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Today's News Monday 4th March 2002
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Business Report 4/3/2002

Cosatu affirms faith in ANC

Johannesburg - The trust between Cosatu and the ANC had been re-established
following bilateral meetings between the two parties earlier this year,
Cosatu's president said on Friday.

Willie Madisha also said the union's proposed strike against privatisation
would not take place in the beginning of this year. He said this was to give
the ANC a chance to engage seriously with Cosatu's demands. Madisha also
denied there were irreconcilable differences between the union and the ANC,
Cosatu's alliance partner.

The labour union did, however, point to the many areas of government policy,
especially economic policy, that it did not support. "These will be
discussed at the 10-a-side meeting on March 9 to 10 and the Alliance summit
on April 3 to 7," Madisha said. Madisha also said Cosatu would continue to
engage with government at forums such as Nedlac and the bilaterals on the
restructuring of state-owned enterprises. "In all these processes of
engagement, Cosatu will remain committed to E the eradication of poverty and
the addressing of unemployment and extreme inequality," Madisha said.
http://www.busrep.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click_id=345&art…
t20020303185533622N200677&set_id=60
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Business Report 4/3/2002

ERPM invites unions to negotiate profit sharing
Sherilee Bridge
March 04 2002 at 06:28AM
Johannesburg - East Rand Proprietary Mines (ERPM), the Boksburg mine brought
out of liquidation two years ago, invited mining industry unions back to the
negotiation table to restructure the labour packages of its 4 800 employees
to include equity or profit sharing.

Paseka Ncholo, the executive chairman of Khumo Bathong Holdings, said on
Friday that the revived mine turned in its first profit in December last
year.

An additional R42 million would be spent on capital projects this year that
would bring total investment in the mine to about R200 million, with the
original mine purchase and rehabilitation costing R140 million.

Khumo Bathong, the black economic empowerment company that last month took
an equity stake in Durban Roodepoort Deep, owns 30 percent of ERPM. The
balance is held by German venture capitalist Claas Daun.

ERPM hoped to seal a deal with the unions by the end of the March quarter.

"We are asking our employees to take joint ownership of the mine by growing
the mine's production through productivity levels at the stope face," says
Ncholo.

He said all profit made above target would be split between the mine's
shareholders, management and the miners.

ERPM aimed to boost ore production from the current 320 000 tons a year to
350 000 tons by September. The new target was 450 000 tons by next year,
said Ncholo.

http://www.busrep.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click_id=345&art…
t20020303202512429C615243&set_id=60
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Business Report 4/3/02

Whitehead staff back at work after backpay deal
Margie Inggs
March 04 2002 at 07:01AM
Durban - The dispute between 1 000 striking David Whitehead workers and
management at the Tongaat textile factory was resolved last week, when the
company agreed to backpay workers to December 8 and restore conditions of
employment effective before that date.

The Southern African Clothing and Textile Workers Union (Sactwu) accused the
firm of unilaterally slashing wages by 15 percent and changing conditions of
employment regarding overtime, Saturday work, bonuses and night shift
allowance.

Production came to a standstill when the strike commenced on Wednesday.
However, the plant was back in full swing on Saturday after the company
agreed to backpay workers in two instalments in March and April.

Stefano Magni, David Whitehead's chairman, said last week that company wages
were above bargaining council rates and wage realignment was necessary to
return the firm to profitability.

Senior management had already taken a 15 percent wage cut and 65 senior
staff members had been retrenched or lost through natural attrition.

Andre Kriel, Sactwu's deputy secretary general, said an agreement governing
minimum wages had been negotiated at bargaining council level last June, in
terms of which specific plant level agreements giving workers a better deal
than bargaining council agreements could not be unilaterally changed to the
disadvantage of workers.

"However, the mix of benefits can be amended, provided benefits are not
reduced," Kriel said.

David Whitehead, which was bought from Tongaat Hulett in June, had made a
substantial loss for four years at the time of the acquisition.

