Nigeria: True power ‘lies in the shadows’

The Nigerian elections started off badly, very badly. On Saturday 2 April at approximately 1pm, Mohammed Jega, the INEC (Independent Nigerian Electoral Commission) chairman, announced the National Assembly elections would be cancelled due to administrative failures. The necessary paperwork and voting materials had failed to reach all the polling stations in the country. Jega said the elections would now be held on Monday 4 April – but within 24 hours the new election date was changed for a second time to Saturday 9 April. The federal and state government elections were also postponed to 16 and 23 April respectively. What is even more disgraceful is that only the day before, Jega had announced with much pomp and ceremony that INEC were ready for the elections. Surely he must have known INEC was NOT ready and would not be ready for at least another week. Worse still, the voting process had already begun and in some places people had actually cast their votes. The words ‘gross incompetence’ easily come to mind but the last minute announcement and Nigeria’s horrendous record of election fraud created the suspicion that there was something else at play here too.

Nigerian/American attorney, Franklin Otorofani on Focus Nigeria dismisses ‘incompetence’ as solely to blame, despite the fact that the civil servants in charge do not possess the ‘requisite skills’ or that ‘INEC has gone digital with its logistics still in the Stone Age!’. Otorofani is scathing in his criticism of Jega:

‘It would be recalled that when Jega got the job in June, 2010, he didn’t even allow himself to settle down at his desk to understand the problems of the agency before he went on the lecture circuits pontificating on free, fair and credible elections like the academic that he is, and at the same time doing his best to malign and utterly discredit his predecessor-in-office who had been disgraced out of office to clear the way for him to ascend the electoral throne.

‘And while he was at it the nation was salivating like a mesmerized victim of a con-man, totally oblivious of the dangers that lay ahead. While he was on the public lecture jamboree virtually no preparations were made for the elections and when he returned from his lecture circuits he suddenly remembered that the agency needed N90bn for the voter registration exercise. He threatened the nation with failed elections should he be denied what he asked for. Pronto, he was handed N87.7bn apparently as down payment because he wasted no time coming back to ask for the balance with additional request for N6.7bn made to the NASS’.

Five months later the registration process began and yes that was a mess too and should have been a warning sign that all was not well. Apart from the fact that registration had to be extended, (timing seems to be a real problem for INEC) there were complaints:

‘…ranging from inadequacy of materials, lack of competence on the parts of the handlers of the registration machines, allegations of manipulation of the exercise by politicians and in some cases, with the connivance of INEC officials, poor logistic judgment, failure of the machines to perform or perform at an abysmally low speed, among so many other allegations.’

Nonetheless registration went ahead, flaws included. Otorofrani further implies that Jega’s choice of contractors to supply election materials was not above board and that secret meetings with the Congress for Progressive Change were inappropriate.

There is no evidence, however, to believe there was anything sinister in the cancelling of April 2 polling day. Nigerian Curiosity also asked why wait until half way through election day to inform the country it was unprepared and concluded it was a matter of ‘sheer incompetence’ of the INEC officials. However the cancellation did raise questions about where power lies in Nigeria.

‘Secondly, the forced delay highlights that true power in Nigeria lies in the shadows. It is incredible that Jonathan, as president, would allow such an incident to happen on his watch. After all, he repeatedly made himself the guarantor of credible elections the minute he became acting president during the confusion caused by late president Yar'Adua's 2009 absence and eventual death in 2010. So, if the president of Nigeria is not competent or powerful enough to indeed guarantee credible polls, then how can he be strong enough to stand up to the challenges of the position he seeks? Worse still is that none of the so-called leaders that claim they can rule Nigeria, be they Buhari, Ribadu, Atiku, Babangida or anyone else is right for Nigeria at this time or ever. Anyone with enough sense to be of political value is not dipping their foot into the hornet's nest that is Nigerian politics.’

One of the main discussions around the 2011 elections has been the use of social media to encourage participation in the election process from registration to voting and to monitoring the elections. Organisations such as Enough Is Enough(EiE) and Reclaim Naija have been at the forefront of these campaigns. It is too early to tell how successful they have been both in the process and outcomes. However I am concerned that the Ushahidi map used by Reclaim Naija contained election (voting) numbers prior to the National Assembly elections on 9 April. Nor does there appear to be any separation between the three elections and only 0.22 per cent of logs have been verified to date. More clarity and accuracy are needed in order to fully appreciate and trust the data. EiE is using a Nigerian designed application called ReVoDa which allows mobile phone users to report incidents and for them to receive updates from the service. Altogether, along with Twitter and Facebook, this is the first time there has been a comprehensive social media approach to monitoring the elections and already one is beginning to get a sense of what is working and where things are going wrong or right. For example a number of Twitter users posted on the irregularities in the Niger Delta states: Delta and Bayelsa [the incumbent President’s home state]:

@reclaimnaija: ‘Delta, Bayelsa and Imo record highest cases of ballot snatching’
@eggheader: ‘GEJ says: I've delivered on my promise of free and fair elections" DAILY SUN: "Bayelsa tops states with cases of stolen ballot boxes"’
@rmajayi: ‘#NigeriaDecides #ReVoDa Reports: 43% of "violence" incidents were sent from polling units in Delta State. See reports at http://is.gd/YCeOLJ’
@ahniy101: ‘Who u 4 blame? RT @Sir_Daf: I guess Delta state is going to top the list of state with election violence. #nigeriadecides i blame it on PDP!’

There were also reports on election fraud:

@nigerianewsdesk: ‘FLASH: Soldiers in Adamawa arrest three in possession of 500 ballot papers. #NigeriaDecides’
@eggheader: ‘FLASH: Truckload of fake electoral materials intercepted in Igueben, Edo State earlier today. #nigeriadecides’

Despite the numbers of Nigerians in Nigeria using Twitter to report on the elections being extremely small it has enabled conversations and improved the overall reporting of Nigeria’s mainstream media. I am still unsure of the reach of mobile phones for reporting and monitoring but so far it seems an improvement on the 2007 elections and no doubt will be even more effective in future local and federal elections.

Akin’s Blog, which has been closely following INEC for the past few months, provides a short review of the election process so far:

‘INEC is supposed to be the final arbiter of the elections and their representative officials at different levels of government representation were supposed to announce the results at their respective posts and pass that on to the higher levels within the INEC hierarchy.

‘Patience can only be exercised for so long before it breeds resentment, suspicions and a sense of injustice brewing towards the corridors of power as the goodwill won by the INEC in the seemingly free, fair and transparent conduct of the elections is slowly being sapped away with the lack of alacrity to a critical stage of the process which is the authorised and validated announcement of results.

‘LOSING GROUND BUT NOT THE FOOTPRINT

‘The National Elections Coalition has however released a list of results [1] at the time of this writing that shows that out of the 94 contested Senate seats 86 results have been declared and out of the 312 contested House of Representatives seats 89 results have been declared.

‘This does not augur well for the expectations for the next set of elections for the Presidency, the State executives with their legislatures and the postponed National Assembly elections for 15 Senatorial Districts and 48 Federal Constituencies neither does it engender confidence if INEC does not do all in its power allay the fears of Nigerians of a results being cooked up in some backrooms that favour people who have not won the popular and expressed will of the electorate.’

Akin’s point is well taken as the results so far show the ruling PDP party has lost some ground.

’, a twice daily aggregate of Twitter #NigeriaDecides.

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* Sokari Ekine blogs at Black Looks.
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