The Zimbabwean army is disillusioned with Robert Mugabe and will not support his attempts to cling to power if he loses the forthcoming presidential election, according to a former guerrilla commander who was close to Mr Mugabe during the war that brought him to power.

At least 18 people were injured in Zimbabwe on Sunday when pro government militants blocked the opposition from holding a rally, the party's secretary general said.

The Congress of South African Trade Unions notes Zimbabwe President Mugabe’s verbal undertakings to yesterday’s SADC summit meeting in Blantyre that he agrees to hold free and fair Presidential elections, to allow independent observers and journalists and to investigate reports of political violence.

COSATU is however sceptical about this pronouncement and disappointed that the SADC leaders appear to have accepted these promises at face value. Mugabe has given such assurances before and then completely ignored them. These latest promises will prove as worthless as those he made at the Commonwealth summit meeting on 6 September 2001 in Abuja, Nigeria, and after previous SADC meetings on 10-11 September and 10 December 2001.

Since then he has been pushing draconian anti-democratic laws through Parliament, which:

· Prevent public protests which “cause disorder or intolerance”;
· Ban “illegal” strikes;
· Restrict the rights of opposition activists;
· Outlaw publishing “false statements prejudicial to the state or that incite public disorder, violence, affect defence and economic interests of the country or undermine confidence in security forces”;
· Ban “spreading malicious rumours or publishing information likely to cause alarm and despondency”.
· Make it an offence to insult the President.

The election has been made subject to:

· Bans on voter education and election monitors;
· Rules on voter-registration which require votes to have proof of residence and a bank account, which will disenfranchise thousands of voters, especially the unemployed and the young;
· Severe restrictions on opposition election meetings; · An electoral commission staffed by hand-picked loyalists, which will not be independent. All these measures are designed to make it impossible for the opposition to campaign openly and guarantee President Mugabe’s own re-election.

They not only contradict all his earlier promises but are steps in the opposite direction. Yet Malawi and SADC President, Bakili Muluzi, when asked how Mugabe could be trusted, replied: "I raised that question myself with him. He said, 'It will be done', and I take his word for it." This is not the decisive action that millions of Zimbabweans were hoping for from the regional heads of government to force President Mugabe to restore democracy. COSATU wants to see more than promises. Workers will not be convinced he is serious about holding free and fair elections unless immediate steps are taken to set up an independent election commission, with independent observers, the withdrawal of all the draconian laws currently being pushed through Parliament and a halt to all attacks on political opponents and journalists by ZANU-PF supporters. The SADC leaders should have issued an ultimatum to Mugabe to comply with these conditions or face expulsion from the organisation. Their failure to take more decisive action to ensure that Mugabe genuinely changes his policy is a serious blow to the idea of an African Renaissance, the New Africa Initiative and an African Union, all of which aim to transform the continent on the basis of democracy, human rights and good governance.

If SADC cannot deliver free and fair elections in Zimbabwe, their credibility will be brought in to question, especially since they are silent about the lack of democracy in Swaziland. Unless the SADC leaders face up to their responsibility, there can be no prospect of democracy in Zimbabwe.

The government of Zimbabwe has recently introduced two pieces of legislation, the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Bill, currently before Parliament and the Public Order and Security Act, passed yesterday, which severely restrict freedom of expression and of the media in the run-up to presidential elections planned for March this year.

As the name of the Information Bill implies, it does formally establish a right to access information held by public bodies. However, this right is so limited by exclusions and exceptions that its practical impact is likely to be extremely limited. In any case, most provisions in the bill have nothing to do with access to information but rather impose harsh restrictions on media freedom, giving analysts the sense that the information provisions have been included simply to draw attention away from the real import of the Bill.

Key problems with the two laws are as follows:
- excessive restrictions are imposed on the content of what the media may publish or broadcast;
- all media outlets and any business disseminating media products or even video or audio recordings must obtain a registration certificate from a government controlled body;
- all individual journalists must also obtain accreditation from the same body; and
- all foreign ownership of the media is prohibited and non-citizens are prohibited from working as journalists; and
- the authorities are given excessive powers to prevent demonstrations.