"However, turnover has increased E and the order book is looking good,"
Magni said.
http://www.busrep.co.za/general/busrep/br_newsview.php?click_id=345&art…
t20020303191008211C300203&set_id=60
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Business Day 4/3/02

Alliance needs one voice'

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----

Labour Reporter

THE tripartite alliance summit and preceding bilateral meetings will try to
find a common approach to socioeconomic questions before the growth summit
scheduled for later this year. Such a summit would, however, need to know
what government was bringing to the table.

The Congress of SA Trade Unions (Cosatu) emerged from an executive committee
meeting last week with a clear mandate that said: "There must be agreement
that, to create the climate for building a new national consensus, no areas
of economic policy should be non-negotiable."

Cosatu president Willie Madisha said the bilaterals and the summit,
scheduled for next month, needed an alliance approach to "key socioeconomic
policy questions, fiscal and monetary policy, an alternative investment
strategy, a job creating industrial strategy, comprehensive social security
and HIV/AIDS".

How this would be achieved was a difficult matter, Cosatu said, due to the
"problem" of "economic ministers (who) seem unwilling to accept any explicit
admission that their policies have been problematic".

Cosatu reaffirmed commitment to its alliance with the African National
Congress government and the SA Communist Party as "the only vehicle capable
of driving social (change)".

However, attention needed to be given to the "functioning" of the tripartite
structure, requiring "agreed socioeconomic policies".

Cosatu also decided to suspend provisionally its strike action against
privatisation in the first quarter of this year. "Workers will remain
mobilised for strike action later this year if progress is not made on this
issue," said Madisha.

He said the suspension of the strike was to give an opportunity for "serious
engagement to proceed".

"There needs to be a reciprocal commitment from government to suspend any
unilateral action over privatisation, which could damage the possibilities
of progress."

Mar 04 2002 12:00:00:000AM Irene Louw
http://www.bday.co.za/bday/content/direct/1,3523,1036276-6099-0,00.html
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The Star 4/3/02

Mandela urges free Aids drugs on demand

By Lynne Altenroxel

Nelson Mandela has asked the government to provide free drugs to Aids
patients. This radical proposal was made at a press conference in
Johannesburg on Sunday in the presence of some of President Thabo Mbeki's
most trusted advisers.

The move would entail a complete about-turn in government policy. Acting
President Jacob Zuma, Minister in the Office of the Presidency Essop Pahad,
African National Congress secretary-general Kgalema Motlanthe and head of
the ANC presidency Smuts Ngonyama sat next to Mandela as he made the
surprise announcement.

'We can't afford to be conducting debates while people are dying'
Notably absent was the president himself, who was in Australia at the
Commonwealth summit, and Health Minister Dr Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who
was addressing a women's meeting. Motlanthe confirmed that Madiba's request
was to be discussed by the ANC at a meeting of its national executive
committee on March 15.

Mandela's suggestion is simple: On the issue of mother-to-child transmission
of HIV, the government would continue its "research" into Nevirapine
programmes at 18 official pilot sites. But patients attending public
hospitals and clinics should be allowed to make up their own minds as to
whether to take anti-retrovirals before the research results are finalised.

"My proposal, both to the government and the ANC, is that (people should be
told): We are busy conducting this research, but people who feel they can't
wait for these findings must be free to consult with doctors if they wish.
"We can't afford to be conducting debates while people are dying. We have to
ensure that our people are given the drugs which are going to help them.
This is a war." The announcement has raised the eyebrows of political
analysts and Aids activists.

Professor Tom Lodge, of Wits University, said Mbeki's absence could be a
face-saving device. "All one can assume is that this is a fairly decisive
move by Mandela," said Lodge. "It will be rather difficult for them to talk
their way out of this one."
Ngonyama said Mbeki's absence was coincidental. Mandela blamed it on the
president's hectic schedule. "The only problem is that the president is too
busy, both with internal and external affairs, as you know. The task now of
leading on the question of Aids falls on the deputy president here," said
Mandela, indicating Zuma.

Zuma said he and the others present could not comment on Mandela's proposal
because it had not yet been discussed by the ANC. Mandela's announcement has
been welcomed by the Treatment Action Campaign.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=13&art_id=ct20020303213142661M3…
&set_id=1
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The Mercury 4/3/02

Engen's R500 fine just a drop in the barrel

By Tony Carnie

Durban's Engen fuel refinery, owned by the Malaysian fuel giant Petronas,
has been fined R500 by the Durban waste water department for polluting the
Badulla Canal in Merebank with 3 000 litres of oil last week.

