Wangui Wa Goro makes the case that hope for democracy in Kenya and Africa is with the civil society and citizens and calls for a national convention to map the way forward.

The Kenyan elections on Thursday December 27th 2007, after polling stations were closed, were supposed to fulfill an African dream, to have a free and fair closely contested democratic election. The outcome has shown the fragility of the postcolonial and post-dictator state of Kenya and much of Africa. After the carnage which has left over 500 people dead, over a quater of a million people displaced and many others fleeing from the region in fear of reprisals and for their lives, the dream had become a horrible nightmare, manifesting itself through murder, spontaneous rioting, organized thuggery, politically motivated and ethicized targeted attacks.

That was the week that was gripping the democratic world with shock and utter dismay and waking the world to the reality that the haven of peace, the African show case of democracy and the darling of the West was crumbling and revealing an unpleasant underbelly which has been camouflaged for far too long. It revealed the real Kenyan who is the casualty of party political posturing, a weak state, a world which has preferred not to see the decay of many years and the rot which has set in since colonial times to the present. The vulnerable, dispossessed, the economically and socially marginalised; and things may get worse before they get better. Kenya is a test case of what is happening all over Africa and the post-colonial world: The crumbling of a colonial and postcolonial order. It is not just an electoral moment, but the foundation of democracy, not just in Kenya but beyond. The question, after the storm, however is how Kenya and indeed Africa is going to move forward beyond the impasse created by a state and electoral system which has essentially collapsed and dictators who want to hang on to power to their very last at the expense of lives and the people.

We must look to the Kenyan people for an answer, as it is they who have to face the next morning, their children, their families, and not policies hatched out far away by well meaning, interested and benevolent friends, kith and kin, from which ever guise they may come. Here-in lies the answer to the question of the secret or not so secret passage out of the mess, and a huge mess it is.
Although from where we stand it does not look like it, the time for Kenyans and Africans has come. The overreliance on state, on the goodwill of parties or individual politicians, on paternalistic/maternalistic international benevolence has shown up the weaknesses in a nation which does not listen to its own people and which does not function within universally accepted democratic principles (please let me not hear the word relativism again!)

An emerging strong civil society is finally flexing its muscle on behalf of the Kenyan people and reminding the contending and other interested parties that the crisis goes beyond the electoral and constitutional issues to the very core of the identity of Kenya and Kenyans. In addition to adding a very clear political voice into the debate, the civil society and pro-people organisations have also rolled up their sleeves and stepped into action to alleviate the humanitarian suffering of their fellow citizens and have been acting as their own advocate both at home and abroad, thus performing the role of the state and its conscience in many instances.

In many ways, Kenyans have been pushing towards a Kenyan voice to be heard long before and after independence, only to be drowned and ignored by those holding state power and others whose interests seem to supersede those of the majority of Kenyans. This is through failed promises such as those of institutionalizing the constitution and holding of free and fair elections since Kenya became an independent state and worse, when it became a one party state. The history of Kenya is littered with the undermining of the constitution, banning opposition, repressing individuals, fraudulent elections and bypassing of the instruments of democracy by party, class and individual interests which have so far been the order of the day. No longer. As well as a very vocal opposition and in true Kenyan tradition, the Kenyans are not having it. Through the opposition party, civil society and Kenyans of conscience across all class, ethnic and social spectrum all over the world, a powerful message is emerging and the world needs to listen. The civil society and pro-people organisations in particular, speaking on behalf of the Kenyan people have issued a powerful statement which rejects the highjacking of people's democracy by refusing to recognize what they consider a "palace coup" which is what lies at the heart of the current disquiet despite its varied manifestations. However, they are not seeking piecemeal solutions and have quickly grasped the fact that solving the current crisis will require more than a temporary fix; a whole reconstruction. They recognize that Kenya needs to move on beyond the current crisis towards a longer term solution which calls for reconstructing a new democratic foundation. They feel that this is a national crisis and not just a party political issue which in any case, the country cannot leave to the interested parties to resolve on their own.

It is a courageous call on behalf of the Kenyan people that the civil society has called for a rejection of the regime as it is currently constituted and called for a process where electoral and human rights justice are pursued through all the means available. They have gone further and asked the international community not to recognize the regime. They are have also called for an interim government of national unity to oversee a transitional justice process which would go beyond the electoral crisis and one which would begin to look at the underlying issues which led to the current crisis including weaknesses in the system such as the constitutional and electoral arrangements. They are also calling for a national people's convention which would be part of building the road map out of the crisis and also leading to fresh elections. Such a legally constituted and recognized body as an interim government of national unity would be empowered to oversee such a transitional arrangement. Justice seems to lie at the heart of such a demand.

The international community has also moved swiftly by rallying to the Kenyan people's call and particularly the intervention of imminent people such as Desmond Tutu and President John Kuffour of Ghana, also the current head of the African Union. This demonstrates that there is hope in democracy through solidarity. The hope for a Pan-Africa solution seems highly prized and many in the world are watching with bated breath and hope that Kenya, for Pan African's sake can heed the wider call of the continent and its peoples. The world intellectuals, activist, ordinary people from all walks of life and media too, (despite initial negative reporting by the Western media in particular) has played a crucial role in engaging the Kenyan process with keen interest and itself is a promise of global democracy and solidarity out of which much of the democratizing process can be learned for all humanity.

The world wills it, only those without eyes will not see, those without ears will not hear and history will judge them individually and collectively, very harshly, in the public global glare of the media in the here and now and in the future.

* Dr. Wangui wa Goro: Kenyan human rights activist, writer, translator, academic and public intellectual. Currently Associate Fellow at the Institute of Human Rights and Social Justice; London Metropolitan University.

*Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

Keith Jennings writes on the blatant disregard for democratic principles in Kenya's contentious elections and the Bush administration's flawed foreign policy

In the immediate aftermath of the recent elections in Kenya, the Bush Administration wasted no time in sending its glowing congratulations to incumbent President Mwai Kibaki and the Kenyan Election Commission. But despite the subsequent attempt to ignore the congratulatory message, and adamant claim of a global commitment to democracy, the Bush Administration’s official stamp of approval for Kibaki and the elections reflected a de facto endorsement of a naked power grab and contempt for the democratic process.

To be sure, the Bush administration’s eagerness to embrace a stage-managed election reveals a sharp inconsistency between pronouncement and practice -- declining to support calls for a re-count and urging “all candidates to accept the Commission’s final result.” Some would argue that the Bush focus on security and economic interest supersede its rhetoric for democracy. Clearly, the Bush statement and its later about-face joint statement with Kenya’s former colonial masters –the British- reflects morally bankrupt policies which only see Kenya as a staunch ally and “frontline state in the global war on terrorism.”

The Kenyan people participated in a democratic process to elect the representatives of their choice. When the election results were leaning toward the challenger and long time pro-democracy activist, Raila Odinga, the democratic process was over taken by manipulation and fraud. How can a U.S. Administration that preaches democracy in almost biblical terms refuse to pressure the Kenyan government for a re-count or an independent audit? Of course, this question may strike some Americans as naïve in the light of the Florida and Ohio fiascos in our own 2000 & 2004 presidential elections.

After the Bush Administration, offered congratulations to Mwai Kibaki on December 30, in the midst of widespread violent clashes between civilians and Kenyan police, I have to agree with those commentators who have been critical of the Bush Administration’s democracy promotion policy in Africa. Moreover, how can the views of hundreds of European international observers, who proclaim a “staggering mismatch” between recorded vote counts at local polling stations and what the Election Commission officials announced, be ignored. One wonders what the Administration would be saying if this were Zimbabwe or Burma.

The fighting in the streets of Nairobi and police abuse started long before the recent election results were announced. In the pre-election period, numerous human rights violations occurred including the killing and beating of dozens of women candidates and widespread intimidation and violence against opposition politicians. Recent poll results indicate fraudulent vote counting in at least 72 constituencies, which equate to an undermining of the electoral process and a democratic set back once again on the African continent. While the democratic process should never be reduced to an election, it is during an election that the strength of a country’s democratic system is put to the test. This is clearly the case in Kenya.

After years of autocratic rule by Daniel Moi (who’s home was burned down last week), citizens from all walks of life and political persuasions closed ranks to elect a new government in 2002, one that promised never to treat the people the way they had been sidelined and marginalized by previous governments. The promises were soon broken as charges of corruption were leveled against high ranking members of the Kibaki Administration. Consequently, the Kenyan people rightfully expected and democratically prepared for change.

It is important to note that Kibaki’s party won only 35 of 210 parliamentary seats losing more than 20 of his cabinet ministers, including his vice president. These facts alone reveal the deep seated and widespread public resentment against the legendary corruption of the Kibaki Administration.
With an official result producing a less than 233,000 vote difference (4,584,721 for Kibaki to 4,352,993 for Odinga), what is in order is a recount and an independent audit of the tallying process and final results, not a hasty swearing-in of the controversial President for another five years with Bush’s blessings. That swearing-in was immediately followed by a media ban on live coverage of events, a ban on all public rallies and threats from the declared winner to “deal decisively with those who breach the peace.” We have heard those words before. The Kenyan peoples’ right of peaceful assembly and expression should be respected by the current government. The attempt to suppress any opposition to the fraudulent election results is bound to fail and only lead to more violence and conflict.

As it has been reported in the Kenyan and international media, even the Kenyan Election Commission chair, Samuel Kivuilu, admits that the Commission was under pressure by government, which raises questions of its independence. Commissioner Kivuilu also states that he is not sure ‘if Kibaki won the elections.’ At least five other Commissioners have said they are certain that the vote count was manipulated.

The Kibaki power grab may well cause Kenya, a model of stability in the East Africa region, to become another in the growing list of African countries that risk slipping down the path of ethnic conflict amidst a rekindling of old prejudices that has led to genocide in neighboring countries.

We have seen the U.S. government prioritizing its security concerns over democracy promotion in Africa before. Who can ever forget the shameful April 2007 elections in Nigeria, which provides the US with 12% of its oil needs? Nigerians refer to that election as the most fraudulent elections ever held in the country. Despite calls for electoral reform, official U.S. congratulations to Yar’Adua were followed by a recent White House visit, which ended with Yar’Adua promoting the establishment of the U.S. African Military Command that could potentially place U.S. soldiers throughout the continent despite opposition in Nigeria. No wonder many believe there is scant U.S. commitment to global democracy when its economic and military interests are relevant. The Bush Administration’s policies appear to respond to narrow, ill-perceived security and economic imperatives that will ultimately lead to long-term instability in Kenya and other parts of Africa.

It is more than noteworthy that as the 2005 Ethiopian elections were being won by the opposition at such an unprecedented rate that the Melis government intervened and halted the announcement of results. After a series of recounts and adjudication trails, which the opposition was not prepared for, it was once again business as usual, a witch’s brew of repression and torture. The arrest and detention on treason charges of all major opposition leaders followed. The Bush administration, which also sees Ethiopia as a staunch ally in the war on terror who is more than willing to do its bidding in Somalia, offered congratulations to Melis on his victory and urged “dialogue” and “reconciliation.”