ARTICLE 19 calls on the Zimbabwean Parliament to reject these laws and calls on the government to stop seeking to control the media and to prevent independent media reporting. We also call on the international community to take effective measures to oppose these developments, including by isolating the government.

The British and US governments have begun a joint effort to identify millions of dollars thought to have been salted away in foreign bank accounts by Robert Mugabe and members of his inner circle.

THE European Union has given Zimbabwe seven days to make a written undertaking that it will allow international observers and news media personnel for the country's presidential election scheduled for 9 and 10 March.

The Congress of South African Trade Unions notes Zimbabwe President Mugabe’s verbal undertakings to yesterday’s SADC summit meeting in Blantyre that he agrees to hold free and fair Presidential elections, to allow independent observers and journalists and to investigate reports of political violence. COSATU is however sceptical about this pronouncement and disappointed that the SADC leaders appear to have accepted these promises at face value.

SADC chairperson and president of Malawi, Bakili Muluzi, called for free and fair elections in Zimbabwe at the opening of the Southern African leaders summit in the Malawian capital Blantyre.

Four human rights activists, all members of the umbrella Zimbabwe Crisis Group (ZCG), returned safely to Harare on Monday after being detained overnight in Malawi and deported.

Zimbabwean journalists plan to defy proposed legislation that will severely curtail independent reporting in the run-up to presidential elections in March.

Zimbabwe's Minister of State for Information and Publicity
Jonathan Moyo has banned a CNN news bulletin from being aired by the national broadcaster, the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC). The twenty-minute programme was aired daily.

The International Federation of Journalists today called for the European Union to lead international community action to "condemn, isolate and put into political quarantine" the Government of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe over new restrictions on press freedom.

Youths from the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union - Patriotic Front (ZANU PF) party have destroyed hundreds of copies of the independent "The Daily News" in the town of Masvingo during a demonstration against alleged misinformation by the paper.

Every year on December 1st we reflect on HIV/AIDS. This year Zimbabweans joined the rest of the world to commemorating World AIDS Day. The theme for this year’s campaign is “I Care, Do You?”, with a focus on young men and HIV/AIDS. Zimbabweans marked World AIDS Day with concerts, marches and fundraisers. Activities of the day were preceded by a national launch held at Murambinda growth point in Buhera District in Manicaland Province.

As the March presidential election draws nearer, and state violence, intimidation and rigging intensify, action by South Africa and its SADC partners becomes more urgent. Zimbabwe’s neighbours have a major opportunity to respond more forcefully to the growing crisis at a Summit in Malawi on 13-14 January 2002 and its aftermath. This briefing paper updates the regional dimensions of the crisis, and analyses SADC’s policy options, with a special emphasis on its most powerful member, South Africa.

Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Zimbabwean opposition, has pleaded for sanctions to be imposed on his country before the presidential election in March.

Militias of Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF party have stepped up their campaign of violence against opponents ahead of Presidential elections due in eight weeks, the opposition Movement for Democratic Change reported on Sunday. An "orgy of violence" erupted in the central city of Kwekwe on Friday and continued on Saturday where a mob of militiamen burnt down the MDC's provincial offices, and also one of the pro-democracy party's pickup trucks.

Southern Africa is rushing pell-mell into the cauldron of Zimbabwe’s Presidential election.

If the election is held and Mugabe wins, but it is declared to be unfair and not acceptable by Zimbabweans and the world, there will be chaos in Zimbabwe. The chances of this happening are high; Mugabe can only win by cheating and violence. South Africa may have to intervene militarily.

Not only ZANU, but also the Army, the Police and the Administration are deeply riven. Ultimately Mugabe has built a worthless edifice by doing little more than playing populist politics. He has abused land and race and conjured up a host of “enemies” from the global economy to Britain to, fashionably but cynically, branding the opposition “terrorists”. The ace in his pack of cards is his and his cronies’ rape of the DRC, the land, violence against internal and external enemies, and officially controlled resources – their joint culpability.

It is long since time to call Mugabe’s bluff, to openly avoid him and his cronies and to stand squarely behind the citizens of Zimbabwe.

