Will governments worried about national food supplies begin restricting land available to grow feedstock for biofuels? If they do, it may be after using a new United Nations tool to analyze their countries’ food-versus-fuel balance. The instrument, now available in a test version, is from the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization.

The Global Zimbabwe Forum would like to express its dire concern at the current state of the preparations for the forthcoming harmonized elections that are due to be held in Zimbabwe on 29th March 2008.

We would like as Zimbabweans in the Diaspora, to state in no uncertain terms our unequivocal stance on the following issues:

The outcome of the forthcoming elections will be highly compromised by the fact that over three million eligible voters who are now living outside Zimbabwe will be excluded from participating in the process. We believe that the exclusion of the Diaspora vote is a fundamental flow that brings the credibility of the elections into question.

We also note with concern the rather inconclusive nature of the SADC mediation process that was being led by President Thabo Mbeki. Should Zimbabweans expected more from this rather protracted process.

We further call upon SADC and Africa in general to ensure that the elections are held in accordance with the expectations of the SADC Protocol on Elections that was adopted in Mauritius in August 2004.

We urge all the interested political parties and independent candidates in the forthcoming elections to promote a spirit of peaceful election campaign process. Political violence must be condemned unconditionally.

We endorse current efforts to mobilize some Zimbabweans in the Diaspora especially those living in the SADC region to return home and vote in the forthcoming elections.

While we respect the individual members' preferences of candidates of their own, we do not endorse any candidates in the elections since we are a politically non-partisan organization but urge the Zimbabwean electorate to vote for a candidate who will seek to promote the democratic ideals of Zimbabwe especially the interests of the diverse Diaspora community.

We urge all Zimbabweans at home to go turn out in their numbers on 29th March and fully exercise their right to elect the leaders of their own choice.

Issued in Johannesburg on Monday 25th February 2008 by

The Global Zimbabwe Forum c/o The Zimbabwe Diaspora Forum 4th Floor, Noswal Hall, Braamfontein Johannesburg, South Africa Tel/Fax: +27113393629

The present void as exists in Kenya, says Annar Cassam, is very dangerous for it renders both the elections and the observer missions irrelevant and robs the voters of their democratic rights twice.

Nearly two months after Kenya's rigged elections and Kibaki's "victory" claim set the country on fire, there is one question that has been on everybody's lips and it has still to be answered.

How can it be that this "model" African country,this island of stability, democracy, good governance, economic excellence and humanitarian solidarity in an otherwise chaotic, conflict-ridden and backward part of the continent, can so quickly collapse into tragedy? And this as a result of rigged elections which take place all the time and all over the world, but seldom with such horrendous consequences?

This perception of Kenya being the exception, the model, is widespread, among Kenyans especially and in the outside world but is it really justified, is it not more fiction than fact?

It is difficult to square this image with one simple truth universally acknowledged, that, Kenya is one of Africa's most corrupt countries. Its history of state corruption is not a secret, nor is it complicated to understand, thanks to the country's vibrant and vigilant press and to well-documented investigation reports of major financial scandals, such as the Goldenberg scam (under Moi) and the recent AngloLeasing scam (under Kibaki).

For those who wish to know more about Kenya's endemic culture of corruption at the highest level,a seminar with John Githongo would be useful. Githongo is the former head of the country's anti-corruption unit, now living in exile in London, having fled Kenya in fear for his life in 2005. The myth about Kenya's economic status has long been promoted by representatives of the World Bank and IMF who imagine that Kenya, by virtue of its hosting the "most powerful economy" in East Africa and the UN Office in Nairobi, exists in some other parallel universe, far away from African realities.

However, the people of Kenya are now poorer than ever. According to the Financial Times, in 1990, 48% of the population lived below the poverty line. "Today, four decades after independence, 55% of Kenyans subsist on a couple od dollars a day"(FT.1/1/2008).

Since independence in 1963, the international donor community, led by the UK, has contributed some $16bn in aid. It is also under their watch that Kibera, so-called "the largest slum in Africa" has expanded and festered in the capital city where about 1.2mn people live without clean water and sanitation amenities, many of them without employment or adequate medical care. Vast amounts of Kenya's arable land are owned by the three ruling families,namely, Kenyatta,Moi and Kibaki. Half of the nation's wealth is in the hands of 10% of the population.