As the optimism of the 1990s has given way to the more vexing problem of making democracy deliver on its promises, the past few years have been filled with setbacks for the democratic process in Africa, with the possible exceptions of the 2005 elections in Liberia and the 2007 elections in Sierra Leone. And the U.S. has been largely silent in its actions to reverse those setbacks.
The peace in Kenya was breached long before the day when the elections were stolen. Sanctimonious calls for peace, compromise and reconciliation will do no good when the people’s confidence in the democratic process is what is at stake and the legitimacy of those making the calls for “law and order” or respect for the rule of law is questioned.

The issue here is about power and the future of democracy in Africa not ethnic rivalries. Unfortunately some of the big men in Africa, as in other parts of the world, have not realized how to share power or to let it go when the will of the people is against their continued stay in office. There are those who talk about freedom and democracy but practice autocratic policies, they never really believed in the will of the people to begin with. What will be the world’s response to the farce currently underway in Kenya? Democracy in Africa or business as usual?

* Dr. Keith Jennings is President of the African American Human Rights Foundation and former Director of Citizen Participation for the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. He can be reached at [email][email protected]

* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

Mukoma Wa Ngugi argues that rather than being a people power movement, Kenya’s Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is modeled after political parties that consolidate democracy for International capital and US Foreign Policy. He discusses the differences between a people powered movement and one such as ODM that employs techniques modeled after the Ukrainian orange revolution and the ouster of Aristide in Haiti

One cannot fully grasp what is happening in Kenya and Africa without considering the changing nature of opposition movements and the differences between a people powered movement, or a democratic revolution, and a plethora of movements that consolidate democratic institutions for international capital while flying under the radar of democracy.

Even though here below I am mainly speaking about Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), I could just as easily be speaking about Mwai Kibaki and the Party of National Unity (PNU). It is only because ODM has actively courted the image of being a people powered movement engaged in a democratic revolution that I draw your attention to it. Amilcar Cabral once said “tell no lies, claim no small victories.” It is in that spirit that I write.

Let me begin by pointing to the question of ethnicity and say this: In the same way you ought to be surprised to meet a white American denying the existence of racism in American politics, so should you be when you meet an African denying that ethnocentrism is deeply entrenched in African politics. Racism is a historical creation that serves a function – so is ‘tribalism.’ In the same way that leaders in the West manipulate race and fear for political goals, so do African leaders. Ethnocentrism can be benign or extremely vicious depending on its conductor. Ethnocracy, like a racist power structure, exists to the extent it is able to obscure for the victim and the activist the root causes of economic, political and social exploitation. It misdirects.

Let us also consider Kwame Ture’s (Stokely Carmichael) reminder that we should not mistake individual success for collective success. The majority of Kenyans -- Luos, Kikuyus, Luhyas etc -- are poor. The 60 percent of Kenyans living under two dollars a day cut across all ethnicities. The Kikuyu elite live at the expense of the Kikuyu poor; it is the same for other ethnicities. There is much more in common between the poor across ethnicities, than between the elite and the poor of each ethnicity. Racism, nationalism, and ethnocracy all ask that the poor die in the defense of economic and social structures that keep them poor. It is no surprise that those who have been both dying and doing the killing in Kenya in the past week are the poor. Yet they are killing along ethnic, not class, lines.

And in the same way that over time western political parties come to represent different and contradictory positions, so have African political parties. In the dictatorships of the 1960s, 70s and 80s, the opposition parties were the good guys. Progressive international political analysts are still working with that framework, which has blinded us to glaring present-day contradictions. The assumption that opposition immediately means people-power cannot be sustained by an analysis informed by the complex shifts in African politics in the last two decades. Take Zimbabwe, for example. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change is a neo-liberal party. Calling it revolutionary or anti-imperialist would be wrong. In Kenya, both the sitting government and the opposition exchange members fluidly as they position and reposition themselves, eyes on the national cake. William Ruto, a top leader in the ODM was previously a treasurer for the KANU Youth Wing – a political thug organization created by former dictator Moi, who is now in Kibaki’s camp. And the recent church killings that claimed over 50 lives took place in Eldoret, which William Ruto has represented in parliament for many years.

Therefore not all opposition parties are anti-imperialist or opposed to the move by global capital to consolidate the world. At a time when the rich nations and their elite are getting richer, and the poorer nations and the poor within them are getting poorer, some opposition parties will choose the side of global capital. ODM is composed of some of the wealthiest people in the country. For example, the Odinga family owns Spectre International, a molasses company in conjunction with a multi national petroleum and diamond mining company. The international press, which refers to Raila as a “flamboyant millionaire”, is not entirely wrong.

With the above said, analysis of what it means to be a people powered movement is crucial. For people-power politics to be effective, solidarity has to be across ethnicity not along it. In other words, a people power movement has to at its basis be informed by the consciousness of a collective oppressed. Because it has no real grass roots developed over years of working with and for the people, ODM can only rile up discontentment by pointing to one ethnicity rather than organizing the whole country against elite exploitation. Like any populist movement it takes the worst fears of a people (fear of Kikuyu domination for example) and plays them out in the national stage. A people power movement on the other hand peels away these fears to reveal how power and wealth are being distributed. Because ODM has not done this, its supporters have identified the fellow poor Kikuyu as the enemy. A people power movement would have directed its energies and anger at the state not at another ethnicity.

A people power movement declares its solidarity with other marginalized peoples across the world. It is third-worldist in vision. A people power movement, because its vision grows organically from its struggle and engagement with the people, exhibits a stand against exploitative international economic arrangements because its constituents are impoverished through them. ODM cannot be termed as radical pan-Africanist or third-worldist, rather it has a populist consciousness.

Also, the shell – the façade -- of a people power movement can be used by a national elite to seize power for international capital. Rather than use the term populist/people power to refer to ODM, it is appropriate to borrow a term from the International Republican Institute. The term the IRI (www.iri.org) uses is “consolidating democracy,” referring to a technique it used in the Ukrainian Orange Revolution and in Haiti against Aristide. Consolidating democracy translates into bringing together civil organizations (religious, universities, local NGO’s, women’s organizations etc), and uniting various opposition factions into one large electoral force. If missionaries paved the way for colonialism, evangelists of western democracy like IRI pave the way for US foreign policy.

The sole purpose of consolidating democracy is to remove the sitting government. There is no coherent underlying people centered ideology in this goal – no interest in empowering the people, or returning economic and political institutions to them. Rather than develop real roots with the people so that when in power ODM becomes an extension of them, ODM has taken the easy route of consolidating democracy following the IRI model.

We urgently need to distinguish between people power movements (such as those we have seen in Latin America), populist movements, and neo-liberal opposition movements that consolidate democratic institutions for global capitalism. People power movements are a fifth force usually in opposition to the legislature, executive, judiciary and military. When they seize power through democratic means, they immediately attempt to transform the other four forces into revolutionary instruments. Laws nationalizing resources or redistributing land and resources are passed. The army is transformed from an instrument of intimidation into one that helps in times of disasters – in short a people power government places the people at the center of the state. When a movement that has been consolidating democracy gets into power it does the opposite, and the democratic structures become instruments of global capital and US Foreign policy. Liberia, for example, after working with IRI is one of the few countries to open its national door to the US African Command Center.

We should at least consider that the ODM has in the last few weeks not been engaged in the last phase of a people power revolution but rather in the last stage of consolidating neo-liberal democracy - using the people as the battling ram against the state. This is where the neo-liberal party calls for millions to take to the streets with the hope of immobilizing the state. Because consolidating democracy requires the ebb and flow of violence from the state and protest from the people, Raila could cynically tell a BBC reporter when asked whether he will appeal for calm that "I refuse to be asked to give the Kenyan people an anesthetic so that they can be raped."

In case you are wondering, let me say this: for progressives, Kibaki is not the answer. Before the elections, the Kenyan Human Rights Commission released a report implicating the Kenya police in extra-judicial killings of close to 500 young men, all from poverty stricken areas such as Kibera and Mathare, slums currently up in flames. This is a stark reminder that the 6 percent economic growth was not trickling down to the people. Also that vote rigging took place (on both sides it is turning out) is almost certain. Enough doubt has been cast by the electoral commissioners to make a recount of the votes, a reelection, a united government or another suitable solution a matter of democratic principle.

If the country is to heal, reconcile and find justice, progressive voices should call for a UN probe into the December – January post-election ethnic cleansing in Eldoret and other areas. There should be calls and support for a United Nations probe into the 1994 Rift Valley killings in which a reported hundreds of Kikuyus were killed and thousands displaced during Moi’s regime, and The Wagalla Massacre of 1984 (again during Moi’s regime) in which hundreds of Somali Kenyans were shot to death. Finally the non-electoral extra judicial killings of the 500 young men last year should also be investigated.

Progressives should also call for the crisis to be resolved within democratic structures. When Bush won an election that the rest of the world understood as rigged, we did not ask Al Gore to try and overthrow the government through an Orange revolution, we did not ask him to divide the country across racial lines, blacks pitted against whites, whites pitted against Latinos; we asked him to find redress through peaceful and democratic processes. And for that, the United States remains standing, in spite of Bush. Al Gore did not ask for a recount of all the votes, or for a re-election. But both Raila and Kibaki can form a united government; ask for a recount, and even a re-election. Whatever process or option is used to adjudicate this must be one that leaves Kenya standing for generations to come.

My plea to you is this: Let us not find revolutionaries where there are none. A whole nation, where ethnic cleansing has already started, is at stake. International solidarity should be with the Kenyan people and not with individual leaders. The best thing for Kenya right now is a return to a non-violent path governed by principled democratic structures that will outlive both Raila and Kibaki. It is this that will make possible a people powered government through a democratic revolution.

* Mukoma wa Ngugi is co-editor of Pambazuka News (www.pambazuka.org), author of Hurling Words at Consciousness and a political columnist for the BBC Focus on Africa Magazine.

* Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

I received your newsletter (Kenya Crisis: Action alerts at Pambazuka News/ Appeal on RapeCrisis Centres) and just wanted to say thanks for all the useful articles therein.

You may wish to alert your readers to the news service I work with in Nairobi. IRIN is part of the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs but wholly independent editorially. As you will see from the website, we have been providing extensive coverage of the humanitarian aspects of the current crisis and will continue to do so as it unfolds (and, hopefully, subsides).

One issue in particular we are focusing on right now is the increase gender-based violence. If you had further contacts other than the ones noted in your mail, I’d be most grateful.

I would like to point out one factual inaccuracy in your mail: as of Monday, 7th January, there are between 4,000 and 5,000 IDPs in Jamhuri park, not 75,000.

Best regards

Anthony Morland
Senior Editor, East & Central Africa
IRIN - Humanitarian News & Analysis
United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Tel: +254 20 762 2964
Mob: +254 738 220 009

I've been an ardent admirer of the work you and the Pambazuka News Team have been producing for several years now. Like many people, I subscribe to quite a few online newsletters. But Pambazuka is one of the few I impatiently wait to see in my inbox every week...Being involved in ICT4D and watching many initiative come and go, I've noticed that only a handful seem to be making a real difference. Pambazuka is definitely one of them.

Warmest regards and all the best for the New Year,

Usha.

This week's AU Monitor brings you important updates regarding the African Union's response to the post-election crisis occurring in Kenya.
Immediately following post-election uprisings, the African Union Commission delivered a Communique' on the situation in Kenya and reiterates its "attachment to democratic principles", especially when it pertains to "free, fair, and transparent elections".