The region and the international community must now prepare to help the MDC establish political, social and economic stability either after the March election if there is a normal transfer of power or after a period of chaos and bloodletting.

South Africa remains the key player. There are still creative measures that can be taken to both help ensure an acceptable election and to prepare for the likely aftermath. During the SADC monitoring visit two weeks ago, Labour Minister Membathisi Mdladlana reported that the delegation was "amazed" by the cooperation of the Zimbabwean ministers. He added, “Normally, there is a flat-footed denial. They are now accepting that the situation is beyond their control and that they need help," He said many issues were "raised sharply" with the Zimbabweans, including reports of state-sponsored violence and land invasions.

The view reported by Mdladlana no doubt led to the current ANC fraternal visit to ZANU. The outcome has to show the ANC putting aside ZANU as paralytic and destroyed by corruption. The ANC must be seen to treasure the worth of Zimbabwe as a people and an economy, just as the Constitution would demand.

The ZANU and the MDC Congresses have just been held. They revealed two worlds far apart. Zanu’s was a mad, ranting, demagogic and frightening example of lunatic showmanship. The MDC’s was a serious, participatory, comradely, democratic meeting espousing human rights, dignity and a courageous resolve to bravely soldier on so that, maybe, the voters could vote. The MDC is relying on Mugabe not being able to stop its messages being spread by word of mouth and by a new external and independent short wave radio station. The aim is to encourage Zimbabweans to vote in droves if they can.

Days before the Zanu Congress, the Zimbabwe Army, Police, Intelligence Organisation, and Air Force brass urged Mugabe to quit and to anoint a successor to enhance Zanu PF’s chances in the election. Most of these officers are heavily implicated in corruption, political violence, the rape of the natural resources of the Congo, and many have received farms and other favours.

They no longer see Mugabe as able to protect them. They know that there is rampant factionalism tearing ZANU apart. Mugabe had now lost the former Zanu strongholds of Masvingo, the Midlands and Manicaland together with his complete lack of support in all the cities. He can only bank on the Mashonaland vote.

If Zimbabweans can vote, Mugabe will lose. That loss will herald the political oblivion of the corrupt, venial and grasping political elite that has all but destroyed a wonderful people and country. This explains that elite’s desperation to avoid jail by clinging to power at whatever national and individual cost. Hence the general’s “advice” to Mugabe to go!

Many senior ZANU officials share the sentiment of one quoted in the free press in Harare, "Campaigning for Mugabe is a futile exercise. People are tired of him and it is clear to all of us that the writing is on the wall. It will be a miracle if we win.”

A senior party member summed up the mood of the ZANU Congress thus, "It's only an ill-advised fly that follows a corpse to the grave." ZANU as a coherent political party could fall apart quite suddenly. Zimbabweans will recognise that moment and act accordingly.

When the MDC President, Morgan Tsvangirai, reminded Mugabe that the people might be driven by the collapsing social order and economy to throw him out, Mugabe had him charged with treason. Now Mugabe, above the law, is openly inciting violence. Worse, acting as a dictator or fascist, Mugabe is saying that his followers must go out and use brute force because victory can only be achieved by violence.

To underwrite his on-going war against citizens, Mugabe has added three further threats.

1. The army is being largely recalled from the DRC, up to 10,000 troops, till after the election with all leave cancelled. He has already deployed troops in the townships and the regional strongholds of the MDC, ostensibly to “protect his supporters from terrorism". Defence officials are reported as saying openly that, "The president has indicated he needs the entire army for the forthcoming election.”

2. Zanu has long resolved to bar the opposition from campaigning in the rural constituencies. Apart from the army, the “War Veterans”, as they did at the last general election and since in a long orgy of terror aimed at villagers, white farmers and farm labour, will ensure this by intimidation. Again, they will operate beyond the law, be protected by the Police and be guided by the Central Intelligence Organisation.

Zanu regards its followers as its property, as cattle, not people; “The MDC must leave our rural supporters alone," stated the Vets Secretary-General, Mhlanga.