Kenyan MPs earn allowances amounting to tax-free salaries of more than $10,000 per month. This is a democratic model very few African countries can afford to emulate. The international community, so massively present in Kenya, has been complicit in fabricating the "model" country myth, to the detriment of the suffering of the Kenyans.The parallel universe complex referred to earlier afflicts the UN Office in Nairobi, the only UN HQ to be based in a developng country, the others being in New York, Geneva and Vienna.UNON is also the seat of two Specialised Agencies, UNEP (environmental programme) and HABITAT (human settlement) and to an ever-expanding network of international organisations, NGOs and commercial enterprises providing financial, policy and logistic support for the many conflict ad disaster-prone populations in the region.

But the plight of the ordinary citizens seems not to be in the mandate of the leadership of this privileged group of international experts who live in daily contact with Kenyans who look after their children, drive their cars, provide security for their property, etc. In the last 10 years, Kenya has become a major exporter of fresh vegetables and flowers to European markets. In the Lake Naivasha area, acres of land lie covered under green-houses where a water-intensive, high-tech industry produces millions of fresh roses to be flown to Holland (for very low prices). The environmental damage caused to local water resources and the hardship this means for the local rural population's ability to grow food crops is a case study for our experts.

Myths can take on a life of their own, unaffected by concrete realities which in Kenya are only too visible. The so-called economic success story should be seen in context. For, however impressive may be the gains on the Nairobi Stock Exchange, the tonnes of agricultural exports, the thousand of tourists, the millions of dollars in aid funds and the 6% growth rate since 2006, this cannot hide the misery and the humiliation of over half the population which used to live on $2 a day before the current breakdown.

It is time to re-consider the continued presence of the UN Office in a country whose government holds such a record of mismanagement and corruption ... and now of election fraud. Kenya's Central Bank, the main beneficiary of the money the UN and allied networks spend in the country will feel the loss,(the "UN business" is said to provide 20% of Kenya's annual forex earnings) but the UN's leadership must surely demand some basic standards of ethical behaviour from the host government, both for its own integrity and credibility and for the sake of the millions of Kenyans now in obvious distress and disarray.

As for the spread of democracy, the Kenyan debacle provides an opportunity for a fresh look at the role of observer missions which arrive in developing countries as watchdogs for the godess of free and fair elections. Is it really enough to fly in, observe, declare this or that and then vanish? Some serious attention needs to be paid to a code of ethics and follow-up mechanisms which can apply in situations where a mission's verdict on rigged elections is ignored and power is grabbed by the faudulent party.

The present void as exists in Kenya is very dangerous for it renders both the elections and the observer missions irrelevant and robs the voters of their democratic rights twice.

Finally, a word about the man who would be president for the second time. By having the elections rigged and then clinging to the trappings of power, Kibaki has shown an abysmal lack of moral principle and leadership. While the country self-destructs and his people turn on each other, while chldren are burnt to death, women and girls raped and many thousands become refugees in their own land, Kibaki has contributed strictly nothing by way of a solution. This is dereliction of duty and reponsibiity which is contemptible and which must be condemned. Kenya, after all is no man's personal property and elections, even when rigged, are not a passport to impunity.

* Annar Cassam is Tanzanian, former Consultant at UNESCO/PEER Nairobi and former Director, UNESCO Office, Geneva
** Please send comments to or comment online at http://www.pambazuka.org/

Egyptian police detained dozens of members of the Muslim Brotherhood on Wednesday, expanding a crackdown on the country's strongest opposition group ahead of local elections in April. The Islamist group, which holds one fifth of the seats in Parliament, poses the most serious challenge to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) in the April 8 elections for local councils, which the NDP has dominated for years.

The Sudanese cabinet has been reshuffled. State media reported the dismissal of Mohammed Ali Mardhi, the justice minister, and the moving of Awad Ahmed al-Jaz, the energy minister, to the finance ministry. Mardhi has been replaced by Adbel Basit Sabderat, who was the federal affairs minister.

This paper evaluates the seven presumed African success stories: Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique and Uganda. It gives a detailed analysis of the economic, political, governance and human development scenarios in each country, and identifies the emerging challenges.