Also, AU Chairman Ghanaian President John Kufuor accepted an invitation of Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki to visit Kenya and assess the situation in that country. Chairman Kufuor agreed to make the trip soon, stating that "Kenya had always been a flagship of Africa's rising image and nothing should be done to destroy the country". Further, Chairman Kufuor joined in the mediation efforts following post-election violence in Kenya , urging President Kibaki and opposition leader Odinga to "restrain their supporters to avert further violent clashes which could only lead to the destabilization of the great country, Kenya". Lastly, a Kenyan envoy recently met with Chairman Kufuor in Ghana to discuss strategies for ending the conflicts occurring in Kenya.

In other AU news, in his New Year message, AU Commissioner Konare' encourages continued efforts towards a unified continent, and calls for the continent to develop new alliances, envisioning a multi-dimensional continent. Further, the AU Commission is set to approve the appointments of a new Chairperson and eight new commissioners at its next Heads of State Summit this month in Addis Ababa.
A thirteen-member high-level panel, chosen by AU commissioners at the July Accra summit, conducted an audit of the AU and has produced a report which facilitates political integration on the continent.

Lastly, the AU Commission will hold a Private Sector Forum, with the theme "Africa's Industrial Drive: The Private Sector and Corporate Citizenship". The Forum will focus on ways of strengthening the private sector on the continent as it can play a key role in alleviating poverty and reducing the vulnerability of African countries.

In peace and security news, a UNAMID supplies convoy was recently attacked during a re-supply mission. Further, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has urged member states to speed up the process of sending units and equipment to UNAMID , which is still thousands of troops short of its intended goal of deploying 20,000 to the Darfur region. General Ki-moon adds that, "a robust and effective UNAMID will contribute towards Darfur's long-term stability".

Leaders of the Pan-African Parliament are calling for the Parliament to shift from its current advisory role to a legislative body, in order to "harmonize national laws across the continent to ensure free trade and common ties in various areas of cooperation to push the development of the continent forward".
The African Development Bank (AfDB) announced the receipt of a record-breaking US $8.9 billion of support for its African Development Fund. With this assistance, the AfDB commits to improving infrastructure, governance and regional integration on the continent.

In regional news, Damas Kanyabwoya provides commentary on the need for the East African Community (EAC) to focus on developing infrastructure and improving trade relations amongst member states, in order to improve the movement of resources and reduce transaction costs within the region.

In economic news, Emmanuel Wetang'ulagi provides analysis on how economic partnership agreements (EPA's) with Europe harm the policy autonomy of African countries, and that the negotiations taking place are "not bound to yield much for developing countries". Lastly, Bamuturaki Musinguzi discusses a paper entitled "The Impact of High Oil Prices on African Countries", which says that high oil prices can lead to a "decrease in output and consumption and to a worsening of the net foreign asset position of such said countries".
Lastly, the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering Group has been established by the United Nations to specifically address concerns in Africa.

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_01_whiteafrican.gif comments that sometimes the only thing you can do in a crisis is report what you see. Using technology from google maps he takes Kenyan Pundit’s (see below) suggestion and creates a mashup of incidents reported by citizens.

“Basically, let’s create a mashup that people can report into on incidences of violence that they see.........Basically, you have an incident - that hopefully someone gets a picture or video of. A report on what happened and who was involved, and a location. That information is submitted and then populated into a map-based view that is easy to search by location and/or category. “

The idea for the site was first suggested on Saturday and by Wednesday due to sheer hard work and collaboration the site Ushahidi (meaning Witness) was up and running http://www.ushahidi.com/. The next step is to integrate an SMS messaging function which would enable anyone with access to a mobile phone to send in reports. A brilliant idea and example of how technology can be implemented in a short time when there is a crisis.
http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_03_kenyanpundit.gifhttp://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_04_geraldbaraza.gifGerald Baraza is critical of the newly announced “illegitimate cabinet” announced by Mwai Kibaki which he describes as “Total Greed and Madness” and shows Kibaki has no regard for Kenyans, the democratic process or Kenya’s future. Baraza lists some of the possible outcomes of Kibaki’s announcement and makes some suggestions to the international community on how they can “save Kenya”...

“1. Tribal tensions will escalate to levels never witnessed before.
2. Feelings by majority of the Kenyan ethnic groups, especially the Luo, that Kibaki's dominant Kikuyu tribe has always given them a raw deal when it comes to the management, distribution, and utilization of resources and opportunities, will reach unparalled levels.

3.Violence is going to tripple in the country!
4. Guerilla warfare will become an option for many who feel cheated, frustrated and oppressed by an illegitimate regime.”

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_05_mentalacrobatics…Mental Acrobatics shares a report on two grassroots taking initiatives taking place which provide encouragement.

Nafsi Afrika is a team of acrobats formed in 2000. Its acrobats come mainly from the Kawangware and Kibera slums in Nairobi. These two areas have been rocked by the violence of the past few days. Later on today this team of acrobats will build a human pyramid of acrobats from different tribes in a show of unity................AND
REPACTED is a community based youth-to-youth organization. They are based in Nakuru. In the Free Area part of Nakuru most of the landlords are Kikuyu and most of the tenants are Luo they managed to get both groups together in a forum.
http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_08_shailja.gifShajila Patel writes an open letter to Samuel Kivuitu (Chair of the Electorial Commission of Kenya) accusing him of betraying the people of Kenya and pointing our the consequences of his failure to act honourably and truthfully in the election process.

“You betrayed us. Perhaps we'll never know when, or why, you made that decision. One rumor claims you were threatened with the execution of your entire family if you did not name Kibaki as presidential victor. When I heard it, I hoped it was true. Because at least then I could understand why you chose instead to plunge our country into civil war.................... Do you think of the 300,000 Kenyans displaced from their homes, their lives? Of the thousands still trapped in police stations, churches, any refuge they can find, across the country? Without food, water, toilets, blankets? Of fields ready for harvest, razed to the ground? Of granaries filled with rotting grain, because no one can get to them? Of the Nairobi slum residents of Kibera, Mathare, Huruma, Dandora, ringed by GSU and police, denied exit, or access to medical treatment and emergency relief, for the crime of being poor in Kenya?”

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_09_gukira.gifGukira confesses that despite watching the events unfold, reading and listening, writing has not been easy as he imagines that at least
“Somewhere, in this mess, someone I know, someone I love, someone I respect, has raised a hand in anger and frustration.”

Nonetheless he see the events of the past two weeks as either extraordinary or unexpected.

“It would be a mistake to view the events of the past week as entirely singular, extraordinary, or unexpected. Instead, they dramatize that for too long many Kenyans have been closing their eyes and blocking their ears to the ordinary suffering and frustration of fellow citizens. If what we have seen was an eruption, it was fed, in part, by our easy smiles and tolerance of inequality. Perhaps the sad truth is that we have all been living in a horror movie and we just awoke to that fact..................Unlike most horror movies, which end in total destruction or in some kind of redemption, the way ahead for us is not as scripted. It’s clear that we cannot simply assume we share the same values. Instead, we must cultivate shared values. We cannot rely on our leaders to heal our wounds. Instead, we must take responsibility for wounding each other. We can no longer live within purely ethnic enclaves. Instead, we must begin to bridge cultural and geographic differences.”

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_10_hokmah.gifAfrican Rhetoric is critical of the claim by many Kenyans and observers that both Mawi Kibaki and Raila Odinga are equally responsible for the post election violence.

“The problem, though, is that such a claim is not accurate. It is not true that Kibaki and Raila are to blame in equal measure for Kenya’s current predicament. It shouldn’t need saying that Kibaki stole the election; that the violence that erupted is a reaction to a coup. Attempts to bracket Kibaki’s wrongdoing in the name of focusing on ending the violence simply echoes Kibaki’s own vacuous talking point that he will only engage in dialogue once there is peace. It just so happens, though, that the violence stems from a dispute which must be resolved in order to bring about peace. Moreover, Kibaki and Raila do not occupy symmetrical positions of power. Kibaki, having seized the presidency, has the entire military-police apparatus at his command. He has far more resources, albeit illegitimately expropriated, and far more direct command over his forces than Raila does over the crazed mobs carrying out the ethnic cleansing of Kikuyus. A case in point: Kibaki’s internal security minister, John “Rasputin” Michuki, has converted Kisumu into a human abbatoir.”
Diary of a Mad Kenyan Woman

http://www.pambazuka.org/images/articles/335/blogs_11_madkenyanwoman.gifDiary of a Mad Kenyan Woman posts a daming essay on the election fraud, violence and those wishing to maintain the “feudal principlality of Kikuyustan”.

“How have we produced this population of Kenyans so estranged, so alienated from a sense of collective hope and a progressive trajectory that they are willing to burn to the ground this national edifice we call our home? I begin to suspect that it might have something to do with the ways in which we treat our people as if they are disposable nappies....first we crap all over them and then we throw them away. Or, first we work them up with visions and dreams of a utopia denied them only by the holding of office by the ‘the other side’ then we slyly make insinuations of how much easier life would be without ‘them’ and then we give them a little nudge and say “oh look, there goes one of them now. And who left this panga lying about in the open like that, all nice and shiny and sharp?”

And then we exclaim in shocked horror: oh goodness, me! However could this have happened? Oh please, please, well, gracious me, whatever shall we do?

On the other hand, whatever can Kikuyus think we are about, saying complacently that “we” won the election when even Europeans who can count are quite able to figure out the implications of votes which add up to fifty thousand and are transmuted into seventy thousand by some mysterious Kikuyu alchemy? It boggles the mind, the sheer bare-faced effrontery of fraud meant to thwart the popular will and carried out in naked defiance of international observers and Kenyan media. We may not have universal education yet, but a good number of Kenyans can count for themselves with a fair degree of confidence in their own tallies. What on earth do the people of Central Province mean, dancing about in the streets like that with joy, when it is evident to anyone who believes in this country that uchawi numbers are self-evidently not a cause for celebration? There’s hubris, and then there’s Central Province. I am fairly sure that it didn’t help matters. No one has won here, folks. We are all our own victims and our own oppressors—and some of us are guiltier than others.”

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* Sokari Ekine is author of Black Looks blog [www.blacklooks.org">

* Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

Dearest friends and family,

We greet you with hopes for peace in the New Year. As you have probably heard,
there is much unrest in Kenya following the national elections on Dec. 27. We
are fine and are staying in Lamu, a small island off the northern coast of
Kenya, just south of Somalia. This is a very peaceful place and a small town
where everyone knows each other

We are not sure what news you are getting about Kenya right now, but we know
that many of you have been afraid for us. We thank you for your concern and
your prayers of peace and protection.

On Dec. 27, Kenyans went to the polls. The election itself was mostly peaceful
although some people complained that they could not vote and were told they were
not registered. There was some violence at some polling stations, and there were
some election workers who protested that they were not paid enough. Raila
himself went to vote in his district of Langata/Kibera, and found that his name
was not even printed on the ballot! Election observers from the European Union,
the U.S., and other countries were deployed throughout the country, and they
have reported widespread problems with the way the election was conducted and
how the votes were counted.

It appears that the presidential election may have been rigged, since it took almost four days for the election results to be counted and declared. The elections had been decentralized with individual polling stations in charge of counting the votes from their constituencies. Although the votes were counted locally, they were then sent to the Kenyatta International Conference Centre (KICC) in Nairobi, where the Electoral Commission of Kenya was meeting.

As a result, there has been violence, looting, and killing in some parts of Kenya – especially in the Western Province near Kisumu and around Nairobi and Mombasa. These are large cities and the violence has mostly been centered around the cities. We have been communicating with the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi and with friends in the cities who have reported widespread fighting, killing, rapes, looting and burning of stores and houses. The worst situation was a church that was burned with dozens of women and children trapped inside who were seeking refuge. There have been over 300 reported deaths so far, and over 150,000 internally displaced refugees.

On Jan. 2, we heard that Nairobi and Mombasa had cooled down, and that the General Service Unit (GSU military police) and other police were heavily deployed throughout the cities. Shops had opened again in the cities and it seemed that things were returning to normal. However, Raila called for one million people to come to an ODM rally to be held at Uhuru Park in Nairobi, the large central park next to downtown, on Jan. 3 (today). Kibaki banned the rally and called for heavy police deployment throughout the city. This morning we have heard that the rally is taking place and a large crowd is moving from Uhuru Park to Kibera and Langata, Raila’s home constituency. Police have been deployed heavily throughout the city. Kibera is the largest slum outside of Nairobi and has been the center of much of the violence so far. We are praying that the rally will be peaceful and that Raila will ask his supporters to protest without violence. However, the situation is very tense and it might escalate again after today’s rally.

Do not worry about us – we are safe here in Lamu and we will be careful about waiting until it is safe elsewhere before traveling from here. The only concern here is that we are very remote, and that the supplies to the island come from the other cities on buses and boats. Since there is an oil shortage and a ban on traveling in the cities, there are few supplies coming to the island now.

* Cat Cutcher is a PHD student at Ohio University currently in Kenya on a Fulbright scholarship. This is an edited version of the full letter.

I read your comments on the Kenyan elections with great interest. While acknowledging that the Kenyan electorate has indeed lost the elections (see I would like to point out that we should have seen the post-election violence coming. After all, ODM never lost an opportunity to state that the elections would be rigged - it was a psychological game that heightened people's fears and anxieties so much so that even if Kibaki had won with a landslide, they would still have cried foul. I do not agree with your sentiments that since majority of the PNU ministers were floored, it is an indication that Kibaki was unpopular. I think for the first time, voters opted to stay away from the 3-piece style; the message some of us were sending was: You may be in PNU but you have not delivered as an MP but we believe Kibaki could do better with a new crop of MPs.

As I look at the line-up of MPs Kenyans have voted into parliament my heart weeps for the citizens. What nation turns a blind eye and votes in remnants of a dictatorial corrupt regime? I cannot believe that the ODM euphoria has brought in men and women who have corruption scandals firmly tied around their necks? So will we ever get justice for the crimes committed against us? And to see some of them give rhetoric speeches on justice is a mockery of our intelligence!

On the other hand, I think it is time we put lots of pressure on Kibaki to deliver on issues that are crucial for the Kenyan citizen. I think it's high time civil society (I wonder if we are still relevant at this rate considering that most of us have been compromised) began to speak with a loud voice on socio-political and economic issues affecting the Kenyan populace. As a young girl growing up, I knew that there were courageous men and women who never lost an opportunity to stand for the rights of the people. Slowly, the voice of justice has died over the years, and what we have as civil society in Kenya are men and women eyeing the political seats too and waiting to oil their pockets with hefty salary perks. The role of religious instituions cannot be under-estimated in the cause for justice. Religious institutions in my opinion, should be impartial, keeping a keen eye on the going-ons in society and providing a critical analysis of the happenings. They should be able to challenge injustice at all levels and ensure that the citizens' rights are prioritized at all costs. I have been disheartened to see religious leaders routing for particular candidates or political parties - how then can one provide impartial criticism when the individual or party disregards the rule of law or disrespects the rights of the common man? The media in Kenya has in some ways been irresponsible, airing politicians' irresponsible utterances and I don't think they were aware of the potential harm of their "freedom" to give every politician the space to abuse and call one another names. The chickens have indeed come home to roost. I honestly believe the media in this country needs to re-define themselves into a professional unit and for once, let news be devoid of name-calling and tribal alignments and assessments.

We need a paradigm shift in this country. As Kenyans descend on one another and kill one another, the politicians to whom they owe allegiance retreat in the safety of their homes and the comfort of their families. Is there any politician who really cares? In my opinion, none. Let us not lay blame totally on the state forces; it is clear in some regions that people had been incited to ensure that those belonging to a particular ethnic tribe should be annihilated or vacated. Could somebody please explain why Kikuyu businesses in Western Kenya were targetted? The youth in Kenya should also be motivated to think independently and it is high time each young man/woman realized that no politician will put a plate of food or salary on their tables. A successful society is made up of people who are able to exploit the existing socio-political and economic space in order to better not only their lives, but also the lives of the communities around them.

As we all wait for peace to be restored in this nation, it is my sincere prayer that we will learn from our errors. Aside from politicians, the civil society, religious insititutions and the media have a crucial role to play in ensuring that the unity we have enjoyed as a nation is restored and sustained.

Thank you for your concern and for your asurance that you are with us in this very difficult moment in the history of our nation. I am fine, we are fine though affected in one way or the other.

A country we once loved with a passion is now going up in flames in the post election violence. Hundreds ofd innocent lives have been lost, thousand injured and many more thousand have been internally displaced. Not to mention that porperties worth billions have have been vandalized and normal business operations interfered with. No one is spared in what has turned out to be teh nucleus of genocide. The most affected parts are the urban slums like korogocho (where I live) and the rural areas.

Our country is on fire and it is bleeding profusely because of the accusations that the incumbent president rigged the elections at the tallying centre. We are now paying heavily because some of our leaders disrespected justice and democracy. we have never been so divided as a country.

The uncertetinity grip our country is unbelievable. We live a day at time and every second counts. Gun shots, tear gas, razing of houses, massacres and all sorts of violences are slowly but steadily becoming teh norm. A country once regarded as an island of peace has become a turmoil of chaos.

Though the situation is quite appaling i still remain optimistic though cautiously. keep in touch and forever let us respect justice that is if we want peace. That is the greatest lesson we have learnt from the debacle...

We are at pains and we ask who will save our country?

We, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) wish to question the constitutional legitimacy and legal basis of the Police Commissioner, Major General Hussein's decree barring anyone from holding political rallies after the just concluded general elections.

We have learned from media reports that the Police Commissioner issued this decree before the just-concluded elections. The Government spokesperson has subsequently reinforced these orders by repeatedly making this announcement in the media.

We wish to state here that these orders are illegal, and violate the fundamental freedoms of association, freedom of movement and freedom of expression, guaranteed in both the Constitution of Kenya and international instruments which Kenya is signatory to. In any case, if all public gatherings have been bannned, how will the elected members of Parliament appeal to their constituents to stop the violence?

We understand the Police Commissioner may be concerned about the state of security in the country. However, to issue such orders and decrees not only contravene the law, but only serve to aggravate the situation further.

Rather than arbitrarily ban the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Rally scheduled for Thursday 3rd January 2008, we appeal to the Police Commissioner to seek assurance and commitment from the convenors of the rally that their supporters will maintain peace and order during the rally. We also appeal to the Police and security agents to provide adequate security during the rally.

The National Commission has learnd that in the interest of security, the Government has ordered curfews in Kibera, Migori, Mathare, Kisumu and Eldoret. Whereas this is provided by law in tense security situations, the Police Commissioner should publicly make an announcement to this effect in order to bring this to the notice of all persons affected.

Further, the curfews should be conducted in a humane manner that allows the persons affected to access food and other social amenities.

We also appeal to the police and security agents to handle the situation with utmost caution, while ensuring the security of all without taking sides.

* Maina Kiai is Chair of the Kenya National Commission for Human Rights

* Please send comments to or comment online at http://www.pambazuka.org/

It is now widely acknowledged that the electoral process that led to the swearing-in of Hon. Mwai Kibaki was heavily flawed and devoid of credibility.

We, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNHCR), artists, and civil society groups in Kenya, believe that this flawed process precipitated the wave of brutal violence and senseless destruction of property sweeping parts of the country.

We are concerned that the violence seems targetted at innocent Kenyans from particular communities believed to be sympathetic to a particular party. Everyone has a right to vote for whomever they wish. Wherease we understand the disappointment, frustration and anger Kenyans feel at being disenfranchised, their anger needs to be channnelled responsibly, and without resort to violence.

The Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) handled the elections tallying process irresponsibly. ECK is squarely culpable for the crisis in the country, through its intransigence, careless statements, incompetence and lack of accountability.

The ECK had the opportunity to initiate dialogue between various stakeholders to salvage the situation. Despite pleas from credible national and international observers, and evidence presented to verify claims of rigging, among other electoral malpractices, ECK commissioners chose not to engage in this prudent course of action.

We express our disappointment and deep concern that despite every gain made in expanding democratic space in Kenya, a country governed by the rule of law, the former Minister for Internal Security, John Michuki, banned the press from live broadcasts. We question the constitutional legitimacy and legal basis of Mr. Michuki's decree. From which statute or legal instrument does he draw his powers to ban the media in this manner, considering that the president has yet to constitute a Government, and, therefore a cabinet?

Furthermore, such a decree contravenes accepted international standards that guarantee freedom of expression and access to information, both fundamental rights. By muzzling the media, a key source of information to the public, the Government is encouraging rumors, innuendo, hearsay and suspicion, in an already polarized country.

We note Mwai Kibaki's earlier gesture calling on Kenyans to reconcile. Reconciliation can only be genuine if there is truth. We urge that:

The ECK discloses to the public the full presidential tally results, to be compared to results documented by national and international observers
The Government lift the media ban prohibiting the media from live coverage in Kenya.

Those with information on election fraud or irregularities be offered platforms to make such information public, without threat of intimidation. In this regard, whistleblowers may contact:
Hotline number: 0728 606582
Send verifiable information by email to:

lochiel AT knchr.org
linakoth9 AT yahoo.com
lkabiru AT khrc.or.ke

We appeal to the international community to call for credible verification of the results before endorsing them. We note the EU observer mission has raised serious concerns about the reliability and credibility of the elections tallying process.

We appeal to the police and security agencies to ensure their responses are humane, measured, and proportional to the level of threat. We call on them to handle the situation with utmost caution, while ensuring the security of all without taking sides.

Signed:

Maina Kiai, Chair, KNCHR
Gladwell Otieno, AFRICOG
Mugambi Kiai, OSIEA
Betty Kaari Murungi, Vice-Chair, KHRC
Njeri Kabebeberi, CMD
David Ndii, KLI
Haruon Ndubi, Haki Focus
Zahid Rajan, Awaaz
Muthoni Wanyeki, KHRC
Shailja Patel

To foster peace, diplomacy must promote justice

Thursday, January 3, 2008 (Washington, DC) – In light of the serious human rights violations and challenges to stable governance Kenya has experienced in the past week, Africa Action calls for an immediate and comprehensive recount of presidential ballots supervised by international election monitors, and an end to the media broadcast ban. The clumsy series of contradictory remarks on the election made so far by U.S. officials have not been helpful in resolving the crisis and have revealed underlying U.S. interests. The U.S. must provide new coherent leadership to drive international pressure on rival candidates Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga to adhere to the democratic process peacefully and put a stop to the violence. The international community must base its response to the situation on the voices of the Kenyan people and concentrate on addressing not only the immediate political crisis but also deeper issues of social, political and economic justice. U.S.-Kenya policy should be people-centered and truly committed to robust democratic processes rather than defined by a narrow agenda of the “war on terror” and international business interests.

