Kenya is entering a protracted crisis. No one really knows who actually won the presidential elections. Given the overwhelming number of parliamentary seats won by the ODM and the dismissal of some 20 former ministers who lost their seats, it seems likely that the presidential results probably followed suit. But it is no longer really a matter of who won or lost. For one thing is certain: it is the Kenyan people who have lost in these elections.

That the elections results were rigged – of that there is little doubt. The hasty inauguration, the blanket banning on the broadcast media, the dispersal of security forces to deal with expected protests – all these have given the post election period the flavour of a coup d’etat. What was not expected was the speed with which the whole thing would unravel. The declaration of the members of the Electoral Commission that the results were indeed rigged only added to the growing realisation that a coup had indeed taken place.

People across the country took to the streets to protest and were met with disproportionate use of force by the police and GSU. Emotions ran high. And there is evidence that politicians from all sides used the occasion to instigate violent attacks against their opponents constituencies. There have been rapes, forced circumcision and forced female genital mutilation. The western media has been quick to describe these as ‘ethnic clashes’ – but then they appear only to be able to see tribes whenever there are conflicts in Africa. What is ignored by them is that the security forces have been responsible for the majority of killings.

What we have in Kenya is a political crisis that could, descend into civil war if the political crisis is not resolved soon. And therein lies the problem.

There is no coherent political direction from the ODM. First Raila Odinga declares he’s the ‘people’s president’ (shades of Blair’s ‘people’s princess’ speech – the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce, some might say – and says he is going to arrange to be inaugurated. What happened?

Then he says that he is not willing to meet with Kibaki, then says he will meet provided there is an international mediator. He says he will form his own government, and then takes that no further.

Then he calls for a million person march into Nairobi, and when faced with a banning order and massive police attacks, backs down and calls for another demonstration the following day.

But what is this demonstration seeking to achieve? Such events are usually a means of showing the size of popular support: but ODM has already demonstrated its popular support in the stolen elections. There are no coherent political demands for this event that would bring the support of the many who, though they may not have voted for ODM, would feel that they would nevertheless want to express their support. There is no real strategy for enabling PNU’s own political base to be won over.

The election results were rigged, sure. But the failure to demand that an independent judicial inquiry be established to investigate only leads to suspicions that even the ODM were not keen to have the results investigated. It is now probably too late to conduct a satisfactory investigation since original records may have been tampered with – which might explain the Attorney General’s sudden willingness announced today to allow the ECK records to be inspected without recourse to use of the courts.

The mass demonstrations could have been used to call for such an investigation and to protest against the media ban imposed by Kibaki and to challenge constitutionality of the ban. Instead, it served no purpose other than what some see as an infantile response to the theft of the elections.

Why has there been no public appeal to the armed forces and police – whose families have no doubt suffered in the violent upheavals – to refuse to fire on citizens, or to defend and protect citizens from the violence that has been unleashe?. Kibaki can retain power only through the use of force – and so long as the armed forces and the police remain loyal, he will be able to retain his hold on power.

ODM has failed to challenge the existing government by encouraging all sections of society to create a viable alternative to the present government.

But the real tragedy of Kenya is that the political conflict is not about alternative political programmes that could address the long standing grievances of the majority over landlessness, low wages, unemployment, lack of shelter, inadequate incomes, homelessness, etc. It is not about such heady aspirations.

No, it boils down to a fight over who has access to the honey pot that is the state. For those in control of the state machinery are free to fill their pockets. So the battle lines are reduced to which group of people are going to be chosen to fill their pockets – and citizens are left to decide perhaps that a few crumbs might fall off the table in their direction.

And the electorate – the mass of citizens who have borne the brunt of the recent violence and decades of prolonged disenfranchisement from accessing the fruits of independence – are reduced to being just being fodder for the pigs fighting over the trough.

The Kibaki regime seems unlikely to concede any space – for to do so would confirm the suspicions of election theft. And the longer that the current impasse continues, the more likely it is that people will seek to vent their anger and frustration in senseless violence – energy that could so easily be turned towards organising to building a new world.

So what is going to be the way forward? Will there be an independent inquiry into the election results? Into the violence that has taken place? Will the contending parties agree to the formation of an interim government that would oversee the re-run of the elections?