Uganda’s major trade partners are not only looking for food markets but also for seed markets. This has happened in a push that has been packaged as ‘‘the new green revolution’’ by corporations involved in biotechnology and chemicals. They have been supported by philanthropic organizations, notably the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Ugandan parliament will soon have a hearing on the draft Plant Variety Protection Bill, approved by the cabinet early last year. If passed unmodified, the bill is likely to entrench the rights of breeders and companies while curtailing the rights of small farmers to exchange, save and breed new varieties using hybrid seeds.

Reforming the political process topped the agenda at a conference of Moroccan politicians this week. Party leaders acknowledged they have failed to properly address the needs of the younger generation and said changes are planned to get the public involved in politics.

Africa's top diplomat pushed Kenya's feuding parties on Friday to reach a speedy deal after the government agreed in principle to create a prime minister's post to help end a deadly post-election crisis. "The weekend will be crucial. We hope that next week we'll have something which can be agreed," newly-elected African Union chairman Jean Ping told a news conference in Nairobi.

The chairman of the African Union Commission blamed the leaders of a renegade island in the Comoros on Friday for stoking a crisis that has prompted the government to prepare an invasion. Mohamed Bacar, the self-declared president of Anjouan island, has defied the AU and the national authorities in the coup-prone Indian Ocean archipelago since he won an illegal election last June.

The two factions of the MDC on Thursday, jointly announced the end of dialogue with Robert Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF. They also accused South African President Thabo Mbeki of having failed to broker a resolution to the stalled talks. The talks completely broke down in January when Mugabe unilaterally called the polls for 29th March, leaving no time for the implementation of a new draft constitution agreed on by all parties.

President Robert Mugabe has likened independent presidential aspirant, former Zanu-PF political bureau (politburo) member and finance minister, Simba Makoni to a political prostitute who tries to endear himself to the electorate even when the electorate does not like him. This is the first time that the 84-year old leader has openly castigated Makoni for having brokered away from his ruling Zanu-PF party, an attack that could be the opening episode of more that are yet to come as Mugabe moves to launch his presidential campaign in the near future.

The United Nations peacekeeping operation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has said that it is investigating human rights violations committed by both Government troops and rebel groups in the eastern part of the strife-torn nation. The human rights section of the mission, known by its French acronym MONUC, has positively identified eight victims, including three children, who were killed by Congolese Army soldiers on 2 January in a village near Goma, the capital

The Security Council has extended for another six months the African Union-led mission in Somalia, which has been helping the war-wracked country that has not had a functioning government since 1991 to achieve national reconciliation and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. Established in February 2007, AMISOM is also tasked with providing protection to the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) to help them carry out their functions of government, and security for key infrastructure.

A former Rwandan government minister has pleaded not guilty to 11 charges during his first appearance before the United Nations war crimes tribunal set up to deal with the 1994 genocide in the small country. Callixte Nzabonimana, 55, who served as minister of youth and sports in Rwanda’s interim government in 1994, made the plea yesterday before Judge Dennis Byron of the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR), which is based in Arusha, Tanzania.

Seeking to end one of the most prolonged refugee situations in the world, the United Nations is appealing for $34 million to assist 218,000 Burundians who fled to neighbouring Tanzania to escape violence in their homeland over 35 years ago. The so-called “1972 Burundians” are among the hundreds of thousands of Burundians who sought refuge in neighbouring countries that year to escape ethnic violence which killed an estimated 200,000 people. They are distinct from Burundian refugees who arrived in Tanzania in the 1990s.

As President Bush returns to the United States from his whirlwind tour of Africa, Africa Action notes with concern that coverage of Bush’s trip has concentrated on particular successes in individual countries while ignoring the systemic, continent-wide development challenges that unjust U.S. economic policies continue to promote. Most of the attention around the Bush visit has focused on U.S. public health programs in Africa, particularly the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

The AU Monitor's Monthly Discussion Paper Series presents its current paper, based on the "Open Letter to Africa's Present and Future Leaders" written by the 2007 Archbishop Desmond Tutu Fellows. Among other recommendations, the letter urges "the establishment of a high-level African Union led campaign to fight tribalism and inequality in all its forms across the continent." Forum members are encouraged to contribute to the discussion and answer the proposed questions.

