Silencing the tools of Revolution 2.0

Scribbles from the Den comments on the government of Cameroon’s decision to ban the Mobile Twitter service that was being offered by mobile operator MTN in partnership with Twitter:

‘Obviously, the government has failed to learn the lesson from North Africa, particularly in Tunisia, where the Ben Ali regime was still toppled even though it had banned all social media sites for years and had engaged in a sophisticated cyber-war with Tunisian digital activists. The government has also completely misread the lessons of the February 23 protests; even though Twitter played a prominent role in informing the world of what was happening in Cameroon, over 95% of the tweets which the international media relied on for updates did not originate from within Cameroon. It was information obtained via mobile phones, regular SMS and email which ended up on Twitter and not real-time tweets from activists on the ground…

‘In country where politics trumps everything else and where the survival of the Biya regime is becoming a self-destructive obsession, the socio-economic benefits of Twitter have been completely overlooked in favor of a largely symbolic policy which does not change the digital balance of power between the regime and the digital activists within and out of Cameroon...

‘Every Cameroonian with a cell phone (that is about 6 million individuals) knows what a text message is, and/or has texted at least once before. Increasingly smartphones are making their way into Cameroon, and practically every phone in the market has a camera. The combination of standard SMS and smartphones is where the potential "threat" to national security (i.e., the Biya regime) really lies, and not on a service that was used by only a handful of people...

‘So, unless the government plans a total Internet blackout, including the banning of all mobile phones and standard SMS, then it has embarked on a very futile battle which it will never win.’

Readwriteweb argues that the Twitter ban by the Biya regime stems from a widespread misconception about the role of social media in political uprisings:

‘Clearly, President Biya believes he can cut off future protests by eliminating one of the tools those protesters might use...

‘The ban brings keeps an interesting issue alive. As I discussed in my review of "The Net Delusion," it is easy for actors on both sides of a political struggle to over-emphasize the power of a given social media tool. On one side, there is a belief that Twitter or Facebook, for instance, will provide protesters with a tool against which no government can prevail. On the other side, governments can wind up believing the same thing, so they presume that if they simply eliminate that tool, any protests will fail.

‘The truth is, social media is very valuable to those who wish to be heard and who wish to communicate with each other. Like any element in a struggle it can provide the straw that breaks the camel's back. But finding the social media tool that “guarantees” a protest will be successful (or fail) is a lot like a business instructing its marketing department to “make a viral video.” You just don't know what tool will be the make-or-break.’

Andrew Trench theorises that the level of Internet penetration may be used to determine where revolutions might likely occur:

‘Is there a tipping point of internet penetration which provides a critical mass for social revolution in a country with a non-democratic or repressive government?

‘It's a thought that's been bugging me ever since I read about the Wikileaks Factor in the Tunisian revolution which ousted president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. For this to be a factor plenty of Tunisians would have had to access the Wikileaks documents which details the scandalous affairs of this crooked president.

‘Social networks have also been given plenty of credit for the revolution unfolding in Egypt.

So I went and had a look at the numbers over on www.internetworldstats.com to see what they could tell us about these two scenarios. Well, fascinatingly, both Egypt and Tunisia have seen a massive growth in internet users and internet penetration over the last 10 years. Both have now got internet penetration of over 20% and in Tunisia's case it was as high as 34%.

‘While it is clearly simplistic to over-state this factor and there must be many more drivers contributing to such a rapid political uprising, it is obviously a factor as evidenced by the Egyptian regime pulling the plug on the country's internet access to try and block the rising tide of revolt.

‘My back-of-napkin theory is this: that a rapid increase in internet penetration in a repressive regime does play an important role as it provides an unfettered channel of communication allowing disaffected citizens to share views - and more importantly - to rapidly organize and mobilize.

‘If Egypt and Tunisia are valid case studies, it looks like internet penetration of around 20% is the mark.’

The Gambia Voice believes that impact the fall of the Gaddafi regime, if it were to happen, would be as momentous as the collapse of the Soviet Union:

‘The sudden transition of the political landscape, especially in West Africa, in the 1990s owed much to the fall of the Soviet Union when countries that benefited from super-power patronage found themselves with limited external support. The results of that, without doubt, were the very destabilising wars and coups that took over in countries such as Sierra Leone and Liberia.

‘Since the 1970s, Libya had been the preferred ground for Sub-Saharan warlords who used it to train and arm fighters, who were then sent back to their respective countries to ignite national upheavals and skirmishes. Such recruitments were very effective in the Sierra Leone and Liberia wars...

‘Coups and elections are not successful without Ghaddafi’s intervention one way or the other. Prolonged and destructive civil wars are not possible without being sustained by the man who wants to unify Africa.

‘The significance of Ghaddafi in Sub-Sahara Africa should not be underestimated at all; he is the only North African leader who looks southward. He considers himself very much African, and he advocates for a united Africa. This claim and link enabled him to detach himself from the Middle East, and used his huge oil wealth to bankroll the AU (Africa Union)... Since the beginning of the Libyan upheaval the AU has remained silent, fearing that if any hasty statement is made to condemn the revered Colonel, it may come back to haunt them and their crumbling regimes…

‘It is now a matter of who first is going to put his head in the snood by publicly condemning the Colonel. African dictators are fully familiar with the proverb that one should never crack a nut on the head of he who carries you on his shoulders.’