Whatever happens, the present crisis has demonstrated that there is a serious lack of any formations that can articulate a coherent political programme for social transformation. Politics will remain forever about who gets access to the trough so long as there is no alternative.

This issue of Pambazuka News is dedicated to those who have paid with their lives in this period of crisis.

* Firoze Manji is co-editor of Pambazuka News and executive director of Fahamu.

* Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

Kenya is bleeding. Kenya is bleeding from a political crisis that has rapidly led to a social and spiritual crisis. We, the Church leaders working together with the leadership of all faiths have been alarmed at the speed and depth this crisis has taken over the last 24 hours. Unless checked, this crisis will plunge Kenya into a complete state of lawlessness, disregard for human rights and the sanctity of life.

Three actions could defuse this political crisis.

Firstly, the outcome of the recently concluded Presidential and Parliamentary elections requires a quick and comprehensive political resolution. The Church as part of KEDOF endorses KEDOF’s statement –

“ in our view, considering the entire process, the 2007 General Elections were credible in as far as the voting and counting process is concerned. The electoral process lost credibility towards the end with regard to the tallying and announcement of presidential results”

We have considered the opinion of the Members of the Electoral Commission and international observer groups. In our opinion, the Government, in close consultation with all the parties who fielded Presidential and Parliamentary candidates should immediately establish a credible process for the establishment of an Independent Commission. This Commission will seek the transparent verification of tallies for the concerned constituencies. All parties must start by committing themselves to acting on the outcome verification by the Independent Commission.

Secondly, we urge the leaders of the three major political parties to meet and dialogue. Their political leadership at this critical hour is central to saving lives. Over the last 24 hours, we have lost at least five lives every hour, with scores of other men, women and children injured, scared, displaced and vulnerable to attacks by fellow Kenyans.

We call upon leaders who contested Parliamentary seats – both those that won and those that lost to jointly and urgently address their constituencies within the next few days. We urge the mass media to continue to support the cause of peace.

Thirdly, while we appreciate the efforts of the uniformed forces to stop lawlessness and we acknowledge the challenge that they have to protect all civilians we call upon them to establish corridors of safety. Such corridors of peace are critical for restoring access to food, shelter, crisis centres and other basic needs to which we as a faith community are committed to assist in providing.

The ability to communicate during a period of national crisis cannot be gainsaid. While we deplore the use of these media for ethnic hate speech, attempting to block these avenues will be counter-productive. It will block also the flow of information that is required for identifying and reaching people at risk. We consequently call upon the state to lift the ban on live broadcasts.

While calling on the Government, political parties and other non-state actors to take these actions, we realise that the future of Kenya is in the hands of the Kenyan people. We therefore call upon all Kenyans to immediately cease the violence that is occurring in our towns, villages and communities.

We commit ourselves to monitor and quickly respond to the humanitarian needs of all Kenyans regardless of their religion, ethnicity, gender and political affiliation.

God bless Kenya.

* Kenya Election Domestic Observation Forum (KEDOF) is a partnership representing Kenyan Civil Society Networks (and faith-based organisations) in establishing a common platform for domestic election observation programme
2007.
* * Please send comments to or comment online at http://www.pambazuka.org/

This week's AU Monitor brings you updates from the African Union, where Cuban Vice President Estaban Lazo Hernandez recently held discussions with Commissioner Konare. The two leaders agreed to improve political and socioeconomic links between the African Union and Cuba and enhance Cuban solidarity for the development of the African continent. Further, Nadia Ahmadou provides analysis about the African Union's commitment to human right's and governance on the continent, encouraging the commission to match its statements with action by creating " a consolidated and coherent institutional approach to the standards regarding human rights, as contained within its Constitutive Act".

A memorandum of understanding between the United Nations' Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and three European countries was signed recently. The new business plan for 2007-2009 will allocate $12 million to numerous gender, trade, and governance activities.

In regional news, the South African Development Community (SADC) reflects on 2007 and examines developments and shortcomings of its member states activities while also highlighting the various challenges to regional integration.

In peace and security news, the full deployment of peacekeeping troops in the Darfur region has been delayed further still. Of the issues contributing to the delay, amongst the largest is the Sudanese governments' insistence that only African troops be deployed to the region, asking that the UN and other international structures provide control and command support.

Lastly, the final communiqué from the 42nd Ordinary Session of the African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights is now available.

