International aid workers have temporarily suspended their work at a village in eastern Chad following attacks on their compounds and ethnic violence, British aid agency Oxfam said on Friday.

Governments and advocacy groups rallied to lobby leaders of of the G8 for billions of dollars to help prevent maternal deaths, the leading killer of women of childbearing age in developing nations. The G-8 economic summit of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States convened for three days beginning July 7 in Hokkaido Toyako, Japan.

This South Centre Analytical Note looks at the donor-driven agenda in the reform of public procurement – the rules that guide government purchasing of goods, works and services – as one of major components in the good governance agenda being incorporated by donors into their aid programmes. It further stresses that such an agenda vis-à-vis government procurement not only restricts the flexibility of developing country governments to use public procurement as a policy tool for development, but also has significant consequences for local firms that rely on government contracts.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has made notable progress in bringing justice for the worst crimes despite mistakes in policy and practice, Human Rights Watch said in a report released today that assesses the court’s first five years. Human Rights Watch urged greater international support of the ICC to meet the political and financial challenges ahead.

The IMF said on Tuesday it needed to evaluate the impact on Democratic Republic of Congo's economy of a huge recent Chinese loan and investment deal before it could conclude a formal accord with the African state. The International Monetary Fund's country representative for Congo, Xavier Maret, said the $9 billion mining and infrastructure partnership with China signed by Kinshasa this year had raised questions about Congo's level of indebtedness.

Black business and professional organisations have expressed their dissatisfaction with the Pretoria High Court judgement characterising Chinese South Africans as ‘coloured’, thus qualifying them as beneficiaries in terms of black economic-empowerment, and called on the State “to appeal this irrational decision”.

The Management Board of Giesecke & Devrient GmbH, Munich, today decided to cease delivering banknote paper to the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe with immediate effect. The company has taken this step in response to an official request from the German government and calls for international sanctions by the European Union and United Nations.

The chocolate industry has failed to provide consumers with a reasonable assurance that the chocolate they buy was made without exploited and trafficked child labor. Major chocolate companies signed what is referred to as the Harkin-Engel Protocol in 2001, promising to eliminate the worst forms of child labor from their supply chains, after media stories emerged depicting the widespread use of forced child labor and trafficking on West African cocoa farms. After failing to meet their July 1, 2005 commitments, the Protocol was weakened and extended to July 1, 2008. Once again, the industry has missed the deadline.

Leaders of the Group of Eight rich nations are set to backtrack on their landmark pledge at the Gleneagles summit in 2005 to increase development aid to Africa to $25bn a year. A draft communiqué obtained by the Financial Times, due to be issued at the group's July summit in Hokkaido, Japan, shows leaders will commit to fulfilling "our commitments on [development aid] made at Gleneagles" - but fails to cite the target of $25bn annually by 2010.

Energy-hungry China and the United States, the world’s two greatest oil consumers, are jockeying for influence over Africa’s vast economic potential. But as the two rivals sink their business hooks into the continent, soldiers from the two nations have also rubbed elbows there.

Earlier this month in Washington D.C., Thomas J. Christensen (Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs) and James Swan (Deputy Assistant Secretary for African Affairs) briefed the Subcommittee on African Affairs of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on China’s growing presence in Africa and its impact on U.S. policy.

A Chinese private equity fund set up a year ago for ventures in Africa plans to spend about $300 million on projects in 2008, its vice-president said on Friday. The China-Africa Development Fund (CADFund) was launched in June 2007 with an initial $1 billion provided by the China Development Bank and plans to eventually grow to $5 billion, the fund's vice-president Hu Zhirong said.

How can citizens monitor government expenditure? What are the best strategies for effecting budgetary change? This guide, by the International Budget Project, looks the work of organisations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. It argues that civil society organisations have many opportunities to monitor budget implementation. Strategies include creating new monitoring methodologies and collaborating with the legislative branch on oversight.

Some low-profile investors are making ungodly amounts of money buying third-world debt on the cheap, then suing for the balance. Can they be stopped? More important, should they be?

In a Memorandum sent to the Internal Affairs and Environment Committee of the Israeli Knesset (parliament) Amnesty International urged legislators to reject a proposed law that imposes lengthy prison sentences on asylum-seekers and irregular migrants, disregarding their reasons for entering the country, and allowing for their immediate deportation, without regard for their possible ill-treatment or persecution to which they may be subject upon their return. The Committee is meeting on 24 June to discuss the draft “Prevention of Infiltration Law – 2008”.

The Vice-President of ECOWAS Commission, Mr. Jean de Dieu Somda, has said that the regional body is strategising and working towards attracting a fair share of Chinese aid and investment funds to Africa, according to report carried in This Day.

I welcome the writers’ analysis and assessment in the article, . It provides information, which I believe, is critical in placing the crisis in Zimbabwe in perspective.