In a separate incident last week, the owner of a Durban fishing trawler was
fined R10 000 by the SA Marine Safety Authority for polluting the harbour.

A spokesperson for Durban waste water said besides the R500 fine the company
would also have to pay the costs of cleaning up the spill as well as the
labour and other costs associated with calling out Durban Metro officials.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=594&art_id=ct20020303200138959E…
19&set_id=1
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SABC News 4/3/2002

Ban on 4X4 sparks protests

Protestors took to the streets of St Lucia, in northern KwaZulu-Natal, today
against the national ban on 4X4 vehicles on beaches. They claim that tourism
in the area has plummeted since the imposition of the ban.

According to the protesters 60% of workers in and around the town will be
unemployed by the end of March if the drop in tourists continue. Sipho
Msweli, a fruit vendor, says: "Our business is completely down, it's dead,
all vegetables and fruit that we are suppose to sell is getting rotten
because nobody buys."

The beach is the backbone of the town's economy. Thousands of tourists come
to the area to hit the dunes with their 4X4s. This time last year, the town
was almost fully booked. Now demand has dropped to a mere 1%. Demonstrators
agree that the environment must be protected, thus they are demanding a
seven kilometre 4X4 trail to save their town.

Fortunately, there is an indication that government may be willing to review
the situation in view of the town's plight.
http://www.sabcnews.co.za/south_africa/social/0,1009,29432,00.html
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SA Labour Bulletin 4/3/2002

The intervention of South Africa in Lesotho

International pressure is often placed on South Africa to play a
constructive role in the region.

Mondli Hlatshwayo questions whether it is possible and desirable for South
Africa to play a constructive and developmental role in SADC.

It is generally accepted that South Africa is an 'economic power ' house
(relative to other countries) in the Southern African region.This is borne
out by the fact that the country accounts for two thirds of the regions
gross domestic product (GDP). Does this then qualify South Africa to lead
the development of the region? The ideal situation is that such leadership
should be exercised in a manner that does not alienate other countries and
citizens of the region.One of the main conditions for South Africa 's
'benign hegemonic ' role in the region is to drive a developmental
agenda.However, the adoption of the growth,employment and redistribution
strategy (Gear)has prevented this from occuring.For me,the adoption of
neoliberal policies are not reconcilable with the type of developmental role
that South Africa should be playing in the region.

For South Africa to be the dominant player who acts in the long term
interests of the countries in the region,not only just
those of the home state ('benign hegemony'), it will have to be cautious in
its use of power in the region.It has to ensure that it leads the
development of the region with 'consent '. The minimum conditions for South
Africa to play a 'benign hegemonic ' role in the region include the
following:

?Southern African Development South Africa 's role in the region Community
(SADC)member states must accept South Africa 's hegemonic leadership.
?South Africa must create consent in the region.
?Countries must have some economic capacity to be part of the economic
bloc.On the other hand South Africa
needs economic capacity in order to play a dominant role.
?Countries of the region need institutional capacity to implement the
decisions taken in SADC forums.
?The question of political acceptance, peace and stability in the region is
critical.The war in Congo raised big
questions about the acceptance of South Africa 's political leadership there
as well as other countries such as Zimbabwe,Angola and Namibia led some
commentators to think that South Africa was a 'bully '.There is an
indication that South Africa is not 'fully ' embraced by the region.On the
other hand,South Africa,through former President Mandela,was 'accepted ' in
the peace processes in Rwanda.

The conclusion of the European Union Trade Agreement by South Africa without
consultation in the region is an indication
that South Africa treats its regional partners as 'juniors ' .This approach
has also been criticised by the likes of Cosatu.
More importantly,it is not possible for South Africa to play a dominant role
in the region because of the adoption of its
neoliberal policies.The shift away from the 'developmental ' agenda to the
neoliberal agenda indicates the increasing power of
capital in the region and internationally. The investment of South African
capital in the region is not driven by the need to
ensure access to basic services but rather an indication of the need to
participate in the 'race to the bottom line '.