The ugly scenes of violence and chaos that have emerged following Kenya’s disputed presidential polls are symptoms of the greater issues of poverty and socioeconomic inequality. Western observers have held up Kenya as an economic dynamo for its high growth rates and macroeconomic stability without considering who benefits from this development. Despite vigorous growth rates of between five and seven percent over the past three years, Kenya is a country marked by disparity. With a per capita income of just $540 and a current ranking of 145 out of 177 in the United Nations’ Human Development Index, poverty is widespread. Some strides towards economic justice have been made in recent years. Notably, as president, Kibaki succeeded in eliminating primary school fees. However, the volatility around this election is testament to the fact that many Kenyans are still frustrated by poverty and a small elite holds the majority of their country’s vaunted wealth.

Kenya’s 2002 elections generated a powerful sense of optimism among the population that reflected a deep popular commitment to democratic ideals and a new future free of corruption. It is disappointing that these hopes have not materialized. This challenge should galvanize the U.S. and the international community to support this young democracy as it struggles to achieve its vision of a truly representative and responsive government. The African Union is playing a critical role as a rapid responder to help mediate the political crisis. However, U.S. leadership and sustained diplomatic pressure from the entire international community is essential to protecting human rights in Kenya and to a successful mediation between parties that results in a transparent legal solution to the dispute.

Much has been made of the ethnic dimensions of the conflict, but the bottom line is that power hungry politicians can manipulate ethnic differences to promote their own interests with dangerous consequences in the absence of social and economic justice. African nations, like countries worldwide, rely on robust democratic processes to mitigate such conflict. This involves transparent electoral machinery but also involves promoting governance and economic policies that serve all citizens and do not marginalize any groups. Both parties in the conflict have used the phrase genocide to characterize their rivals’ behavior. Africa Action urges leaders on all sides to avoide using inflammatory language that may incite further violence. At the same time, the international community must be vigilant for signs of widespread ethnic cleansing or even emerging genocide and be prepared to intervene if necessary to prevent such crimes against humanity from taking place.

The consequences of an international failure to support Kenya’s democracy during this crisis would be grim, particularly in terms of regional stability. For years, Kenya has been an anchor of stability in a region challenged by conflict. Kenya has hosted peace talks – such as those that led to Sudan’s 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) – and absorbed refugees from neighboring war-torn nations. While a step backwards for this fledgling democracy would hardly reflect on the political fortunes of the whole continent, it would add to the challenges faced by the already tenuous Horn and East Africa. Therefore, the U.S. must lead the international community in a vigorous diplomatic response to defuse current tensions. The first steps to push for are a fully transparent recount of all votes and the lifting of all restrictions on independent media.

The Kenya presidential elections of December 2007 are potentially the most damaging episode to national unity since the assassination of Tom Mboya in July 1969. Both the murder of Tom Mboya and the management of the recent presidential elections are widely interpreted as an attempt to ethnically monopolise the presidency of the country. Both Mboya’s assassination and the latest elections are seen as historic blows to national stability and major setbacks to the process of democratization. Both Mboya’s murder and the 2007 elections unleashed widespread rioting and looting and made national institutions significantly more fragile than they were before.

It is therefore imperative that Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga enter into urgent negotiations to find a solution to this painful impasse, and to help the process of national healing.

The ideal solution would be to agree to a recounting of votes in the most controversial of the provincial results for the presidency, and for both Kibaki and Odinga to commit themselves to respect the outcome of the recounting.

Another possible solution would be for the African Union to appoint an independent commission of enquiry into the management of the presidential election, and make recommendations. One possible recommendation would conceivably be to accept the parliamentary results, which had, by most estimates, been transparent and credible. But there might be new internationally supervised presidential elections with the three main candidates on the new ballot.

The third option is probably the easiest to accomplish. The new parliament should be sworn in, and called into session. Its first task should be to consider a constitutional amendment creating the post of Prime Minister answerable to Parliament and not to the Chief Executive (the President). If the constitutional amendment is passed, parliament would then vote for the first Prime Minister. Considering the balance of political parties voted into the new parliament, the new Prime Minister is almost bound to be the Honorable Raila Odinga.

Kenya would thereby become something approximating the fifth republic of France with both an executive President accountable to the people, directly, and an executive Prime Minister accountable to the people’s legislative representatives, Parliament. As in the case of the French Republic, the President (Mwai Kibaki) and the Prime Minister (Raila Odinga) would have to find ways of working together in the interest of the people of Kenya.

Who would appoint the members of the cabinet- the President or the Prime Minister? The Foreign Minister and the Minister of Defense could be the prereagative of the Head of State (Kibaki) to appoint. But the Minister of Internal Security and almost all other ministries would be appointed by the Prime Minister (Raila Odinga).

The precise division of labor and division of powers between the new Prime Minister would have to be negotiated prior to the constitutional amendment by new Parliament.

Later in the session of the new parliament there may be need to re-examine the whole constitution of Kenya in the light of problems which Kenya has had to face since the last constitutional referendum. Should we re-examine once again the Maboma Draft constructed by the Ghai Commission? Only the new parliament, in consultation with the new President, can decide whether to have a new constitutional referendum.

* Ali Mazrui is Director, Institute of Global Cultural Studies, Albert Schweitzer Professor in the Humanities, Binghamton University, State University of New York at Binghamton, New York, USA and Chancellor, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Thika and Nairobi Kenya

* Please send comments to or comment online at http://www.pambazuka.org/

Inside looking out, snow is falling and I am thinking how
happy we once were, when promises and dreams came
easy and how when we, lovers covered only by a warm

Eldoret night, your slender hand waved a prophecy
- a shooting star and you said, "when the time comes, we
shall name our first child, Kenya" and how I laughed

and said "yes our child then shall be country and human"
and we held hands, rough and toughened by shelling
castor seeds. My dear, when did our clasped hands

become heavy chains and anchors holding us to the mines
and diamond and oil fields? Our hands roughened by love
and play, these same hands – when did they learn to grip

a machete or a gun to spit hate? And this earth that drinks
our blood like a hungry child, this earth that we have
scorched to cinders - when we are done eating it, how

much of it will be left for Kenya? My dear, our child
is born, is dying. Tomorrow the child will be dead.

UW-Madison, Jan. 3rd, 2007
Commissioned by The World Today – BBC News

National elections were held in Kenya on December 27, 2007; the results of the Presidential election were announced three days later. Within minutes of the announcement that Mwai Kibaki had emerged as the winner, there were spontaneous acts of opposition to the government in all parts of the country. The opposition was especially intense among the jobless youths who had voted overwhelmingly for change. A ruling clique that had stolen billions of dollars in a period of five years had stolen the elections. This was the verdict of the poor. However, this verdict was obscured by ethnic alienation and the constant refrain by local and foreign intellectuals that the crisis and killings emanated from deep ‘tribal’ hostilities. This tribal narrative was intensified after the burning and killings of innocent civilians in a church, in Eldoret, in the Rift Valley region of Kenya. But while these killings had all of the hallmarks of the genocidal violence of Rwanda and Burundi, more importantly, they heightened the need for Kenyan society to step back from the brink of all out war. Violence and killings provided a feedback loop that threatened to engulf even the political leaders of the society.

This analysis argues that the calls for peace and reconciliation by the political and religious leaders will remain hollow until there are efforts to break from the recursive processes of looting, extra judicial killings, rape and violation of women, and general low respect for African lives.

This short commentary on the elections and the aftermath seeks to introduce a unified emancipatory approach: liberating humanity from the mechanical, competitive, and individualistic constraints of western philosophy, and re-unifying Kenyans with each other, the Earth, and spirituality. This analysis draws from fractal theory and seeks to place Africans as human beings at the center of the analysis. Fractal theory is founded on aspects of the African knowledge system and breaks the old tribal narratives that refer to Africans as sub humans needing Civilization, Christianity and Commerce.
Those who condemn the post-election violence in Kenya have failed to condemn the traditions of killings and economic terrorism in Kenya. It should be stated clearly that using African women as guinea pigs for western pharmaceuticals is just as outrageous as burning innocent women and children in churches. Rape and violation of women, and exploitation of the poor and of jobless youth have been overlooked by the commentators who focus on one component of the matrix of exploitation in Kenya -- ethnicity.

In tandem with much of the current discourse on fractal theory, this commentary is addressed to progressive intellectuals from Kenya and calls for a revolutionary paradigmatic transformation- one that is intrinsic to African knowledge systems and can be witnessed in practice in the everyday activities of African life. Revolutionary transformations are necessary to break from the processes that have been unleashed in Kenya and East Africa since British colonialism and the British Gulag. This break requires revolutionary ideas in Kenya, along with revolutionary leaders and new forms of political organization. Thus far, neo-liberal capitalism and neo-liberal democratic organizations, along with the focus on party organization have created leaders who organize for political power. These leaders are not even concerned about forming lasting political parties. Far more profound transformations are required in Kenya, beyond the winning of elections. However, until new ideas and new leaders emerge, the current struggles will serve to educate the poor on the limitations of the old politics and ethnic alliances that privilege sections of the Kenyan capitalist class.

The analysis is presented as a drama of three acts. The first act was played out in the form of the election campaign. The second act involved the drama after the announcement of the results and the violent reactions from all sections of the society. The third act of this drama continues to unfold with the call for a fractal analysis that will place revolutionary transformation as the central question on the political agenda in Kenya and East Africa.

Act One – The Struggles over the election and the campaign for the Presidency.

The Scene: Kenya had been the epi- center of imperial domination in East Africa from the period of British colonialism. Caroline Elkins in the book, Britain’s Gulag, has documented for posterity the extreme violence and murders bequeathed to the Kenyan political culture by the British government. At independence in December 1963, Britain handed over power to people who, in essence, agreed to act as junior partners with British capitalism in Eastern and Central Africa. This partnership included an acceptance by the ruling class in Kenya of the western European forms of land ownership that stated that Africans had to be modernized from their “tribal” and “backward” ways. For forty years, Kenya was presented as a success story where a parasitic middle class and a thriving Nairobi Stock Exchange (composed of foreign capital) sought to prove that capitalism could take root in Africa.

Act 1 Scene Two of this drama took the form of a campaign for the tenth Parliament of Kenya. The drama of the struggle for change in Kenya was played out before the world in the form of an electoral struggle that gripped the society for many months. At the end of Scene Two one of the principal props of this drama – the local media - reported that the results were like a “blood bath.” The headline screamed “ energized voters sweep out Vice President, Cabinet Ministers and seasoned politicians as wind of change blows across the country.” But the newspapers were not yet aware of the implications of using language like “blood bath” in their headlines. Every one awaited the final results of the news of who would be President. The results were being delayed while the votes were being cooked. As news of the parliamentary routing of the incumbent President and his allies in the Party of National Unity (PNU) splashed on the streets, on the screens and on text messages while the principal actors and actresses of the drama, the people of Kenya, sought spontaneous actions to ensure that they were not silenced by the power brokers who had placed themselves at the head of the movement for change. These central actors and actresses (wananchi) had enthusiastically participated in the election campaign articulating their demand for peace, reconstruction and transformation of Kenyan society.

By the time of the third scene of this drama, those from the den of thieves around the incumbent Mwai Kibaki sought to silence the media. In order for this scene to be played out without an audience, international observers and the media (both national and international) were ejected from Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) election center at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre. The Chairperson of the ECK went to a small room and announced the results of the elections naming Mwai Kibaki as the winner of the election. Three days later, the same chairperson of the ECK said in the media that he was not sure if Kibaki won the elections.

Earlier in the drama Raila Odinga’s team of regional barons and aspiring capitalists argued that the true results of the elections showed that Raila Odinga had been chosen by the majority of the main players to be the leading man on the Kenyan stage. How was it possible for his Movement to win over one hundred seats in the Parliament (when Kibaki’s den of thieves had won less than thirty parliamentary seats) and still lose the Presidency? Local and foreign observers cried foul. The elections had been rigged. Ballot boxes had been stuffed. Results were being announced that did not correspond to the votes from the constituencies. The integrity of the process was flawed. These voices were soon drowned out by the might and power of those with strategic control over the military and media sections of the performance. Neo-liberal politics include rigging, so that the international observers used ‘measured’ language of “irregularities,” “anomalies” and “weighty issues” to conceal the reality of outright theft. Raila Odinga termed the process a “civilian coup.” But international capital became confused, because, after all the precedent of election rigging in Florida,U.S.A in 2000 had given the green light to electoral fraud internationally.

The Swearing in of President Kibaki

Act One Scene Three of this drama was performed within the guarded confines of State House where parastatal executives, mostly defeated cabinet members and a small section of the media were invited. In this scene, Mwai Kibaki was sworn in as the Third President of the Republic of Kenya. The stage and setting of this scene was markedly different from the previous swearing in at the Uhuru Park (in Nairobi) where an enthusiastic audience had cheered on the President on December 30, 2002. The 2007 swearing in scene had to be played out without the audience because the principal actors and actresses did not endorse this new act. Minutes after the announcement of the victory of Kibaki, there were spontaneous demonstrations all over the country, especially the urban areas. Popular outrage at the theft of the elections brought violence and the killings of innocent civilians in Kakamega, Kisumu, Mombassa, Nairobi, Nakuru and other centers. The police killed innocent demonstrators as the foreign media portrayed the demonstrations in ethnic terms. The gendered, class and ethnic dimensions of the opposition to Kibaki began to be played out in the poor communities that were called slums, but the media focused on one dimension, the ethnic alienation of the poor and exploited.

Hundreds of dead brought home the reality that the elections and vote counting were simply one site of struggle in the quest to break the old politics of exploitation and dehumanization in Kenya. However, because so much of the old politics of exploitation had been masked by the politicization of ethnicity, poor members of the Kikuyu nationality were targeted in some communities, with the killings in Eldoret bringing home the long traditions of ethnic cleaning that had been going on in this region during the Moi regime. The same media neglected to report that poor Kalenjin also torched the home of former President Arap Moi.

Would there be a break from this recursive process of killing of the poor?
Odinga and members of the Pentagon condemned the killings of members of a particular ethnic group but the anger was too deep for the youths to listen. Unfortunately, the ODM did not have structures to properly mobilize the youths away from looting.

Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic Movement

In order to avert the possible war that could emanate from this new act of the drama there was the need for fresh if not revolutionary ideas to harness the pent up energies of the people for change. The radicalization of Kenyan politics had merged with the anti- globalization forces internationally to the point where in 2007 Kenya hosted the World Social Forum. The radical demands of the Bamako appeal of the Africa Social Forum (for profound social, economic and gender transformations in Africa) could not be carried forward by the old Non Governmental Organization elements allied with international NGO’s from Western Europe. What the World Social Forum had demonstrated was the reality that new revolutionary ideas with new revolutionary forms of organization were needed to realize the goals and aspirations and appeal of the Africa social forum. Raila Odinga and his group of regional ethnic barons had tapped into the radical sentiments of the youth all across the ethnic divisions. Calling his team, the Pentagon, Odinga mobilized the popular discourses about youth, women and disabled to speak about ‘poverty eradication’ and “corruption.”

Absent from the platform of the Orange Democratic Movement was a clear program for reconstruction and transformation. Raila Odinga had been a major political actor on the Kenyan stage for four decades. He had participated in every major political party and formation since his father, Odinga Odinga had emerged as the opponent of the Kenyan form of neo-colonialism. The 2007 elections exposed the reality that there were no real political parties in Kenya. Leaders on all sides were not interested in building a lasting movement for change. They were interested in parties as electoral vehicles to capture state power. There were more than 300 parties registered in Kenya and over 117 participated in the elections in December 2007.

Local and international writers who earlier had been voices for the poor enthusiastically supported the enactment of the first scene of the drama (the election and voting). Some of these writers moaned and groaned that the script had been changed when those who controlled the state machinery unleashed violence against the poor. In order to unleash state violence against the poor, the Minister of Internal Affairs banned the broadcast of live images. The state also toyed with the idea of banning SMS messaging in Kenya. But
Kenyans simply tuned in to the international media to confirm what they knew, that the recursive processes of killings and revenge were spiraling out of control.

Without enacting an official state of emergency (in the fear of further hurting the tourist industry) the majority of poor Kenyans lived under curfew-like conditions as the military, the police, and General Service Units were deployed all over the country and new forms of censorship were implemented. The political leadership that stole the elections had to be careful with the use of the police, military and the intelligence services in so far as the divisions within the security forces challenged the authority of those who stole the elections. Raila Odinga sought to tap into this division of the coercive forces by calling a demonstration of a million Kenyans to oppose the stolen election results.

The International media and international capital

The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and other cultural voices of imperial power were from the outset one of the props of this drama. The British were particularly active because the interests of British capitalism were very much an important part of narrative of the drama. During Act 1 scenes two and three, this foreign prop had been condemning the “irregularities’” and “anomalies” of the drama and carried the press statements of the International Observers of the European Union and the Commonwealth. The head of the European Union observer mission issued a statement declaring that, “the Presidential poll lacks credibility and an independent audit should be instituted to rectify things.”

This clear statement led the US government to reverse its earlier recognition of Mwai Kibaki as the winner of the Presidential elections. There had been concern in Washington over the future of Kenya in so far as the US authorities sought to mobilize Kenyans in the war against terrorism. During the period of Kibaki, Kenyan citizens were shipped out of the country to be tried as terrorists under the US policy of kidnapping, called rendition. The ODM signed a memorandum of understanding with the Islamic community during the election campaign and members of the ODM condemned the rendering of Kenyan citizens by the government. It was argued that if these citizens acted contrary to Kenyan law, they should be tried under Kenyan law.

The propaganda war had been virulent and since Raila Odinga held the moral and political high ground, sections of the international media began to retreat from endorsement of the electoral coup. However, the occupation of the moral high ground was shaky. Would the government and opposition be more concerned with the lives of the poor than with political power?

In the face of the absence of resolute moral leadership to condemn these killings, the international media had a field day portraying the struggles for democracy in Kenya as primitive “tribal” violence.

Act Two – Stalemate and brinkmanship in politics

Raila Odinga and his team called the Pentagon had entered the drama seeking to play on the terms of those who had seized power from the time of colonialism. The very naming of his team as the ‘Pentagon’ had shown an insensitivity to the international revulsion against military symbols. The five leaders of the Pentagon were, (i) Vice Presidential running mate M Mudavadi, (ii) Charity Ngilu, (iii) William Ruto, (iv) Bilal Najib and (v) Joseph Nyagah. These regional ethnic barons had emerged from multiple political formations and many had family and business linkages with capitalists inside and outside of the government. During the campaign these regional leaders had campaigned on a pledge to devolve power from central government. The poor believed this would bring power closer to the village and communities so that health care facilities, water supply systems, road and pathways in the villages, education, sanitation and other services could be delivered so that the conditions of exploitation are ameliorated. These localized services were interpreted by various local communities as job creation avenues for the jobless youths. For the regional barons, the devolution debate was carried out to ensure easier access to the treasury. The word ‘majimbo’ re- emerged in the political vocabulary of Kenya to reignite the memory of the alliance between the ‘home guards’ and settlers at the dawn of independence.

Youths all across Kenya had transcended the ethnic identification and wanted real change in the quality of life in the society.

Entering the drama without a real party and without a real organ to bring the majority of the actors and actresses to the center of the drama, it was easy for the team around Mwai Kibaki to stall so that the spontaneous anger would peter out. Would the Orange Democratic Revolution learn the lessons of popular power in the streets of the Ukraine Orange Revolution and shake the old power with new bases of alternative power? This provided the setting for the central aspect of the drama, the stand off between the forces of orange and the forces of the defeated power. Kibaki came across as an imprisoned leader, surrounded by politicians and financiers who argued that Kibaki must enter any negotiation from a position of strength. Odinga countered that negotiations could only begin when Kibaki accepted that the elections had been stolen. The hardening of positions ratcheted up the tensions in the country as regionally countries such as Uganda, Rwanda and the Southern Sudan began to feel the effects of the shutdown of the transportation system in Kenya.

Mwai Kibaki and the neo-liberal regime in Kenya

Mwai Kibaki had been associated with the ruling class in Kenya for over fifty years. Starting his career as a representative of Shell Oil Company in Kampala, Uganda, Kibaki moved from an academic position at Makerere University to the top echelons of the independent government of Kenya after independence. In the book, The Reds and the Blacks, William Atwood, then-US ambassador, had identified Kibaki as one of the steady ‘reformers” who would guarantee the interests of foreign capital. Kibaki emerged as a stable force in the ruling circles serving both Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel Arap Moi as Minister of Finance. It was under the leadership of Kenyatta and Moi that the forms of theft by the ruling elements in Kenya were refined. Extra judicial killings and accidental deaths of prominent trade union leaders and politicians were papered over by the foreign press that labeled Kenya a ‘stable’ democracy.

Arap Moi and international capital.

After the death of Kenyatta in 1978, Daniel Arap Moi moved decisively to cement an alliance of foreign capitalists and local political careerists to loot the society and spread divisions and ethnic hatred among the poor and oppressed. British capitalism had been the dominant force in Kenya with British companies such as Unilever, Finlays, GSK, Vodafone, Barclays and Standard Bank becoming leading names on the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Britain had made a deal with the independence leaders and awarded a small sum to enhance this new class of African yeoman farmers to join the British settlers in the exploitation of Kenya and indeed, East Africa. Molo, in the Rift Valley (one of the constituencies at the center of the row over the rigged elections), represented one of the places where Kikuyu settlers had been relocated after independence.

Moi during his Presidency remained at the center of the alliance between British capitalists, Asian capitalists and Kikuyu entrepreneurs from Central Province. By the time of the electoral defeat of Moi in December 2002, the Moi family and cronies in the ruling party, Kenya African National Union (KANU) had become junior capitalists in the game of exploitation. It was under the leadership of Moi that imperialism used Kenya as a base to subvert African independence. A report commissioned by the Kibaki administration, (called the Kroll Report), had named Moi and his sons as billionaires with assets in banks in Britain, Switzerland, South Africa, Namibia, the Cayman Islands and Brunei. The 110-page report by the international risk consultancy Kroll alleged that relatives and associates of former President Moi siphoned off more than £1bn of government money. This documentation placed the Mois on a par with Africa's other great politicians-cum-looters such as Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire (now Democratic Republic of Congo) and Nigeria's Sani Abacha. The Kroll report of the levels of theft when presented to the Kibaki government was never acted on. The alliance between Moi and Kibaki forces became clearer during the election campaign when Moi and his sons fiercely campaigned for the re –election of President Kibaki. The sons of Moi were decisively defeated in the elections.

The documentation of the level of theft by Moi was exposed before the public in what to became known as the Goldenberg scandal. This scandal brought to the fore the alliance between Moi, KANU and Asian capitalists in Kenya. These capitalists had looted the country with such impunity that Kamlesh Mdami Pattni (an Asian capitalist named in the Goldenberg scandal) took over one party Kenda to contest the 2007 elections.

Prior to the 1992 multi-party struggles, Kibaki had sought to distance himself from this group of capitalists. These were the capitalists involved in settler agriculture, manufacturing, transport, services, old forms of banking, insurance, real estate, construction and engineering and the health and education sectors. These capitalists from inside and outside the political arena provided cover for looters all across Eastern Africa. In the Kenyan economy money from oil in the Sudan (especially Southern Sudan), commercial interests in Somalia, gold and diamond dealers from Rwanda, Burundi and the Eastern Congo circulated with the resources from the exploited Kenyan working poor so that in the past ten years there has been a growth of the Kenyan economy. Felicia Kabunga, wanted by the International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda (ICRT) for crimes of genocide in Rwanda was the kind of looter and money spinner who found safe haven among the money launderers in Kenya.

Kibaki and the rise of new capitalists.

Although Mwai Kbaki had campaigned on an anti-corruption ticket in 2002, his tenure as President of Kenya was marked by an explosion of new schemes for accumulation. The rise of the telecommunications, information technology and banking sectors boomed with new enterprises such as Equity Bank and a number of communications companies (Safaricom, Flashcom, Telecom etc) rivaling the old capitalists. The floating of new shares n the form on an Initial Public Offer (IPO) for the Company, Safarcom, became a central question in the election campaign in so far as those who got access to the shares at the time of the issuing of the IPO became instant millionaires.

The Kibaki government was in the main dominated by elements who formed a company called MEGA (a regrouping of the old Gema Gikuyu, Embu, Meru Association), and through Transcentury Corporation had elevated themselves to be the among the leading capitalists in Kenya. This group presented a program called Vision 2030 where Kenya would become the leading capitalist country in Africa, becoming the Singapore of Africa. Control of the governmental apparatus was crucial for Vision 2030.

Space does not allow for an elaboration of the individuals of this capitalist clique and their place in the interpenetrating directorates of the Nairobi Stock Exchange. What is significant is that the names of the capitalists and politicians of Trancentury figured in the scandal of corruption that rocked the government of Mai Kibaki. This was termed the Anglo-leasing scandal which involved awarding huge government contracts to bogus companies. One insider, John Githongo, exposed the scandal and repaired to Britain.

No money from the Anglo leasing scandal had been recovered before the elections and although European and US governments made noises about corruption there were no moves to repatriate the stolen wealth back to Kenya. These scandals were very much a part of the election campaign. Three of the four ministers who resigned after the Anglo Leasing scandal was exposed had been reinstated by Kibaki. These ministers along with twenty other ministers lost their parliamentary seats in the December 2007 elections.
The poor of Kenya had used the ballot to send a message to the capitalists in Kenya but those who stole billions of dollars from the Kenyan Treasury were not above stealing an election.

The real test in Kenyan politics was whether the team called the Pentagon was serious about changing the political culture of theft, looting and storing billions of dollars in foreign banks. The people of Kenya had voted for change. Was the Orange Democratic Movement a movement for change or a movement for political power? This was the outstanding question as the cast and the writers got ready for Act three of the drama of the struggle for democracy.

Act 3. A Revolutionary situation without revolutionary ideas and real revolutionaries.

Because the drama is being played out it is not possible to make a presentation of the last act of this drama. This is the act where the peoples of Kenya are torn between two traditions. These are the traditions of the freedom fighters for independence and the traditions of violence, looting and the low respect for African life. The youths of Kenya have been brought up in the period of the aftermath of the end of apartheid and the defeat of Mobutism. These youths have risen above the politicization of ethnicity and along with progressive women want to end the rape and violation of women. These youths have been heard to say that Kenya is in the midst of a liberation war.

While the consciousness of the youth may be high with the thought of a long term struggle, there are very few revolutionary leaders and a poverty of revolutionary ideas in Kenya. If anything, the poorer youths are being mobilized into counter-revolutionary violence where poor and oppressed people burn and kill each other. This was the lesson of the killings, burning and massacre in the Rift Valley. Counter-revolutionary violence of the Rwanda genocidal form lay just below the surface and the same politicians who gave refuge to genocidaires from Rwanda are not above fomenting genocidal violence among the poor. The media images of marauding youths with pangas provide the necessary imagery to represent to the world another version of African savagery. This same media will not prominently carry the news that poor peasants from the home area of Danieal Arap Moi burnt his house to the ground. The prospect of real class warfare in Kenya frightens both the government and the opposition so there is a delicate effort to manage the crisis so that the forms of capital accumulation can return to the business pages rather than the front pages.

Raila Odinga and the Orange Democratic movement are now caught between the aspirations of the regional capitalists of the ‘Pentagon’ and the demand for real change across Kenya. The post election mayhem is a clear demonstration that the ODM did not sufficiently engage their followers on new ideas transcending ethnicity and patriarchy. This demand for democratic change in Kenya will require new forms of organization beyond electoral politics and new ideas about the value of African lives. This requires a break with the European ideation systems that promote capitalism as democracy and genocide as progress.

* Horace Campbell is Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University

* Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

This brief list of useful links is provided to help our readers keep up to date.

LINKS FROM 3 JANUARY 2008
In this AllAfrica blog Brian Kennedy lists the wide range of those who now question the results of Kenya’s 2007 presidential election, including foreign governments, election monitoring missions, and the Electoral Commission of Kenya itself. He also refers to reports that the Kenyan police, who were deployed to guard the 36,000 polling stations across the country, kept records of the results and that their tally is said to differ from what the ECK announced:

The Economist has described the result as a meticulously planned ‘civil coup’, stating that the decision to return Mwai Kibaki to office was made not by the Kenyan people but by a group of hardline Kikuyu leaders. Although the report states that their instinct will now be to use the security services to reverse basic freedoms, ‘it is not clear that Kenya will stand for it’:

The ECK Chair, Samuel Kivuitu, has given details of the inconsistencies in the constituency tallies of the presidential votes, which include altered figures from certain constituencies and the improper submission of documentation:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200801030025.html

The leader of the Pan-African Movement Observers Mission, Stephen Othieno, also criticised the ECK at a press conference in Kampala. The Mission sent 41 observers to Kenya who were not permitted to observe the process in its entirety – specifically the final tally. Mr Othieno also criticised the limited time made available for verification of the voters’ register prior to polling day, and biased coverage by some media houses:

The Kenya Human Rights Commission has called on Archbishop Desmond Tutu, who arrived in Kenya on 3 January, to oversee a recount. Professor Makau Mutua, chair of the KHRC, appealed for calm, dialogue and statesmanship from Kenya’s political leaders:

The head of the Commonwealth Observer Group, Dr Ahmad Tejan Kabbah, has decided to stay on in Kenya to support mediation efforts. The Group’s departure statement on 2 January noted that ‘delays in the announcement of the results raised questions about the integrity of the final phase of the election process’:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200801030533.html

http://www.thecommonwealth.org/document/174034/kenya_elections_2007___departure_statement_by_the.htm

A group of business, religious and cultural leaders delivered an open letter to all three presidential candidates, calling for an independent and transparent review of the whole electoral process and its outcomes, as well as personal and collective leadership that delivers a swift conclusion to the crisis in the best interests of the country:
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Daudi Were writes in his blog of the shocking speed with which Kenya slid into violence. ‘The aim of this post is not to explore the issues around the issues but to highlight that there is a sophisticated and dedicated response to the crisis in our country’:
http://www.mentalacrobatics.com/think/

Moody Awori, the Vice-President, appealed for calm and stated that the government was willing to enter into dialogue with the ODM leadership. Raila Odinga reiterated his position that any dialogue must be based on acceptance that the elections were compromised:

The Kenya Red Cross Society estimates (3 January) that at least 100,000 people require immediate assistance in the northern Rift Valley alone. Confirmed country-wide statistics are not yet available. John Holmes, the UN’s Emergency Relief Coordinator, emphasised the responsibility of Kenya’s political leaders to protect the lives and livelihoods of innocent people, and deplored the recent increase in gender-based violence:

Newspaper reports from around the East African region illustrate the impact of the crisis in Kenya on its landlocked neighbours. Fuel prices in Uganda have soared due to the shortage of fuel and the actions of speculators; bus fares in Kampala have in some places doubled.
http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/opinions/Fuel_crisis_is_big_lesson_for_us.shtml
http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/news/155_fuel_tankers_on_the_way_to_Uganda_-_govt.shtml

Traders in Rwanda are concerned at both the shortage of fuel and the prospect of being unable to restock from the suppliers in Kenya on whom they rely:

LINKS FROM 2 JANUARY

Louise Arbour, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has called on the Kenyan government to abide by its international human rights obligations in responding to demonstrations and to allow journalists to carry out their work freely. She also emphasised the responsibility to use only peaceful means of protest:
http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/080102073900.kf169jow.html

A report from the Human Rights House Network describes the attack on the church near Eldoret in which at least 35 people were killed. Water and food for those displaced in churches and public buildings are running short, and travel in the area is highly dangerous:

The Regional UN Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) published police figures released on 1 January of 143 people killed across five Provinces (Rift Valley, Western, Nyanza, Nairobi, and Coast). It adds that these are confirmed cases and that the real number may be higher. The main obstacle to delivering assistance is the number of roadblocks set up by vigilante groups:

The Nation reported on 2 January that 16 people had been killed at the Coast, while violent incidents had occurred in Taveta, Diani and Kilifi Town:

Dr Dan Ojwang, a Kenyan academic based in South Africa, criticises media coverage of the crisis and argues that it has deeper and more complex roots. ‘Let the world know the truth’, he writes, ‘that members of almost all Kenyan ethnic communities are being killed and not just Kikuyu supporters of President Mwai Kibaki’s illegitimate government’.
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Political situation:

A report from the Human Rights House Network on 31 December, based on coverage in the Kenyan press as well as interviews with several human rights defenders in Nairobi, captures the breadth and severity of the political crisis, in terms of the heavy-handed security response, the infringement of media freedoms, and the prospect of an even more powerful presidency:
http://kenopalo.wordpress.com/2008/01/01/kenya-quickly-degenerating-into-an-african-statistic/

The BBC reported on 2 January the accusations being traded by both sides. Asked if he would urge his supporters to calm down, Raila Odinga reportedly refused to be asked ‘to give the Kenyan people an anaesthetic so that they can be raped’:

The Chair of the Electoral Commission of Kenya, Samuel Kivuitu, admitted on 1 January that he announced the results of the presidential election under pressure from some PNU and ODM-Kenya leaders. According to a report in the Standard, he said that ‘We are culprits as a Commission. We have to leave it to an independent group to investigate what actually went wrong’:

Francis Atwoli, the Secretary General of the umbrella workers’ union COTU, is quoted as saying that the crisis is politically instigated and thus can only be solved by political means. In the same press report the government’s spokesman, Alfred Mutua, states that the military has been deployed to various parts of the country ‘to assist in averting a humanitarian crisis’:
http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200801020003.html

The head of the Commonwealth’s election observer team in Kenya, former president Ahmad Tejan Kabbah of Sierra Leone, has now met all three leaders (Mwai Kibaki, Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka). Kenya’s Daily Nation reports that a joint statement may be imminent:

At the international level, the US and British foreign secretaries issued a joint statement on 2 January urging political compromise and noting the responsibility on all sides to maintain the political process:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/kenya/story/0,,2234121,00.html

On Thursday December 27th 2007, shortly after polling stations were closed, Kenya was hailed as having fulfilled an African dream – to have a free and fair closely contested democratic election. But less than 48 hours later it was clear that the dream of democracy could become a nightmare of ethnic violence. Most of the casualties so far have been the poor and the marginalized – and if things continue as they are, a bitter civil war fought along ethnic lines is certain. To say that what is at stake is the very future of Kenya is not an overstatement.

To answer the question of how the promise became a nightmare one must begin with very nature of democracy and how it has been functioning in Africa.

The first element to consider is that in the absence of strong democratic institutions (the three pillars of legislature, executive and judiciary), democracies in Africa are relying more and more on the goodwill of politicians: in this case, a nation is only as democratic as its politicians.

Added to this, African democracy is in real terms an expression of ethnic tensions. Instead of rolling back tribalism (I use the derisive term deliberately), African democracy serves it. One could say that all democracies have an element of this: in the West it generally goes under the euphemism of voter demographics. When Hilary Clinton is courting the white, black or Latino vote, she is in fact practicing what might, in other circumstances, be called tribal politics.

In the Kenyan presidential election, ethnic politics were a key factor in the close election results: the incumbent Mwai Kibaki, a Kikuyu, received very few votes in the Luo areas, while his Luo opponent, Raila Odinga, received only a very small percentage of the Kikuyu vote. In this bitterly contested election where ethnicity was the deciding factor, victory from either side was bound to spill into violence.

As a direct result of the above, questions of what true justice means and about the growing divide between haves and have-nots become lost to ethnicity. Raila is a flamboyant millionaire while Kibaki is as elite as you can get in Kenya. Lost in the fires of ethnicity is the simple fact that Kibaki and Raila have much more in common with each other than with their supporters. In this sense those engaged in the violence are, to put it bluntly, proxies in a war between two elite leaders.

Another element to consider is the extent to which the landscape of African politics has changed. We need to stop blanket condemnations of African leadership, and acknowledge that it varies and some leaders are better or worse than others. Kibaki, while not a Mandela is not a Moi or a Mobutu, or a Bokassa or an Idi Amin. By the same token the nature of opposition has changed. Since independence and the struggles against neo-colonial governments, opposition has been automatically understood as the legitimate voice of the people. But opposition no longer means the good guys. In many instances the opposition and the sitting government are practically the same as is indeed the case in Kenya. So while Raila is accusing Kibaki of vote-rigging, it could just as easily be Raila trying to rig and short-circuit the democratic process to favor himself. In other words we have no reason to take either of their claims to be true at face-value. In this impasse of two leaders intent on seizing power, respect for the democratic process couldn’t be more important.

Toward a solution, Kenyans should realize that something beautiful did happen during this election. Most of the big men of Kenyan politics were voted out of Parliament and hence out of office. Even the sons of former dictator Moi did not win seats in Parliament. There seemed to be a belief that voting was a way of talking back the Kenyan political elite, and that democracy could be made to work for the majority poor. This is the flame that we must not let die.

To nurture this flame, a recount of the votes in a transparent manner is necessary. This, no matter what one thinks of Raila or Kibaki, or whether one thinks the elections were fair or not, should be the meeting ground of all those concerned about the future, immediate and long term, of Kenya.

If the votes can be recounted in full transparency, this election will not then become the death of Kenyan democracy but rather a test along the way to a democracy with real content – the content of security, equality and justice for Kenya’s majority poor.

*Mukoma Wa Ngugi is co-editor of Pambazuka News. A version of this article first appeared at

*Please send comments to [email protected] or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

Desmond Tutu was absolutely right to fly into Kenya and throw his moral authority behind efforts to resolve the dramatic crisis that other outsiders are misjudging so badly. British foreign secretary David Miliband, US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, secretary general of the Commonwealth Don McKinnon and President John Kufuor of Ghana, president of the African Union (AU), all missed the chance to denounce the rapid swearing-in of a man who did not win the presidential election.

This lit the touchpaper for the appalling violence of the last few days. All of these powerful people knew from the European and other observers on the ground how grotesque and open was the ballot rigging which allowed Mwai Kibaki to claim victory. The parliamentary elections in which President Kibaki's party was trounced, getting a mere one third of the seats obtained by Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and with 20 cabinet ministers losing their seats, underlined the true balance of democratic forces in the country.

Tutu knows mass anger as a response to political humiliation. Kenyans in the street will listen to him as South Africans did, and still do when he speaks fearlessly to the powerful at home as well as abroad. Perhaps Kibaki, who has rebuffed the overtures from the AU and insists that Kenya's problem is an internal one, will meet the Archbishop. If so, he will hear hard truths, but also, perhaps, a face-saving way to step back from the folly encouraged by his close advisers who dared not face his defeat and the political reckoning that would come with it.

It is a myth that Kenya has been a haven of stability in East Africa for decades, just as it was a myth that Ivory Coast was in the west - until it exploded. Kenya has been a key strategic ally for the west since independence, and the kleptocratic and repressive governments of Kenyatta, Moi and Kibaki have been supported unconditionally for that reason.

Since the launch of the "war on terror" in late 2001, the importance of Kenya to the Americans has increased even further. The west chose not to see a country where more than half the population of 31 million live on $2 a day, where unemployment is rising, landlessness is chronic and increasing. The tourist paradise for European holidaymakers had become a bitter, lawless and cynical place for its own citizens.

Raila Odinga made a political alliance with Kibaki in 2002, calculating that together they could attack corruption, bring down an elite which had been above the law for too long, and give ordinary Kenyans the modest prosperity that had eluded too many of them since independence. (Kibaki too had been in the wilderness during the Moi years.)

But Kibaki was captured by the old elite once he came into power, and since 2005 Odinga has built a new nationalist alliance across the country, which owes as much to his own drive, as to the old magic of his father's name - Oginga Odinga. In the years after independence, when Kenyatta became a key British ally and froze Odinga out, as a socialist, and as a Luo from the poor west of Kenya, Odinga's was the name with which the Kenyan masses most identified. In the 21st century the freeze won't work on the son. The election has to be rerun with a credible independent electoral commission. Odinga's offer of negotiations under international auspices must be accepted by Kibaki.

*Victoria Brittain, a former associate foreign editor of the Guardian, is a journalist and a research associate at the London School of Economics.

*Please send comments to editor@pambazuka or comment online at

It is the responsibility of newspapers to report news as they see or hear it. However, I am apprehensive that this kind of equivocal and manipulated news-reporting (in the context of a slow media blockade) will simply buy the regime in Kenya time to launder its image in the midst of a crisis it has deliberately fuelled. The brewing genocide in Kenya has got a long and complicated history. The Kenyan government spin-doctor, Dr Alfred Mutua, has not even begun to scratch on the surface of what is truly going on. Kenya has a long history of internecine violence choreographed by ruling regimes that have always tried to protect their ill-gotten wealth by using ‘tribe’, and even ‘race’ as in the case of the colonial regime, as their alibi. As exiled Kenyan anti-corruption official John Githongo said not too long ago, “corruption always fights back.” Having “vomited all over our shoes” after a corruption binge and having unleashed murder on a scale we have never seen before, they now parade as our protectors. As the late JM Nazareth would have put it, we raia have become “sheep delivered to the fangs of wolves by constituting the wolves the shepherds of the sheep.”

There are many in the Kibaki cabinet and others in opposition parties who are known to have muttered what, under the South African constitution, would be termed hate speech. Many of them have worked for the state at points in history when major public figures such as Dr Robert Ouko, Bishop Alexander Kipsang Muge, Pio Gama Pinto, JM Kariuki, Tom Mboya, Dr Odhiambo Mbai and others were killed on the grounds of their political beliefs or ethnic roots. Others kept quiet when state-sponsored militias spread mayhem in Western Kenya in the early 1990s in order to stop the enactment of multi-partyism.

I know for a fact a number of public figures in the current mess who violently speared effigies of then exiled Kenyan writer, Ngugi wa Thiong’o, in the late 1980s. There are others who sat back, laughed or kept quiet when state thugs were unleashed on Nobel Peace Prize Winner, Prof Wangari Maathai and politician Paul Muite in the early 1990s. Yet others took oaths of ethnic-elite solidarity, sold to the public as a defence of ethnic rights, when massacres and inter-party repression rocked Kenya in the late-1960s. It would be naïve in the extreme to expect that they have all of a sudden developed a conscience. Beware of how many Kenyan politicians will in the coming days make a show of appealing to universal values of liberty, human rights, ad nauseum, when their conduct has been consistently illiberal and complicit in crimes against humanity. Beware especially of the diplomatic ones who will speak in pious Oxfordian tones in order that they may seem less violent than others. Beware of the suave, slick types who could never hurt a fly; they don’t need to for they have snuffed many human lives. As Hannah Arendt discovered when she did research for Eichmann in Jerusalem: The Banality of Evil, her masterful summary of the career and trial of the Nazi operative, mass murderers do not sport horns on their foreheads. They are often very ordinary ‘family men’. Investigate, investigate, investigate!

Let the world know the truth that members of almost all Kenyan ethnic communities are being killed and not just Kikuyu supporters of President Mwai Kibaki’s illegitimate government as the news-report insinuates. Government sponsored thugs and mercenaries cut the water and power supply to Kisumu (an opposition stronghold) at a time when a cholera outbreak is clearly imminent. Over 100 people have been killed in Kisumu, many of them shot in the back by paramilitary forces. There have been reports of cholera in greater South Nyanza and this will spread to major urban centres on the Kenyan side of Lake Victoria. Massive starvation is also imminent in the face of a ban on fishing (a consequence of the cholera outbreak). All major urban areas and rural settlements in all parts of the country are under severe threat, from Busia to Mombasa, thanks to the purveyors of spreadsheet democracy. A government that consorts with known international criminals cannot presume to lecture Kenyans on human rights.

Kenyans at home and in the diaspora have to admit that it is our collective silence in the face of extreme repression at key moments in our history that has led to this crisis. Giving airtime to saber-rattlers, spin-doctors and latter-day Goebbels will not help, but a little investigative journalism just might. The horses of the East African apocalypse may just have been unleashed. The truth must come out. However, our immediate duty now is not to dig in with specific accusations against politicians, but to work out a solution. Only a Truth and Reconciliation Commission and clear rules for power-sharing will help us in the end. Do not fail East Africa, for the region could implode!

Sincerely,

Dr Dan Ojwang
Head, African Literature
University of the Witwatersrand