It falls short, however, by not offering a viable alternative to anti-imperialists forces which might be masquerading as something else, as he seems to imply about the Mugabe regime. However, the present opposition as far as I can tell does not in any way represent a strong and independent alternative which will uplift the impoverished underclass and protect human rights.

On the contrary, it is clear to me that it is the tool of western imperialism and will carry out its mandates as opposed to the mandates of the people. I believe our job is to educate the people on how to best protect their interest. We must reexamine our definition of democracy very closely making sure it conforms to the needs of the people for universal health care, redistribution of the land, and an economic safety net.

The lack of this kind of examination of political forces in Zimbabwe is tantamount to replacing one despotic regime with another with neither having any true anti-imperialist credentials. Despite the chaos in Zimbabwe and the debate about who or what is mostly responsible, we have an obligation in remaining vigilant in protecting the interest of the most under privileged Zimbabweans. We must help develop and support a government in which progressive, anti-imperialists can place their faith in its authenticity.

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/383/48974oilrig.jpgWe could be on the threshold of a new phase of globalisation, one where there will be a new protectionism, more regional trade and regional economic activism and where governments will be forced to address the problems of the vulnerable middle class and poor, argues John Samuel.
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Oil is back in the centre of economic and political discourse, at the international, national and local level. What does this mean for the future of the economy and geo-politics?

The roots of this phase of economic globalisation lie in the economics and politics of the 1970s. The protagonist was oil. There was a food crisis too. This perpetuated the new cycle of debt and highly indebted poor countries. The economic turmoil of the 1970s (due to the oil shock, saturation of the role of the State and consequent inefficient and ineffective public expenditure, food crisis, and consequent new indebtedness of poor and developing countries) paved the way for the new mix of neo-conservatism, neo-liberalism and the third way. The indebtedness and balance of payment crisis in many countries gave unprecedented power to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank -- and the consequent economic and policy conditionalities they imposed. That is how the story of the new phase of economic globalisation, a mix of neo-conservatism and neo-liberalism – the Reagan-Thatcher prescription -- commenced, sometime in the early-'80s.

While there are similarities between the oil shock, food crisis and economic conditions of the '70s and the one we are beginning to face now, the political and economic context are not the same. The first 25 years after the Second World War saw unprecedented and sustained economic growth in Europe and America. In fact, the demand created by reconstruction activities after the war, the aid system in the '50s, and the capabilities in Europe without the burden of maintaining the colonies, helped to a significant extent to propel this economic growth. In other words, there was a significant demand within western countries and internal market competence to deliver the supplies.

By the '70s, the market got saturated in terms of demand, and the State got saturated in terms of the sustainability of public sector spending and effective social welfare. As a result, there was a real compulsion to find new markets elsewhere and to restructure the tax and public expenditure pattern. The rise of Japan and the competitive edge of Japanese products in Asia, the oil rich Gulf countries and the United States also created a sense of urgency to create new markets. To a certain extent the European Union was a sort of political solution to enable market integration to address the issue of market saturation.

The oil shock, and the consequent debt trap and balance of payment crisis, was a great opportunity for OECD countries to develop a combined strategy of trade, aid and debt and the conditionality approach to open up the markets of developing countries and less developed countries in Latin America, Asia and Africa. The economic and political implosion of the USSR in the late-'80s also created a crisis of the centralised policy planning mode and a non-dollar-based trade framework (there was almost a barter system between the USSR and many other countries). In fact, more than the ideological threat of communism, the West was worried about trade (in oil, arms and other commodities); such a system was a global road block for the western capitalist mode of trade. After the fall of the USSR, it was a free ride for finance capitalism and the neo-liberal mode of policy and trade framework.

The present situation is very different. The growth of the last 15 years is propelled by the growth of Asian economies, of Latin America, and parts of Africa. For the first time, the population of China and India tend to become an economic asset, instead of a liability, in terms of productive capability and domestic market expansion. Such a growth is partly due to new infrastructure development in different parts of Asia (in fact, much bigger in scale than the one in Europe in the '60s), and also due to the competitive edge in terms of cheap labour and skills. The finance capital market too played a key role in propelling new investments in the stock market that, in turn, propelled the economy. Asian countries are beginning to play a competitive game and are also using the finance capital market to acquire market share, productive capacities and big multinational corporations. Many of the takeovers (by Tata, Mittal and others) are of immense symbolic importance.

Due to the flight of jobs and due to the crisis of social development, there is a fast emerging, vulnerable, middle class and poor across Europe and the US. There is the added shade of identity politics (dramatically different from the old communist “threat”). The migrant communities which provided the crucial labour inputs during Europe's growth period have become a political liability now. This means there is more political and economic insecurity among a large number of the working class, vulnerable middle class, and the poor. All European countries are facing a new internal crisis of politics and economics (particularly in the context of the alienation of Muslim communities born and brought up in Europe).