South Africa 's 'begin hegemonic ' role in the region was based on an
approach that put the needs of the people of South
Africa and the region at the centre.The Reconstruction and Development
Programme (RDP)was an attempt to achieve this.It argued for balanced trade,
the development of the economic capacity for SADC countries,development of
the regional industrial base,mutually benefiting joint projects and minimum
standards with regard to workers ' rights in the region.

In1995 the South African Department of Trade and Industry developed an
investment initiative for the region called Spatial Development Initiatives
(SDIs). One of the most prominent projects is the Maputo Development
Corridor and the Mozal project.The projects are in line with the governments
' approach,which emphasises export orientation and the integration of the
region into the 'competitive ' global economy.South Africa encouraged
capital to invest in Mozambique.However,we cannot assume that the investment
of capital in the region will automatically lead to development.

South African companies are investing in Mozambique because of access to tax
benefits,cheap labour,cheap infrastructure and low cost of labour. These
investments are not driven by a 'developmental ' agenda rather one motivated
by profit maximisation.We should condemn South African companies that are
searching for cheap black labour in the region.I am not saying there should
be no investments in the region.However, investment should be linked to a
developmental agenda coupled with granting workers decent wages and
employment conditions.

The new agenda is deepening inequalities in the region.In addition,countries
in the region are faced with challenges such as
HIV/AIDS,debt payment,cut in social expenditure,etc.For me the neoliberal
policies are not reconcilable with the developmental role South Africa
should be playing in the region.These policies promote 'recolonisation ' and
the 'race to the
bottom '.

Conclusion

The abandonment of Gear is critical if South Africa is to play a leadership
role in the development of the region.In the meantime,trade unions,civil
society in South Africa and the region should struggle for such ideals.Their
struggle should be 'connected ' to the struggles of 'anti globalisation and
exploitation ' forces of the South and the North.This is difficult
but we can achieve it!

Hlatshwayo is a Wits sociology student.
____________________________________
SA Labour Bulletin 4/3/2002

Employment trends

Has the economy created jobs since Gear?

In a country such as South Africa,which is characterised by high levels of
unemployment, researchers continue to focus on where or how jobs are being
lost or created.Haroon Bhorat found in a recent study that more than 1,1
million jobs were created between 1995 and 1999.A key factor determining
employment shifts has been the downsizing of the public sector.

Bhorat has found that contrary to conventional wisdom the economy (including
both formal and informal sectors)did create jobs between 1995 and 1999 but
these were not sufficient to accommodate the demand for jobs by new entrants
to the labour market.As a result, there has not been jobless growth in the
economy but rather a situation of poor employment growth.The data also
revealed that various groupings of workers benefited more than others from
this growth.It was clear that skilled and semi- skilled workers benefited at
the expense of unskilled workers. These findings emerged from a study Bhorat
did as part of an analysis of both demand and supply trends in the South
African labour market.In doing so,the study focused on determining
employment trends relative to growth rates in the local labour force.Out of
this emerged the result that the economy had not been experiencing jobless
growth,as initially predicted.

Between 1995 and 1999,employment increased by about 1,1 million workers.
This represents a 12%increase over the
five-year period.Table 1 provides an overview of employment shifts during
this period.The table presents total
employment shifts in the economy according to sector and occupation. The
data reveals that the notion of
aggregate 'jobless growth ' in the South African economy is erroneous.The
economy,in the aggregate,has been creating jobs rather than shedding them.It
is important however,to put this expansion of employment into context.
Specifically,it is necessary to assess the number of jobs that have been
created, relative to the new entrants into the labour market.

The data indicates that between 1995 and 1999,the number of new entrants
increased by about 3,1 million individuals.
Over the same period,1,1 additional jobs were created.This has meant
therefore, that about 2 million individuals,some of
whom were first-time entrants into the labour market,have remained jobless
since 1995.