This week's AU Monitor brings you news from the African Union, where only half of its member states have ratified the Protocol establishing the African Human Rights Court. The Court's President Gerard Niungeko urges the remaining African states to ratify the protocol to enable "individuals and non-governmental organizations to approach the Court with their cases".

The second ordinary session of the AU Conference of ministers in charge of Youth (COMY) has called on the private sector to implement youth activities at national and sub-national levels in order for youth to play a significant role in the development of the continent. It was concluded that "Africa's victory against poverty, violence, insecurity and bad governance lies in the continent's capacity to empower the youth so that they could take control and develop its resources".
In other AU news, the AU Commission and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will meet this week to exchange views on recent African developments, human security concerns and discuss ways of enhancing economic growth on the continent.

Mozambique, considered one of the strongest economic performers in Sub-Saharan Africa, will host the 43rd Annual Meetings of the African Development Bank (AfDB) in May 2008. The meeting will bring together 1500 participants and is being held on the theme: "Fostering Shared Growth: Urbanization, Inequality and Poverty".
In U.S.-Africa news, Ambassador Cindy Courville, the first full-time U.S. envoy to the African Union (AU), speaks of a growing U.S.-Africa relationship and highlights the monetary assistance the U.S. has provided for the continent.

While Abid Aslam reports on the recent visit of U.S. President George Bush to Africa as being a way to "polish his image and advance U.S. interests", highlighting both positive and negative U.S. initiatives in Africa, Horace Campbell outlines the motives behind Bush's visit as an attempt to coerce African countries to sign on to the proposed U.S. Africa Command (Africom). Campbell calls for activists to "oppose the plans for the remilitarization of Africa under the guise of fighting terrorism in Africa".

In regional news, the East African Community (EAC) Secretary General Ambassador Juma Mwapuchu has stated that the Kenyan situation has affected regional integration processes and has had ramifications on the entire EAC region. Ambassador Mwapuchu pledges that his organization will play a central role in resolving the political situation in Kenya.

Also regarding the situation in Kenya, a coalition of Kenyan human rights organizations have presented a Memorandum to the African Commission on Human and People's Rights (ACHPR), addressing concerns and recommendations to restore peace in Kenya following the contested presidential ballot of December 2007.

In environmental news, the Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) recently held a conference on their "great greenbelt initiative", a 15 km wide greenbelt containing wildlife that can serve the region's economic interests as well as the development of a network of inland basins and other social infrastructure. Further, Peter Bosshard of International Rivers analyzes the potential downside to China's State Environmental Protection Agency's (SEPA) Equator Principles, highlighting that it could serve as a risk to regions with weaker environmental standards, such as Africa.

Finally, a recent reception of the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) called for countries to intensify capacity building efforts by mobilizing existing resources, in order to increase development of the continent and end dependency on Western countries.

ICG warns that armed groups are mobilising on both sides, ODM is under pressure from its core constituencies, to demand nothing less than the presidency, and the Kibaki coalition is buying time to wear down both the opposition and the international community’s resolve.

Since the announcement of the contested presidential election results on 30 December 2007 giving a second term to Mwai Kibaki, Kenya has been in its worst political crisis since independence. Over 1,000 people have died and 300,000 have been displaced in violence with a serious ethnic character. As former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan conducts negotiations for a political settlement, calm has partly returned but the situation remains highly volatile. To address the causes of the crisis, it will not be enough for the Annan team to broker a deal on the mechanics of a transitional arrangement between political opponents and schedule negotiations on a reform agenda. A sustainable settlement must address in detail a program of power-sharing, constitutional and legal reform and economic policies that convinces the drivers of violence to disarm. For negotiations to succeed, the international community must enhance its pressure, including aid conditionality and threats and application of targeted sanctions against spoilers.

State authority collapsed in the political strongholds of the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). Supporters of its leader, Raila Odinga, took to the streets in violent protest against the theft of the presidency and to seek revenge on the Kikuyu and Kisii communities perceived to be loyal to Kibaki. The security forces reacted with great brutality and members of the communities supporting ODM were violently targeted by Kibaki supporters.

