As Nigerians go to the polls

Nigerians go to the polls this Saturday in a historic, highly contentious election. Tadjudeen contests the election may be determined more by local factors than powers of incumbency. It may also spur the opposition to unite behind a candidate against the ruling PDP at next weekend’s presidential election.

Nigerians go to the polls this Saturday in a historic, highly contentious election.

It is historic because it is the first time that an elected government will be handing over to another elected government through universal adult suffrage.

It has been highly contentious. It will leave people with negative forebodings because of the violence, generalised insecurity and uncertainties that elections continue to generate across this continent; as we try to deepen democracy beyond ‘voting without choosing’; and make a difference to the way in which we are governed politically, economically and socially.

As with any challenge faced by other African countries, the challenge facing Nigeria, by virtue of its size, is multiplied several times.

This weekend’s election is the first in a two week marathon to choose public officials for both state and federal governments of Nigeria. This Saturday, voters are choosing members for 36 state parliaments and 36 state governors. There are at least two dozen contestants for every available post. There are over 30 political parties contesting.

The resources at the disposal of many of the states are bigger than the national budgets of a majority of the member states of the African Union.

Therefore a lot at stake at these 'local' elections. It is not surprising that most of the electoral violence tends to occur at these elections, because the local elite is most visible at this level.

At this level, they can legitimately access a bigger share, second only to that of the federal government, of the nationally allocated oil revenues.

So if you do not control power at the centre, doing so at state levels is second choice. Local government is a very distant, and relatively poor third option.

At the federal level the contest is narrowed to two main parties: usually the ruling part and whatever coalition of ‘eaters’ and other foot lose opportunists on the one hand; and a coalition of opposition parties on the other.

At the state level things, are complicated by specific local conditions: personalities, historical memories and local rivalries.

The party in power at the centre always has the advantage of ‘changing political facts’ locally through all kinds of uses and abuses of the powers of incumbency.

Thus in 2003, the ruling PDP went on a rampage claiming victory in more than two thirds of the states across the country, mostly through blatant rigging, including massive votes in most of the oil-producing southern states where there were successful boycotts of the polls.

In Obasanjo’s home state, where he even lost his deposit in his own family ward in 1999, an election in which his own Yoruba people did not endorse his candidature, he was seen as sponsored by the Hausa–Fulani north.

The PDP reversed the course by giving Obasanjo more votes than there were registered voters! An election petition later nullified the result, but with no effect on the presidency.

However in at least one state, e.g. Imo, the rigged results were overturned, and the legitimate winning opposition party regained the governorship.

In two other states, Lagos and Kano - the two most populous, metropolitan states with very conscious civic populations, the leading opposition parties, AD and ANPP respectively, were sufficiently vigilant and organised in a balance of terror against the PDP, so as to ensure that there victories were not stolen.

At Saturday’s elections, the PDP may attempt to sweep everything again. But the party is no longer as formidable as it appears, in spite of its control of the state machinery.

First, its umbrella symbol is now so tattered that it no longer holds its various factions together. It is bitterly divided between Obasanjo loyalists, Atiku supporters and all kinds of anti-Baba PDP grandees. Those who did not defect with Atiku have gone to other parties.

Secondly, Atiku’s group had control over most of the party's financial machinery which was used to rig the PDP to power, notably in 2003. Therefore Obasanjo’s people do not have monopoly over the manipulations. Hence the mortal fear of having Atiku on the ballot, and risk having to content with his counter-rigging infrastructure.

Thirdly, Obasanjo does not know how to make friends, although he is field-marshal in manufacturing enemies by the seconds. He has caused more disenchantment in his ranks through the whimsical way he imposed governorship candidates in many states.

In one state Obasanjo imposed the fourth-placed candidate, while in other states, the names of winning candidates were substituted with Aso Rock favorites. Two of those went to court to have the decision quashed, and were successful.

But rather than reinstate them, Obasanjo’s party declared that they will not be contesting in the states. They expelled the victorious candidates in order to deny them the PDP platform. All these will militate against PDP at state level.

By no means are the other parties any more democratic than the PDP: most of them will rig where they can, and are able to.

What this all means is that this Saturday’s elections may be determined more by local factors than the powers of incumbency, whether at local or federal levels. The opposition parties may do better than feared. They may also spur the opposition to unite against the PDP at next weekend’s presidential election behind a candidate best placed to challenge the PDP candidate, Umar Musa Yar Adua, who remains the front runner.

* Tajudeen Abdul-Raheem is the Deputy Director for the UN Millennium Campaign in Africa, based in Nairobi, Kenya. He writes this article in his personal capacity as a concerned pan-Africanist.

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