Therefore,while the economy did not experience jobless growth,it was faced
with 'poor employment growth ' during the five years under review.Put
differently, while employment grew at 12%over the period,if all the new
entrants were to have been placed into employment since 1995,employment
would have needed to have grown by 33,4%over the period.In other words,in
order to maintain unemployment at its 1995 levels, employment should have
risen by close to three times the existing rate. Ultimately,while employment
expansion was recorded over the five-year period,it was far from adequate.

Employment shifts

Having recorded employment growth,it is important to determine the
distribution of these employment gains at the sectoral
and occupational level so as to evaluate the winners and losers from these
overall employment changes. The detailed employment shifts indicate that the
national employment expansion,had a differential impact at a sectoral
level.Hence,we find that the largest increase in employment was reported for
the financial and business services sector,where employment grew
by 61%over the five-year period.It is worth noting that this growth rate is
double the 33,4%'target ' employment
growth rate mentioned above.The second and third fastest growing sectors
were construction (31%)and internal trade
(28%).

In order to maintain unemployment at its 1995 levels,employment should have
risen by close to three times the existing rate.
These high employment numbers reveal the continued expansion of the services
sector,in keeping with global trends.This includes in part,the construction
industry,which does have a fairly significant services component.
Furthermore,the construction data also suggests that short-term,albeit
modest, gross domestic product (GDP)growth resulted in employment gains for
a sector that is very pro-cyclical in nature. Indeed,the growth in the
services sector and the consequent positive impact on employment in these
sectors is a trend that is likely to intensify and continue over the
medium-to long-run in South Africa.
An interesting result is that while all the service sectors reported healthy
did not reveal the patterns observed in the long-run labour demand
analysis,namely that both primary sectors were in secular decline.

Instead,while agriculture continued to shed jobs,the mining industry gained
some 45 000 new workers over this
period.Although the overall increase in mining was not skills-neutral,it is
important to note that one of the economy 's key primary sectors is creating
jobs.Noticeably,the economy 's largest contributor to GDP,manufacturing,has
seen its employment levels rise by about 7%since 1995.While clearly a
positive trend,this is half the national growth rate, and five times below
the target employment growth rate of 33,4%over the same period. Countering
the above notion of an expansion in mining employment however,and indeed in
some of the other sectors such as manufacturing and community services,is to
examine the
changes in the shares of total employment by sector between 1995 and 1999.
Table 2 presents this evidence.It is clear that despite the growth in mining
employment as a share of total employment,the mining work force has
declined.Therefore,in 1995,mining accounted for 4,61%of total employment,
The most interesting trend is the decline in the utilities sector employment
and the poor employment performance within community,social and personal
services. employment growth rates,community, social and personal services
was the only service sector to yield a poor employment performance over the
period. The sectors that reported a decline in employment levels since 1995
were utilities (6,6%)and agriculture (3,3%)and the unspecified category
(-14,0%).The largest employment drop therefore,was found in the
latter,followed very closely
by utilities.This shorter term data analysis while in 1999 this had fallen
marginally,to 4,54%.Similarly, manufacturing share of
employment fell by 0,73 percentage points,while the poor community services
performance is reflected in the largest employment share reduction of -3,03
percentage points.

In contrast,increases in the share of employment was reported for
construction, internal trade,transport and financial and business
services.The latter in particular saw the highest percentage point rise in
its share of employment.The data corrolates with the long-run analysis,
indicating that significant job reallocation is taking place from the
primary sectors and some secondary sectors,toward parts of the services
industry. The most interesting trend in the data is the decline in the
utilities sector employment and the poor employment performance within
community,social and personal services.Both these are
dominated by the public sector.The community services data requires a
slightly more detailed explanation here.It
needs to be remembered that the sector includes those individuals employed
within the domestic services sub-sector.

The data,not shown above,reveals that employment in this sector grew by
about 180 000 employees in the period.If we
exclude this figure,we arrive at a more accurate estimation of employment
shifts within the public sector per se. Dealing with the public sector in
this manner,reveals that employment actually fell by some 143 000 workers
between 1995 and 1999.This figure more closely reflects the changes that the
public sector has been undergoing since 1995.The data reflects a public
sector that is in the process of significant restructuring.In addition,the
data makes it clear that the job destruction in the public service has been
both rapid and particularly large.The loss in utilities was relatively
small,but is representative of a sector that employs
under 100 000 workers.Ultimately then,at the sectoral level,the growth data
for 1995 to 1999,reveal that the employment losses that occurred were
predominantly in the public sector,with all other sectors, barring
agriculture,reporting a rise in
employment levels.