3. Having violated the adults and letting the Vets loose on citizens, Mugabe is turning to the youth and children as his newest foot soldiers. The youth brigades trained under the national service programme are not doing community work. They have been deployed in different areas where they beat up civilians.

The infamous Fifth Brigade massacred some 20,000 civilians in Matabeleland during the 1980s. Now, on a countrywide footing, with all the troops, the police, the Vets and his new foot soldiers, the youth and children, all Mugabe’s commissioned thugs, the numbers massacred could multiply to many times 20,000.

To hide Mugabe’s methods, his desperation, new savage press, security, defamation and electoral rules are being promulgated. Hundreds of thousands of voters will be prevented from voting because they come from places that oppose Mugabe’s terror. Only civil servants will monitor the vote. The outside world will be banished.

A bloody electoral battle is looming. Violence and intimidation already hold sway across vast swathes of the political landscape.
The ANC and the South African Government have to make a stand. The ANC must stop being the “ill-advised” fly that fraternally follows Mugabe’s corpse to the grave. The South African Government and the international community must do the following: -

§ Effectively deal with the food crisis. After eight months of clear food emergency, the UN has failed to reach agreement with Mugabe that imported food must not go through government (ZANU) channels where it will be used for political gain. Some US$54 million of imported foodstuffs (high protein biscuits etc) is now on its way to feed a present target group of 750,000 women and children. It will be distributed through Church and NGO agencies. This will not relieve the general food crisis beyond a month or so. The larger food problem remains.

§ Because of its strategic location and capacities, South Africa must set itself up as Trustee for Zimbabweans. It must oversee the immediate import and strategic storage of around US$250 million of maize, wheat and other basic foodstuffs so that there can be quick import into and distribution within Zimbabwe.

§ South Africa must set a number of actions that Mugabe must take and adhere to on a very tight timetable. At each failure, South Africa must turn off the lights, fuel or transport for a given period against another brief chance to make good. Gandhi would approve the method.

§ South Africa and Botswana, old Lesotho pals, must undertake serious war games on Zimbabwe’s borders aimed at forcing division within the Zimbabwe army and capable of being the launching pad for intervention.

§ South Africa, with international help, must set up “homes from homes” across the borders to care for Zimbabwean refugees. The refugees must be supported to re-enter to register and to vote or to stay and do both by agreement forced upon Mugabe.

§ These “camps” must be staffed by Zimbabwean and South African trainers to prepare refugees, most well educated, for the likely post-election economic and social work South Africa and other countries must support to help Zimbabwe to quickly sort out security and to establish civil and economic stability. This could be called, “the Zimbabwean Robben Island”!

§ South Africa and the international community must support a mixed Zimbabwe and international group to take further the general economic and social programme support the country will need. This must be done to advance implementation after a transfer of power, whether democratically or militarily. The UNDP simply cannot do this type of work. ZANU cannot think usefully about a normal future and the MDC has to fight an election under dangerous and trying conditions. Time must not be wasted.

§ The international community must announce and plan for US$300 million to be issued as ‘Work” and as “Training Rights” during 2002 to be issued to all adults every six months to inject family economic security, mobilize communities for joint investment and to secure individual opportunities to resurrect careers.

§ South Africa and other nations must offer Zimbabweans assistance and begin to put into place the Commission of Inquiry needed to nail those responsible for corruption, violence and human rights abuses. This time Truth and Reconciliation must be driven by the abused, not the guilty.

§ A fund must be established to support an independent national Land Commission to listen to all Zimbabweans talk about how they wish to see the land issue treated. The international community can help select Zimbabwean and international Commissioners to give it secure independent status. The MDC, with great maturity, has proposed such an independent body to both listen to citizens and to report, with recommendations, and to then oversee land reforms apart from Government.

President Robert Mugabe's government is seeking to push through two controversial bills on Wednesday in a special session of parliament, ahead of the presidential election scheduled for March. A third bill, the Electoral Amendment Act, was defeated on Tuesday.

Zimbabwe's military chiefs have declared they will only back leaders who fought in the country's wars of liberation, dealing a fresh blow to the opposition presidential candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai.