Following the release of the latest IMF 'regional economic outlook' report for sub-Saharan Africa, Stephen Marks argues that predictions around Africa's ability to bounce back from the global economic crisis rest on a number of 'good-news' assumptions.

In this week's emerging powers news, focus shifts to China's dealings with various African countries, notably Guinea, which has been under the spotlight for the brutal suppression of pro-democracy demonstrations. Elsewhere, a GreenPeace report accuses Chinese and under multinationals of breaching environmental regulations.

In this week's emerging powers news, Stephen Marks looks at claims by Robert Fisk that Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading, a new report from the IMF suggesting that emerging and developing countries are leading the recovery from the global financial crisis, and demands by Africa's poorest nations for representation in the G20

This week, Stephen Marks reviews Jamie Monson's book, . The book tells the story of the TAZARA Railway - a symbol of the first heroic stage of China’s involvement in Africa and an ideologically inspired symbol of anti-imperialist solidarity, in contrast with today’s more pragmatic and market-driven Chinese engagement with the continent.

Stephen Marks reflects on the recent detention of four Shanghai-based executives of the Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto on spying charges earlier this month. Whereas Western governments and business leaders feared the possible implications of the incident for Western firms doing business in China, Marks argues that the incident may well signal a shift of gear in China’s economic strategy.

The nature of China's investment in Africa is changing, as the global economic crisis opens up new opportunities, writes Stephen Marks. Broad packages bundle infrastructure investment with aid and commodity purchase help Chinese firms enter African markets and gain a foothold. A US$5 billion China-Africa Development Fund will focus on infrastructure and mining, and target industrial parks and commercial agriculture. The Chinese government has said however that it has ruled out outsourcing of food production by investing in overseas farmland.

Following the G20 meeting in London last week, Stephen Marks unpacks the spin behind the apparent swelling of financial resources available for a global recovery plan. While the IMF remains free to impose the infamous conditionalities that have been the bane of many of its recipient countries, Marks highlights the glaring irony of an organisation that has long pressured others into reform without ever being subject to self-reflection and change itself. While the motives of each G20 player may differ, Marks writes, China at least has a clear interest in seeing the reforming rhetoric of the meeting turned into genuine action and greater representation for developing nations.

China’s continuing African trade investment and aid could act as a buffer for African economies, a recent report suggests. And if China can steer its way through the crisis it could become a ‘development partner of choice’, increasing its ‘soft power’ influence in the developing world and acting as a steadying factor in trade and investment compared to the West, writes Stephen Marks.

Though once distinguished by its lack of military presence in Africa, China’s recent foray into anti-piracy control off the coast of Somalia and increased participation in international peacekeeping initiatives have led to speculation surrounding the Asian giant’s desire to adopt a more powerful and independent militaristic role. Reflecting on the correlation between China’s rising economic growth and increasing concerns for national security measures, Stephen Marks considers the potential impact of military competition on the African continent.

South Africa is home to one of the largest Chinese communities in Africa, estimated at over 300,000. Most have arrived since the establishment of diplomatic relations between South Africa and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1988, many of them as illegal overstayers. There are also an estimated 30,000 Taiwanese, the remainder of a once larger population of over 100,000 established during and after the 1970s, when the apartheid regime established close relations with Taipei.

For Stephen Marks, given the interdependency between the United States and China, President Obama will have to tread carefully on trade as well human rights issues. He cautions there is a “danger of mounting economic crisis converting into political instability in which the smallest miscalculation, in Washington or Beijing could have unforeseen consequences.”

The new year was an occasion for the world’s pundits to review the global economic shock and its impact, including its implications for China and Africa. Former Chief Economic Advisor to the IMF Professor Nouriel Roubini was one who did not mince his words.

‘‘The global financial system in 2008 experienced its worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. ...Unfortunately, . The entire global economy will contract in a severe and protracted U-shaped global recession that started a year ago. The U.S. will certainly experience its worst recession in decades, a deep and protracted contraction lasting at least through the end of 2009. Even in 2010 the economic recovery may be so weak -- 1 percent growth or so -- that it will feel terrible even if the recession is technically over.

China’s increasing African involvement often appears to generate more journalism than scholarship, and its coverage all too often tells us more about Western fears and myths than about Chinese intentions and African needs and priorities. African voices, and informed international scholarship are both heard too little. An initial step to remedying the first defect was Fahamu’s 2007 publication African perspectives on China in Africa edited by Firoze Manji and the present reviewer. Chris Alden, Daniel Large and Ricardo Soares de Oliveira's volume goes a long way to remedying the second - though the three editors and many of their contributors are both already known for their substantial individual contributions.

Stephen Marks looks at the rising influence of China in the global economy in the wake of the financial crisis. China’s top economic decision-makers, gathering for a key meeting in Beijing, were reported to be planning a new tax boost to the economy, as support was pledged to recession-hit firms from airlines to carmakers. But latest figures showed the recession’s impact was worse than expected. Officials began their annual three-day Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing, which sets the tone for policies for the coming year. Informed sources suggested they could by 1 percentage point from the current 5 percent which would amount to a 120 billion yuan ($17.5 billion) boost.

Stephen Marks looks at the latest rush by China and countries in the middle east to sign lease agreements in poor countries for agricultural production, and what this trend means in terms of food security and access to arable land for local populations.

Stephen Marks does a roundup of this week's China-related news from Africa and around the world.

Stephen Marks does a roundup of China-related news for Africa and around the world.

Stephen Marks looks at the increasingly important role of China and other southern powers as evidenced by the recently-announced stimulus package in the face of the current global financial crisis.

This week’s China-Africa Watch by Stephen Marks features Chinese responses to the Obama election, details of developments in Sudan and the DRC, the Chinese railway industry in Africa, and China’s trouble in the face of global economic downturn.

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/404/China_in_Africa_tmb.jpgWith China’s ‘rise’ prompting new questions around the country’s strategy and the motivations behind how it conducts its international affairs and foreign policy, Stephen Marks considers the direction the country may take in light of new developments. Dispelling simplistic interpretations of Chinese indifference to human rights and environmental concerns in countries like Sudan and Zimbabwe, the author that the Asia giant has an essential interest in promoting peace, social stability, good governance and equitable development in its African partner countries.