturday that a recount of all
individual polling stations was under way, but this has not been
confirmed. There is no provision in the electoral law for recounts, but
there seems no reason why the local election commission cannot do one.

Noticias quoted the election commission chair, Jose Caetano, as saying
that they had " discovered some discrepancies" between the short summary
of results (editais) and the longer, more formal minutes (actas) of some
polling stations.

RENAMO PUSHS JPC
INTO THIRD PLACE
IN MAPUTO

With more than one-third of the presidential vote counted, Emeas Comiche,
the Frelimo candidate, has 77% of the vote. Artur Vilanculos of Renamo-UE
has 12% and Philippe Gagnaux of Juntos Pela Cidade (JPC) only 7%. In the
assembly elections, with 25% counted, the numbers are similar: Frelimo
77%, Renamo 13% and JPC 6%.

Turnout in Maputo was 21%, compared to 13% in 1998. Turnout in Matola was
20%, compared to 12% in 1998.

10 SMALL PARTIES &
CITIZENS' LISTS WIN
SEATS ON ASSEMBLIES

Five small parties have won at least one seat on a municipal assembly,
compared to only one in 1998. Five citizen's lists appear to have won
places, the same number as in 1998. But citizens lists did not build a
base, and only two of the five from 1998 (JPC in Maputo and Ocina in
Nacala) stood again this year. In general, small parties and independents
did badly.

IPADE, the new grouping of Raul Domings (technically a citizens list in
this election, but effectively a party) will have a few seats in the Beira
municipal assembly, one or two seats in Dondo, and possibly one in
Quelimane. The Independent Party of Mozambique (PIMO) wins its first
municipal seat in Nampula, and might win one seat each in Maputo and
Angoche. UNAMO will win its first seat in Milange. PALMO may win its first
seat in Quelimane, but five different small parties stood in Quelimane,
splitting the opposition vote.

The Workers Party (PT, Partido Trabalhista), which was the only small
party to win seats in municipal assemblies in 1998 (3 in Xai-Xai and 1 in
Maputo), was not able to capitalise on its position. It has probably
gained one seat in Manhiça, but lost its seats in Xai-Xai (where Frelimo
will have 30 seats and Renamo 1). It might gain one seat each in Inhambane
and Maputo. PIMO might also gain a seat in Maputo.

Local citizens lists have not done particularly well. In Angoche GIDA
(Grupo Independente de Desenvolvimento de Angoche) can only hope for one
seat. A local group in Gurue, Uniao para a Mudança, will have one seat on
the assembly. There are no detailed results for Nacala or Ilha de
Moçambique, where local citizen's lists are likely to gain a few seats.
JPC will have seats in Maputo.

Where we say a small party "may" or "might" win one seat, it depends on
the complexities of the d'Hondt seat allocation system, which in the
allocation of the last seats tend to favour giving the first seat to a
party over giving an additional seat to a party which is already present.
(For those of a technical bent, the d'Hondt system maximises the number of
voters represented by each person who is elected.)

STRAIGHT PARTY VICTORIES
MEAN NO SECOND ROUNDS

The poor showing of independent and small party candidates means that none
of the predicted post-election complexities are likely to occur. With the
possible exception of Ilha de Moçambique, where a recount is under way, no
winning presidential candidate failed to gain more than half the vote, so
no second rounds are required. Similarly, all municipal assemblies will
have a clear majority, of the same party as the president. So no
coalitions will be required, and no cohabitation between presidents of
municipalities and presidents of assemblies of different parties.

Renamo has gained seats on all municipal assemblies, possibly with the
exception of Chokwe.

Frelimo has won 28 cities and Renamo seems likely to win four (Beira,
Angoche, Ilha de Moçambique and Nacala). In Marromeu the result is too
close. Frelimo is ahead in the local result, but only by 7 votes for
president and slightly more for assembly. In each race there are more than
350 spoiled ballot papers (nulos) which must be reconsidered by the CNE,
and in past practice about 100 of them will be accepted for each race.
That is more than enough to shift the result.