These results are a manifestation of the new government 's intention to
reduce inefficiencies within government,reduce
the size of the public sector wage bill and finally to drive its
restructuring plan around the notion of outsourcing non-core
functions at all tiers of government.The result of this extensive and rapid
public sector restructuring programme therefore, has been significant
employment losses within the sector. The important point though is to try
and determine which occupations within each of these sectors bore the brunt
of the overall employment losses,or as the case may be,gained most from
intra-sectoral employment growth.

Table 1 reveals that the demand for all occupational groups increased,with
the exception of clerks. The number of clerks
fell by just over 50 000 over the same period - representing a 4,5%decline
in employment over the period.The second
poorest performers were technicians, whose employment essentially remained
constant over the period.In terms of
increased labour demand,the largest increases were recorded for
professionals (73%)and managers (38%),who together
accounted for close to 450 000 new jobs created over this
period.Interestingly,the third largest increase was recorded for
craft workers,whose employment rose by about 25%since 1995.The employment of
sales staff also increased over this period, at an average rate of 17%across
all sectors. Two categories of workers have been omitted from Table 2,namely
workers in domestic services and individuals categorised as skilled
agricultural workers.

The reason is that the numbers presented for these categories are difficult
to interpret and deserve special,if not separate, attention.For example,one
of the strange things the data reveals is that domestic services gained some
127 000
skilled agricultural employees,while lost close to 770 000 labourers.This is
a change that is very hard to explain,and
may be purely due to altering definitions of the skilled agricultural worker
category from 1995 to 1999.

One of the factors that may have influenced this definitional change could
be,for example,the fact that many individuals ostensibly doing domestic work
in rural areas,are in fact primarily farmworkers.By the same token,the huge
increase in the aggregate demand for this occupation of some 395 000 workers
yielding an increase of 344% over the period,is simply too large as to
represent a pure employment shift.It may rather be the changing definitions
used in the two survey years,combined with the implicitly amorphous nature
of the occupation,that has resulted in these numbers. Given the uncertainty
around these figures,it is probably fair to assume that the figures for
elementary employees within agriculture,better reflects the changing pattern
of farmworker employment.In turn, the change in domestic services employment
is probably more accurately reflected by the reduction in employment of
elementary employees,rather than the aggregate shift,which reports a rise in
domestic service employment.

Conclusion

The data reveals various trends that have emerged in the post-apartheid
period.The notion of 'jobless growth ' for the South
African economy,is clearly erroneous.The important caveat to this reasoning
though, is that the labour force has simultaneously
grown at a higher rate. In net terms then,employment expansion has been
relatively poor.In addition,it is evident that across the
different sectors,semi-skilled and skilled workers are gaining - a fact
contrary to the long-run labour demand analysis, which suggested that it was
primarily skilled employees who were gaining. Indeed,some of the
sectors,such as wholesale and retail trade,revealed a rise in demand for
unskilled workers as well.

But the data continues to suggest that skilled workers are still undoubtedly
gaining more than those below them in the occupational ladder. The one
result that is directly representative of state policy is the process of
public sector restructuring.It is the set of initiatives that have
characterised this downsizing of the sector,which have resulted in some 145
000 jobs being shed over the five-year period.It is clear then that the key
domestic employment shift since 1995, has been the high rate of attrition
amongst public sector employees.This would seem to be the dominant trend in
explaining a number of the figures observed above.They reveal a public
employer attempting to drastically shrink its workforce.

Haroon Bhorat is a director at the Development Policy Research Unit,
University of Cape Town.This is a summary of his full research paper
entitled 'Labour market challenges in the post-apartheid South Africa:A
country profile '.
____________________________________
SA Labour Bulletin 4/3/2002

Collective bargaining

Will retrenchments trigger strike action?

Reneé Grawitzky looks at the potential trends around strikes and bargaining
in the year ahead.

Recent figures released by NMG-Levy Consultants and Actuaries have revealed
that strike action relating to calls for higher wages increased considerably
during 2001.The increase in mandays lost due to strikes rose from 500 000 in
2000 to 1,25-m last year.(Table 1 provides a clear picture of mandays lost
from 1979 to 2001 but these figures exclude the numerous stayaways that have
occurred during this period). This increase has largely been attributed to
many of the key sectors in the economy being embroiled in lengthy talks to
renegotiate multi-year agreements. Analysts believe this trend is unlikely
to continue this year because the main sectors,which traditionally account
for the majority of mandays lost,will already be tied into longer-term
agreements.They have,however,warned instead that amendments to section 189
of the Labour Relations Act (LRA),which grants workers the right to strike
over retrenchments, could be a trigger for strikes this year, especially in
the public sector.

The main strikes embarked upon during 2001 were:

?A two-week strike by CWU members at SA Post Office over the issue of a
reduction in overtime pay and certain
benefits.

?A short strike by Satawu members at Metrorail over the outsourcing of
access control services.

?A short strike by NUM members at Placer Dome over the issue of the
arrangement of working hours.

?A protracted strike by NUM members at Palabora Mining in Mphumalanga.

?A countrywide strike by Satawu at Spoornet over wages.

?A strike at the Engen Oil Refinery in Durban involving temporary workers.

?A three-day wage strike by members of Numsa,NUM and MWU-Solidarity at
Eskom.

?Three-week wage strikes by Numsa members in the automobile and tyre
sectors.

?A protracted wage strike by NUM members at Northern Platinum Mine.

?A wage strike by Sactwu members in the clothing industry in Gauteng.

?Strike by Numsa members at Samancor.

?A short strike by Numsa members at Toyota over retrenchments.

?A two-week strike by Numsa members at Midas.

?A solidarity strike by Numsa members at Billiton operations in support of
Mozambiqan workers at Mozal.

?A major wage strike by Satawu and a number of Fedusa-affiliated unions at
the SA Port Operations (Durban port).
Wages accounted for 75,2%of mandays lost and 55%of the number of strikes
while the main sectors affected were
automobile 41,7%,metal/manufacturing 12,2%,mining 16%,communication 11,8%,
transport 3,8%,paper/printing 2,7%,
chemical 2,3%and clothing 2,2%,and food 1,7%.The most active unions in terms
of mandays lost were:Numsa 59,8%,NUM
16%,CWU 11,8%,Satawu 3,4%,Ceppwawu 2,7%,and Sactwu 2,2%.

Wage settlements during 2001

Preliminary data released by the Cape Town-based Labour Research Service
(LRS) found that the medium settlement
level for the lowest paid workers was 8% with an average of 8,2%. LRS
director Sahra Ryklief says that based on an annual inflation rate figure of
5,7%workers would have received a real increase of 2,3%.However,a better
indicator of real increases for low-income earners would be to take CPIX as
the measure.Workers would in effect have received a real increase of
1,1%based on a CPIX of 6,9%.

Data released by Stats South Africa found that between September 2000 and
September 2001,the share of wages in the
national income was the lowest level since the Second World War,except for
1980. This illustrates that the gap between the rich and poor is growing.The
devaluation of the rand could exacerbate this trend.

Possible trends

It is highly questionable,at this stage,to state emphatically that the new
retrenchment clause in the LRA will impact on strike trends.On the
surface,it appears that undue hype has been attributed to this
amendment,which is yet to come into effect.The amendments are only likely to
be enacted towards the second half of the year.In any event,the right to
strike is coupled with a highly proceduralised process that has to be
followed before workers can strike over retrenchments.Claims that strikes
will significantly increase in the public sector as a result of this clause
need to be interrogated further.The public sector has not shown historically
that it is able to sustain a strike of more than two days as opposed to
trends in the private sector.

Economists have warned instead that what is more likely to affect worker
behaviour is the negative impact of the
rand.The decline in the rand could sharpen worker struggles around wages in
the year ahead.