This week's AU Monitor brings you updates from the African Union, whereas the Commission announces the launching of its 'Panel of the Wise', five eminent regional personalities chosen to advise the Peace and Security Council on conflict prevention and peace promotion matters in Africa. Further, the AU and the League of Arab States held their third consultative meeting to brainstorm on the Revitalization of the Afro-Arab Cooperation and devise concrete activities for the Afro-Arab Development Forum in 2008. Lastly, Participants of the recent EU-Africa Summit present the Lisbon Declaration and resolve to "build a new strategic political partnership for the future, overcoming the traditional donor-recipient relationship and building on common values and goals in our pursuit of peace and stability, democracy and rule of law, progress and development".

In economic news, African countries are succumbing to pressure from the European Commission, signing interim economic trade pacts that are said to fragment regional integration. Also, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (Comesa) is expressing its criticism after the East African Community (EAC) signed an interim economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the EU, stating that the EAC is "dividing Africa and undermining the continent's integration efforts". Lastly, as criticism grows, the EAC is facing "political seclusion" , but defends itself by saying the interim agreements with the EU were signed to "avoid disruption of trade between the two blocs".

As preparations are being made to transition the African Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to UNAMID as the peacekeeping force in the region, the groups are attempting to clarify what the functions of various AU mechanisms will be following the shift.

In other peace and security news, the Institute for Security Studies analyses the efforts in establishing the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), highlighting the setbacks of other African peacekeeping efforts and reframing the discussion on homegrown security tactics.

In climate-related news, the Global Call to Action Against Poverty (GCAP) alliance expressed frustration at the lack of binding agreements arising from the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali . GCAP Campaign Manager Irfan Mufti says "The US has acted like a playground bully in these crucial negotiations" and delaying the development of an agreement on stringent binding emission targets will disproportionately affect the world's poorest people. Further, the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has announced plans for its African Centre for Climate Policy Studies to provide African countries with the capacity to respond to climate-related concerns in the framework of development policies.

Lastly, EU agricultural ministers have finally adjusted their sugar pricing rules to adhere to global frameworks, abolishing subsidies that are expected to benefit African sugarcane producers.

Ethiopia will begin exporting electricity to neighbouring Sudan and Djibouti by 2010, after its series of hydroelectric power projects underway get accomplished. These include a dam construction in Mekelle by 3 Chinese companies, which is nearing completion.

Uganda's government is to buy a $48,2-million Gulfstream jet for President Yoweri Museveni, media reported on Wednesday, and critics questioned whether the poor East African country could afford it. A committee of lawmakers endorsed the proposal, moving it closer to parliamentary approval, the state-owned New Vision newspaper said.

President José Eduardo dos Santos of Angola has revealed that as soon as he gets the final report from the National Electoral Commission, he will announce the date of next year's legislative elections. However, President dos Santos, who made the assurance at the opening of the XXVth session of the Council of the Republic in the capital Luanda, did not say anything about the presidential elections scheduled for 2009. During the session, a draft report and study on local elections will be presented to the Council.

Corruption is illegal everywhere in Africa, but still deeply woven into the fabric of every day life. Corruption in Africa causes and deepens poverty and its impact is felt most by the poor. To assess the situation at the national level, Transparency International (TI) undertook National Integrity System (NIS) country studies in seven Southern African countries: Botswana, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

For some time now, there's been talk of a new Green Revolution for Africa – because "Africa missed the first Green Revolution" or because "the first Green Revolution missed Africa". Now a new project, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), is trying to put the concept into operation. This paper aims to describe what a Green Revolution really signifies, why such projects haven't worked before and why AGRA won't work either, in order to help people trying to take positions at the local, national and regional levels.

The Africa Regional Sexuality Resource Centre (ARSRC) calls for applications from Africans and scholarship applications from citizens of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, or South Africa, to its annual Sexuality Leadership Development Fellowship (SLDF) Programme. The Fellowship is scheduled to take place in Lagos, Nigeria, from July 7-26 2008.

Smallholder agriculture is the dominant occupation in many sub-Saharan African nations. The influence of World Bank policies on this sector is well-doucmented, particularly with reference to Structural Adjustment policies of the 1980s and 90s. Despite wide-spread criticism of the World Bank's agriculture policy prescriptions, its major annual publication, the World Development Report (WDR), remains largely focussed on this economic sector. This paper offers a critical reflection of the WDR’s portrayal of world agriculture with respect to Africa.