TURNOUT LOW, BUT
ABOVE INITIAL
ESTIMATES

As results are being tabulated, it has become possible to do better
estimates of actual turnout, the percentage of registered voters who
actually voted. Thus proving to be very varied, but seems higher than
initially estimated by many observers. Turnout ranges from only 12% in
Maxixe and 15% in Nampula and Marromeu to 41% in Mocimboa da Praia and 44%
in Chibuto. Of the 24 munIcipalities for which we can make estimates,
turnout was 30% or over in nine.

Initial results processed by STAE in Maputo, as well as other sources,
suggest the following turnouts:
Maxixe 12%
Marromeu 15%
Nampula 15%
Mocuba 19%
Mocuba 19%
Matola 20%
Gurue 20%
Maputo 21%
Milange 22%
Vilankulo 23%
Inhambane 24%
Chimoio 24%
Quelimane 25%
Manhiça 26%
Lichinga 28%
Xai-Xai 30%
Angoche 31%
Dondo 32%
Tete 32%
Chokwe 33%
Catandica 35%
Moatize 38%
Mocimboa da Praia 41%
Chibuto 44%

In the 1998 local elections, turnout was 15% and was as low as 6% in
Quelimane and 10% in Beira and Maxixe. In five cities it was over 30%, not
counting Dondo, (where ballot box stuffing was detected by the Bulletin
and by students working with Carlos Serra).

SOME FINAL RESULTS

(Note: turnout excludes "nulos" and "brancos", spoiled ballot papers and
blank ballot papers, which are 3-5% of the total vote)

NAMPULA (final).

Castro Namuaca (Frelimo) 16,001
Luis Trinta Mecupia (Renamo-UE) 12,077 votes.

Nampula Municipal Assembly (final)

Frelimo 15,224
Renamo 11,385
Independent Party of Mozambique (PIMO) 567

PIMO will have at least one seat on the municipal assembly.
Turnout: 15%

LICHINGA (final)

Cristiano Taimo (Frelimo) 9,270 votes
Mario Naula (Renamo) 4,042 votes.

Municipal Assembly

Frelimo 8.275
Renamo's 4,052
Social Liberal Party (SOL) 136

Turnout: 28%

GURUE

Joao Bernardo (Frelimo) 2912
Luis Pedro Silva (Renamo) 945
Baptista Julio (UM - citizens list) 185

Municipal assembly

Frelimo 2909
Renamo 971
UM 264

UM (Uniao para a Mudança) has won at least one seat.
Turnout: 18%

MOCUBA

Rogerio Gaspar (Frelimo) 4380
Jose Manteigas Gabriel (Renamo) 1434

Muncipal Assembly

Frelimo 4311
Renamo 1473
Palmo 171

Turnout 19%

ANGOCHE

Alberto Omar (Renamo-UE) 7089
Jose Constantino (Frelimo) 5575
Isidro Assane (GIDA - citizen's list) 823

Municipal Assembly

Renamo 7140
Frelimo 5404
PIMO 406
GIDA 371

PIMO and GIDA (Grupo Independente de Desenvolvimento de Angoche) might
each win one seat on the municipal assembly.
Turnout 31%

METANGULA

Anafe Achimo (Frelimo) 1,334
Orlando Esquadro (Renamo) 164

===============

MOZAMBIQUE
POLITICAL PROCESS
BULLETIN

Local Election e-mail special issue 6
Sunday 23 November 2003 1300

Editor: Joseph Hanlon
Assistant Editor: Adriano Nuvunga

Published since 1992 by AWEPA,
the European Parliamentarians for Africa
Rua Licenciado Coutinho 77 (CP 2648) Maputo
Tel: +258 (1) 41 86 03, 41 86 08, 41 86 26
Fax: +258 (1) 41 86 04

Special issues of the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin (MPPB) will be
published several times during the local election process by e-email and
in English only. Issue 29 of the MPPB, printed and in English and
Portuguese, will be published on 4 December 2003.
To add yourself or a colleague to the e-mail list, to be added to the
Maputo distribution list for hard copies, or to contact the editor, send a
message to [email protected].