Ryklief says predictions of a quieter year in relation to strike action
cannot only be attributed to whether the key sectors have entered into
multi-year agreements.There remained a number of key sectors which signed
traditional one-year deals such as paper and package, textile,leather and
others.Industrial action,she says,is very much determined by the state of
the economy and whether government will be able to continue keeping
inflation low. The state of the economy will determine whether parties will
be negotiating in a hostile environment or not.

Ryklief believes 'we are entering into a period of industrial instability '
as was the case last year.This,she says,has very little
to do with the retrenchment clause.The rand crisis and the subsequent rise
in interest rates will set the stage for bargaining in 2002.
____________________________________
SA Labour Bulletin 4/3/2002

Flippant remarks made at the beginning of December that the declining rand
would not affect the average South African,have
proved incorrect.

Reneé Grawitzky examines the potential positive and negative effects of the
declining rand on workers as well as the
subsequent rise in interest rates.

The rand fell by close to 40% against the dollar by December 2001.This
dramatic decline on its own could both positively and negatively affect
workers and generally consumers,not only those buying foreign
goods.However,the recent decision by the Reserve Bank to increase interest
rates by one percentage point could further aggravate the situation,
economists have warned.

A range of economists were interviewed in order to get a very broad
perspective on the impact of the declining rand on workers.All warned that
recent developments could impact negatively on the bargaining round in the
year ahead as the economy could see a massive redistribution of wealth away
from workers.This could sharpen worker struggles around wages.

Positives and negatives

Vincent Malunga,senior economist at Sanlam Investment Management said the
recent decline in the value of the rand could have both positive and
negative consequences for workers.On the positive side,this development
could be good for exports and companies that are more export oriented.If
companies are able to export more in the current climate (based on the
demand for their goods and their ability to supply)then there could be a
positive spin-off in terms of possible job creation. However,exporters too
need to import capital goods (like machinery)and this could be more
expensive for them. The increased costs could have a ripple effect. On the
negative side,the costs of imported goods will go up in price,but the same
will apply to locally made goods where their price is dollar linked such as
maize and wheat.This coupled with the petrol price will increase the cost of
food generally. A sharp rise in the costs of imports could lead to import
substitution where some goods can be made locally at a cheaper price.If it
is possible to produce certain products locally and consumers begin to buy
local,then there is a future potential for creating jobs.However, where the
country still needs to import, then consumers will have to pay a price
penalty. The lower end of the market will suffer more than the rich,Malunga
warns.This is because a higher proportion of the wages of low income earners
goes towards food. The potential increases in food prices will reduce the
purchasing power of workers ' salaries.Ultimately,there will be an indirect
redistribution from workers to high income earners especially if wages do
not keep up with inflation.

Cosatu 's reaction to interest rate hike

The demand around food security is increasingly featuring in Cosatu position
statements. Cosatu expressed concern over the
Reserve Bank 's decision to up the interest rate by a full percentage point.
'This decision will impose new hardships on
working people,at a time when they already face unaffordable increases in
food prices and job losses. It is especially hard to accept because it comes
on a relativelyhigh base of 9,5%,' the federation said. The interest rate
hike suggests that the Reserve Bank has once again decided to place low
inflation above growth and employment creation. When inflation targeting was
introduced,Cosatu said:'inflation must be fought by restructuring the
economy to create jobs and ensure dynamic growth,not by contradictory
measures that cause hardship and unemployment '.

The federation went on to say that the main inflationary pressure clearly
lay in the economically unjustified devaluation of the rand.In the
circumstances,raising interest rates seemed inappropriate, unnecessary,and
misguided.Cosatu went on to say that the Reserve Bank argued that the
interest hike will help hold down inflation without harming the economy,
because of stimulation from the depreciation of the rand.That ignores the
shaky state of the world economy,which is counteracting the stimulation from
an undervalued currency.Thus,throughout the world,governments with much more
prosperous and stable economies have been steadily cutting interest
rates.The high interest rate policy raises the cost of business transactions
and investment.That in turn makes job creation,home ownership and black
economic empowerment all the more difficult.
____________________________________

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