The spectre of regional fragmentation is haunting the negotiations on the finalisation of interim economic partnership agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries. This is despite one of the stated goals of the EPAs being "regional integration".

A day after the dramatic ending of the Bali climate talks, many are wondering if the result was indeed best outcome possible given the circumstances, writes Walden Bello. The US was brought back to the fold, but at the cost of excising from the final document--the so-called Bali Roadmap--any reference to the need for a 25 to 40 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels by 2020 to keep the mean global temperature increase to 2.0 to 2.4 degrees Celsius in the 21st century.

Western Sahara's independence movement Polisario will vote in six months on whether to resume an armed struggle with Morocco over the desert territory, an official of the group said on Thursday. "We will have a conference in six months to decide that," Mohamed Beissat told Reuters after a policy-making congress held in the Polisario-controlled outpost of Tifariti this week.

South Africa's top prosecutor believes there is enough evidence to bring renewed graft charges against Jacob Zuma, newly elected head of the ruling ANC, a local radio station reported on Thursday. Talk Radio 702 quoted prosecutor Mokotedi Mpshe as saying a decision was imminent on whether to take action against Zuma, who ousted President Thabo Mbeki as ANC leader on Tuesday.

Cenya Ceyendi agues that for the sake of democracy itself, Kenyans should vote for Raila Odinga.

Whilst the political scenario in Kenya is as turbulent and exciting as one may ever wish it to be, the entry into the playing field of Kenyan politics between three leading contenders has been interesting to watch during this count-down to elections which will take place on the 27th December 2007. Although I was born outside Kenya, I maintain a keen interest in the developments there and am intrigued by just how the Kenyans will vote between the three contending players and the numerous parties which have been cobbled together in the last five years and some as late as the last few months.

On the one hand is the seasoned Kibaki who hurriedly formed PANU, hoping to recreate the same effect as NARC which was elected into power into 2002 but which rapidly crumpled. Mwai Kibaki , who was sidelined by Daniel Arap Moi in the pre 1990 elections, found his roots back to the desire for democracy which had catapulted him into Kenyan politics since the early 1960’s when he returned from Makerere to join Kenyatta’s government as a junior Minister. Although he had served in the Kenyatta and Moi governments, he was the unlikely contender yet Kenyans coalesced behind him to make him the de facto president of Kenya from 2002 – to 2007. His incumbency gives him an edge as does his long experience.

On the other, are Raila Odinga of the ODM and Kalonzo Musyoka of ODM- Kenya which splintered from each other earlier this year after delivering a blow to the Kibaki-led referendum last year. ODM splintered from the former NARC after internal wrangling, most of them dating to KANU years where Raila, Musyoka and Kibaki had all served at one point. So it could be said that the ODM, ODM-KANU and PANU are all part of a KANU wrangle.

Kalonzo Musyoka does not really seem to be a genuine contender for this two horse race. He does not have a track record, having quietly worked with Moi for several years and is tarnished by this track record although he served as the foreign minister and drew appeal for his smooth appearance/operations both in the region and internationally. However, until recently when he splintered from ODM thus showing himself to be bold and determined, he is not recognised as a heavy weight and was rescued by Julia Ojiambo, another long standing colleague from the Kanu legacy.

There are several other contending parties, but for the moment, these three players appear the most interesting and significant although the entry into the presidential field by the clergy and women frustrated for being “outsiders” from the original KANU group of contenders brings vivid colour to the game and there are and the stakes to play for a high at least at the local level.

Many young Diasporic young people like me have been watching and debating who we would choose of the three leaders and many of my friends are dismayed that I would choose Raila Odinga, not because I believe he will bring much change to Kenya or he and his party are above the allegations such as those of corruption, but because I believe that he has the greatest potential to change. Change, which my friends convince me is not always the antidote to the misery of millions of people and maybe, continuing treading the known path and maintaining “stability” might be.

I tend to differ and argue that if this is their reasoning, then that would give me even greater reason to vote for Raila since we can always come back to the tried and tested path which we already know and detest! Besides, as the saying goes, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Odinga promises change by addressing amongst other things, the neglected regions and the question of decentralisation which has tended to favour the already favoured ethnicities of the Central region which also benefits from its close proximity to Nairobi and its very large population. I have nothing against all this, but, this is not itself a reason to govern for eternity and could set a bad precedent from which we may never recover.