This means there is a shift in the political sociology at the grassroots level in the USA, the EU and other parts of Western Europe. Many European countries such as Italy, Spain and France are facing a serious economic crisis. This also means that there can be a shift in the macro-political economy and geo-politics. Hence, the context is dramatically different from that of the economic crisis of the '70s. Today, there is no crisis of balance of payment (so far) and there is lots of foreign exchange reserves. There are vibrant domestic markets in India and China. In fact, the growth is sustained by the economic growth in Asia.

It seems the ongoing economic troubles, oil price hike, and food crisis, will be the springboard for another key political and economic shift in the world. The price of oil climbed from $10 a barrel in 1999 to $135 in the second week of June 2008. Goldman Sachs says it will hit $200 within the next 24 months! This means that the price of oil has risen by 900% in the last one decade. Oil spending as a share of global economy may cross 7% (more than the peak in 1979). Oil drives the engine of the present global economy. The US consumes 25% of the world output. Though demand in China and India increased, China consumes 9% and India consumes only 3% of the total oil demand.

As the price of oil climbs, commodity prices will go up. This also means that food prices will be relatively higher in the international market. The oil price increase is bringing about new political tension and turmoil. But if the price goes up, at least in some segments there will be a decrease in demand. The SUV market in the US and elsewhere was already in a slump and will face a crisis. This will also have consequences in countries like China and India which sustain the global economic growth (and demand for commodities) to a large extent. It will be difficult to sustain subsidy levels for oil in India and governments will be forced to increase the price (there is no other way). A mix of inflation, increasing oil price and deceleration of the economy (for example in real estate) can create new political tensions and equations in many countries, including India.

The increasing price of oil will make the oil-producing countries very cash rich. So the prominence of Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries will significantly increase. This may also induce a new arms race -- led by Russia. On the one hand it will give rise to a multi-polar world, and on the other hand it can propel a war. It is also interesting to note that most of the oil-producing countries are run by autocratic or authoritarian regimes, many of them in the Arab world.

The role of National Sovereign Funds of Gulf countries will increase dramatically. It is estimated that if the price of oil price climbs, six Gulf countries will have a value of $95 trillion dollars (the American economy is around $13 trillion) -- about twice the size of the public equity market. Already Sovereign Wealth Funds of the Gulf countries are buying up the major and controlling stakes of big western banks and this will create new protectionism. A possible inflation (if it crosses 15%) in Asia can cause serious economic trouble. There will be a devaluation of currencies in these countries -- with potential trouble for the finance capital market. There is a real trend of inflation in most countries in Asia (Vietnam is the highest, Thailand is almost 10%, and India, China and others too face it) and the oil price hike will further accentuate the problem. Persistent inflation and stagnant economic growth may result in stagflation in different parts of Asia, including India.

All this means that (a) this phase of economic globalisation will not be sustainable and it will be a transit to the next phase, (b) there will be a new protectionism (particularly in terms of commodity markets, food etc), and (c) There will be more regional trade and regional economic activism.

So, there will possibly be a tendency to regulate finance flow and there will be more restriction for commodity markets. The elections and politics of Europe and the USA will be forced to address the issue of the vulnerable middle class and the poor. Look at the election promises in the USA – it's about jobs. The health system and social security are also top of the agenda. There will be political pressure to increase the allocation for the social sector and for creating new jobs and a reduction of foreign aid (this is what happened in Japan from 1999 onwards).

The next US President will be forced to initiate new protectionism and new social welfare measures. This will have an impact on global trade. The oil price hike may affect travel as well as trade (due to higher freight charges). All this does not mean a “reversal of globalistion”. It means a new phase of globalisation along with a new protectionism in many countries. There will be scope for a New Deal and a new kind of social democratic politics in Europe and elsewhere.

The world is on the threshold of a new phase. The present economic slowdown is likely to persist for another four years. It will influence the shape of the economy, political dynamics and geo-politics in the years to come.

*John Samuel is a social activist and the International Director of Actionaid.

* Please send comments to or comment online at http://www.pambazuka.org/

Anglican conservatives have finally declared dissolution of the Anglican Communion in a 94-page document titled The Way, the Truth and the Life. The conservatives concede that they will not associate themselves with liberals who tolerate homosexuality and ordination of women in the communion.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour congratulated today the Human Rights Council on its adoption of an important new human rights instrument to strengthen the protection of economic, social and cultural rights. "This is a highly significant achievement", she said. "The Protocol will provide an important platform to expose abuses that are often linked to poverty, discrimination and neglect, and that victims frequently endure in silence and helplessness.