ImageNations cautions that revolutions do not always usher in political systems that are in line with the expectations of the revolutionaries:

‘While the toppling of autocracies is a sign that the people are fed-up with their governments and would want to live in a freer society where resources are equitably distributed and rights fairly expressed, it would be better if we do not take these quests as constants in the outcomes but to question their attainment...

‘Many opposition political parties are headed by autocrats whose sights rest not on the suffering populace for whom they pretend to represent but on how to wrench power from the current rulers and make a dynasty out of it. Thus, though currently we may be happy these demonstrations and on-going topplings, let's not be over-enthusiastic for they are creating spaces for the autocrats-in-waiting, those who are envious of the way these people are amassing wealth. The likes of Dennis Sassou Nguesso of Congo (Brazzaville) who was president for 12 years, from 1979 to 1992. Defeated in 1992, he fought the president for five years until he ousted him in 1997 and has been president ever since...

‘Yet, there are always positives to every event. Some revolutions have led to deep constitutional changes that has benefitted the masses like the Ukraine's Orange Revolution. Yet, which group are likely to replace Qaddafi if he leaves? Is it a democratic one? A religious group? A dynastic family? or what? Currently, all is quiet in Tunisia, but have things returned to normalcy? We would have to explore these and debate amongst ourselves and be vigilant so that those whose blood were shed would not die in vain.’

Chronikler believes that thanks to the Egyptian revolution, it is now possible to determine the true political strength and size of the Muslim Brotherhood:

‘The Brotherhood was previously portrayed as a mighty political organisation by the regime itself as a way to attract the support of those who opposed them inside and outside Egypt, and to help maintain the status quo. I personally have often been asked, at the first sign of my criticising Mubarak, if I would prefer the Brotherhood, as if there were no third option.

‘The Egyptian revolution has reduced everyone including the Brotherhood to their actual size, since now everything is more transparent...

‘In post-Mubarak Egypt, as the country's political structure takes shape, the Brotherhood will emerge as one political party among many. And when all the politically inactive Egyptian liberals take to the ballots, once again the Brotherhood will further be reduced to its actual size...

‘While the world is closely watching Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has a great opportunity to abandon some of its former discriminatory ideas against women and religious minorities and reach a political maturity that could allow it to share power and be part of decision- and policy-making in a future democratic Egypt...The Islamic movement should stay true to this spirit of the revolution, which allowed it to become an officially recognised political party rather than a banned group chased by Mubarak's security apparatus.’

Swazimedia wonders whether the Inability of the Swazi government to pay nurses is a sign that it is running out of cash:

‘Swaziland’s nurses took to the streets of the capital Mbabane yesterday (8 March 2011), blocking traffic for two hours, because the government failed to pay them their allowances as promised... The nurses are demanding that government pays them overtime allowances dating back to 2007.

‘There are now serious doubts about the Swaziland Government’s ability to pay its bills. At the weekend teachers heard that money deducted from their salaries for pensions was not being forwarded by the government. There is a wide spread belief that the government is using the money to pay its day-to-day bills.

‘Majozi Sithole, the Finance Minister, has constantly said that even with the present meltdown of the economy, health and education services would not be affected.

‘Events are now showing that he can’t be trusted on this. Instead, slowly we are beginning to realise that the budget he announced last month was a fiction. Technically, the budget is an estimate of how much will be spent in the coming years. Just because the government estimates it will spend E824 million on primary education in the coming year, it doesn’t mean it will spend that money. Put simply, it can only spend the money if it has it – and all indications are that the government doesn’t have it.

‘So all we really have are empty promises from the government.’

Constitutionally Speaking believes that party discipline and democratic centralism is a threat to constitutional democracy in South Africa:

‘In South Africa at the national and provincial level we do not vote for individual people who happen to represent a specific political party. We vote for political party of our choice and that political party decides in any way it deems fit who should appear on the electoral lists and thus who will represent the party in the various legislatures. Members of the leadership of the majority party usually then also become members of the executive...

‘Because we vote for a party and not an individual, members of the legislature and executive must broadly adhere to the policies of the political party they belong to. Members of the legislature do not have a free mandate to vote according to their conscience (if any).

‘The heart of our democratic system is supposed to be the National Assembly, but if the ANC members of the National Assembly as well as the Cabinet Ministers are mere appendages of the extra-Parliamentary wing of the ANC then the National Assembly and the Executive become mere rubber stamps for decisions taken by a body that is not democratically elected. Instead of being governed by those representing the more than 10 million voters who voted for the ANC, we are then governed by those who were voted into office by 2400 delegates at Polokwane.

‘Provisions requiring Parliament to facilitate public involvement in the law making process and provisions requiring members of the executive to be accountable to the legislature then become meaningless as both the majority of members of the legislature and the cabinet are then only accountable to the ANC leadership which was not elected into office by the voters.’

BROUGHT TO YOU BY PAMBAZUKA NEWS

* Dibussi Tande blogs at Scribbles from the Den.
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