I am one of those people who is tired of this whole polarisation around the myth of ethnicity which has been taken to new heights through the Kibaki years which has sunk to new depths. The spell has to be broken symbolically so that “other” communities can feel released from the yoke of the unstated Kikuyu supremacy in Kenya which belongs to all the nations of Kenya and also from the Muthaiga types who do not see the contradiction of their actions and the wars that their relatives and ancestors died for!

No person is better placed to break this spell than Raila who is seen to hail from the “rival” ethnicity of the Luo. I know that this is not a good argument, but it is one which is playing on many people’s minds and will be used to determine who wins or loses the elections. Besides, I have a multiethnic identity and this has never bothered me. My parents come from two ethnic communities in Kenya and have managed not only to have a long harmonious relationship but to also produce me in the bargain. For many young Kenyans, despite what we have heard, we do not want to be dragged into past myths about the differences between the ethnicities in Kenya. We do not understand or believe in the myths which I understand were started as part of the divide and rule policies of the British colonials.

On this front, Kalonzo Musyoka is compromised by being Kamba, not through any fault of his own, but through association as the Kamba nation has close traditional, social affiliations to the Gikuyu who are their distant cousins from what I am told.

More seriously however, has been Raila’s capacity to steer the political focus of the country towards a democratic agenda, whether through his activities as a student, through his political activism or through his engagement with the political process. He ensured the toppling of Moi through fortuitous footwork or through genuine political genius. His desire not only to become a politician in his own right, but to also continue the tradition of Jaramogi Odinga Odinga whose legacy was NOT YET UHURU is formidable. Raila could have gone to become a business man or engineer but choose to risk his life several times to bring about change in Kenya. This is a man of courage and holds the longest record of detention in Kenyan history.

Finally, the real reason I would elect Raila is because of the three candidates, his vision for change genuinely seems to stem from deep inside him. I believe that Raila represents the best unifying factor for divided nations but also has the potential for seeing through the changes for which Kenyans are so hungry. He has also represented the urban people, some of them the poorest in the country. He is also respected internationally in Africa and beyond for his Pan African ideas. He represents the possibility for a unified nation and between the three contenders; he has the best possibility of confronting the legacy against myopic ethnicity and regionalism.

He is the best hope for change in Kenya and this is the measure on which I have made the decision why I would cast my vote for him. If he can commit to rid corruption and this is genuine, to unite the nation, to deliver the constitution, to decentralise resources for the marginalised and poor communities, I am confident, he will make it to the State House in a few days time. I have bet my friends who have decided to ostracise me: Then he said Kibaki Tosha and now he says Kibaki Toka.

I hope that the issue of dual citizenship is resolved as I intend at minimum to vote or run for office next time. I think the older generation will be retired by then and we in the Diaspora can bring freshness to the processes. Bring those elections on and may Raila win for change.

*Cenya Ceyendi is an activist of Kenyan origin living in London

*Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org

The XYZ Show, a unique African political satire web-series created by artist Godfrey Mwapembwa (Gado) and produced by Communicating Artists Ltd in Kenya is making waves by putting a humorous spin on the upcoming general elections. Please visit to view or download episodes.

The interim committee of the MDC-UK is set to suspend defiant ‘rebels,’ led by former chairman Ephraim Tapa, from the party for alleged gross misconduct. The entire national executive of the MDC-UK led by the former trade unionist, was dissolved on 13th October and replaced by a co-coordinating committee led by John Nyamande.

Media organisations and civil society have questioned the sincerity of the opposition in the SADC-initiated political talks, following the “fast tracking” through parliament of amendments to contentious media and security bills, without debate, this week. Amendments to the Access to Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA), the Public Order and Security Act (POSA) and the Broadcasting Services Act (BSA) were rushed through Parliament with only one opposition legislator raising objections.

In a predictable show of force, Kenyan voters have consigned a large number of sitting parliamentarians to political oblivion in party nominations. Attempts by Kenya’s Youth Affairs Minister Mohammed Kuti to change the legal definition of youth to include people up to 50 years old was a clear sign of political panic. But there is an easier alternative to panic, argues Calestous Juma: incumbent leaders should start to transfer power to younger generations in an orderly manner. One way to do so is to lower the voting age from 18 to 16 at most.