Egypt’s fragile stability

Egypt’s political stability hangs in the balance following recent parliamentary elections that have been widely described as a shambles and a major reverse of any political reforms achieved over the past three decades. The country’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), under President Hosni Mubarak, won the elections by a landslide, taking more than four fifths of the 508-seat assembly and strengthening its hold on power ahead of the presidential poll slated for September 2011. The country’s two main opposition parties, the Muslim Brotherhood and the Wafd Party, boycotted the second round of voting, alleging widespread fraud, state interference, voting irregularities, intimidation of their supporters by the government and police, and violence.

While the poll results drained any remaining credibility from the electoral process, it was a gamble the government was prepared to take. The seemingly limited confrontational stance over the past two decades of the banned but tolerated Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest and most powerful opposition group, have helped it to establish an important foothold not only in the country’s social structure but also in the political landscape, particularly at administrative levels. Yet the Muslim Brotherhood, which had 20 per cent of the outgoing parliament, was left with a single MP in the new assembly, a result that could be seen as part of an orchestrated plan to curb the power and ambition of the regime’s greatest opposition.

The recently contested elections in Cote d’Ivoire and Haiti have taken the lion’s share of press coverage about politics in the developing world in recent weeks, while the predictable parliamentary vote in Egypt went largely unnoticed. Yet the election results in the Arab world’s most populous country are critically important, as they contrast the reality of the one-party political systems that continue to prevail in North Africa with the burgeoning of multiparty democracy in former autocratic regimes across sub-Saharan Africa.

Egypt’s current crisis of governance and the regime’s withering political legitimacy have further fuelled the ongoing debate about the future of the Mubarak presidency that is now being played out both behind the scenes at the NDP’s headquarter in Cairo and in the streets across the country. Recent statements by the ruling party’s head of media to the effect that Mubarak, age 82, will stand for re-election in next year’s presidential elections vie with contradictory reports indicating that Mubarak is grooming his son, Gamal, to succeed him. Such reports coincide with an unofficial campaign and recent petitions calling on Gamal, a senior NDP official, to stand for president, suggesting a succession struggle might be under way within the party itself. Some analysts contend that elements of the ruling elite have come to believe that Mubarak, who has served as president since 1981, can do no more and that his continued grip on power no longer serves their interests or those of the party. Yet Mubarak’s refusal to announce whether he will extend his nearly three decades in power or to designate a successor has fuelled concerns that a succession crisis eventually could lead to political violence and instability not seen since the 1952 revolution that abolished the monarchy and established a republic. Such an outcome could spell disaster for the government’s attempts to attract more foreign direct investment and increase tourism revenues, a lifeline of the Egyptian economy.

After three decades of economic liberalisation, the government continues to struggle to raise investment and savings ratios and has largely failed to reduce the country’s trade deficit. Although the economy expanded at an annual average of 7 per cent in the three fiscal years up to June 2008 – which is the minimum rate needed to reduce poverty levels that now stand at 20 per cent – growth slowed to 4.7 per cent in the year ending June 2009 due to the global economic crisis. Egypt's unofficial unemployment rate of more than 25 per cent and annual population growth of more than 2 per cent contribute to the problem, placing a heavy burden on the government to create employment opportunities for the 750,000 Egyptians who enter the job market annually.

Egypt’s stubbornly high rates of unemployment and poverty in urban slums and rural areas, exacerbated by the global financial and food crisis; the government’s desperate attempts to hold on to power at the cost of eroding its legitimacy and credibility; and the continued division and weakness that plague secular opposition parties all serve as a recipe for political instability and a breeding ground for Islamic fundamentalism among an increasingly disenchanted population. As Mohammed El Baradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and current head of the National Coalition for Change, puts it, ‘Egyptians are known to be patient people. But patience has limits and civil disobedience is our last resort if demands for reform are not heeded.’ With the latest election results and Mubarak's approval ratings among the general public at an all-time low, Egypt’s political stability and future depend on the NDP’s ability to put forth a presidential candidate who can garner the undivided support of the ruling elite and who is genuinely committed to political and economic reform, democratic accountability, and multiparty democracy.

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* Hany Besada is senior researcher, Development Cooperation, at The North-South Institute in Ottawa, Canada.
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