Kofi Annan and a distinguished team of other African leaders have been mandated by the African Union (AU) to mediate the crisis. Soon after their arrival on 22 January, they arranged a meeting between Odinga and Kibaki and obtained pledges to negotiate a settlement. The parties have conceded some ground and are discussing a transitional arrangement which could lead to new elections after two years, legal and constitutional reforms, and a truth, justice and reconciliation commission to assist in healing wounds.

Serious obstacles remain, however. Armed groups are still mobilising on both sides. ODM, which won a clear parliamentary plurality in December, has put on hold its calls for mass action and is using the talks to restore prestige it lost internationally in the violence. It is under pressure from its core constituencies, however, to demand nothing less than the presidency, and its supporters could easily renew violent confrontations if Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) coalition remains inflexible.

The Kibaki coalition is buying time to wear down both the opposition and the international community’s resolve. It benefits from the presidency’s extensive powers, including unlimited access to public resources. It insists the situation is under control and there is no power vacuum, tends to treat Annan’s mission as a side-show while sponsoring alternative reconciliation processes, seeks to have Kibaki’s election recognised by neighbouring countries and continues to resist genuine sharing of executive power.

While the mediation concentrates on a power-sharing agreement and a transitional arrangement leading to new elections, it has postponed equally important talks on the reform agenda and economic policy that an effective transitional government should adopt. A further year is envisaged for these talks. This is a risky approach. The Annan team should engage the two sides immediately on these topics.

Three complementary sets of issues must be addressed to finalise a detailed power-sharing agreement. The first are the legal and constitutional reforms needed during the transition period, including a complete overhaul of the electoral framework. The second are the economic policies to be implemented during the transition. The third are the concrete details of the process to be followed to end the violence and to deal with the humanitarian crisis, including the institutional framework and timelines. The ODM and PNU do not control the local violence. There is a chance to restore state authority and prevent renewed major fighting only if local leaders understand that their grievances are being addressed and concrete measures are being rapidly implemented. Civil society and economic stakeholders should also be associated with the negotiations on institutional reforms and economic policy.

International pressure is critical to achieving these objectives. The conditioning of multilateral and bilateral financial help for a negotiated settlement should be reinforced by a general travel ban and asset freeze policy against those who support and organise the violence or otherwise block the political process. Some hardliners in Kibaki’s camp depend on international credit-worthiness to keep their enterprises prosperous. The prospect of making individuals pariahs can be used to encourage concessions in the negotiations and good faith in implementation of an agreement.

The stakes go beyond Kenya, whose political and economic health is an essential ingredient for the security and prosperity of Eastern and Central Africa and indeed for how the entire continent’s future is assessed by investors. Kenya’s stability determines regional access to energy supplies and basic commodities and guarantees a relatively safe environment for hundreds of thousands of Somali and Sudanese refugees. But concentrating on a power-sharing arrangement between ODM and PNU will not be enough to restore the situation.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

To the Annan mediation team of eminent African personalities:

1. Propose to open three additional areas to be addressed immediately and urgently as detailed negotiations on the structure and composition of a power-sharing arrangement continue:

a) constitutional and legal reforms, including a complete overhaul of the electoral framework;

b) economic policies, including immediate land acquisition and redistribution and major job-creation programs; and

c) the framework and process for implementing commitments for ending the violence and resolving the humanitarian crisis, including institutions, timetables and international guarantees.

2. Involve additional stakeholders from civil society in the talks on legal and constitutional reforms and from the business community on economic policies.

To the Kenya Government and PNU coalition:

3. Engage constructively in the power-sharing negotiations and take the opportunity of discussions on constitutional reforms and economic policies to negotiate guarantees for the continuation of reforms started by the Kibaki administration.

4. Restore security in the IDP camps and suspend all resettlement and relocation policies until a framework has been agreed by the parties.

5. Ensure equal access and distribution of humanitarian and reconstruction resources to all victims of the violence.

6. Arrest and prosecute the leaders of the Mungiki sect, as well as politicians supporting its activities, so as to redress concerns about possible state support for its resurgence.

7. Suspend immediately all police officers in charge of the areas where extra-judicial killings have occurred, including Nairobi, Kisumu, Kakamega, Nakuru, Naivasha, Sotik, and Kericho. ;

To the ODM leadership:

8. Engage constructively in the negotiations and support the immediate opening of detailed talks on constitutional reforms and the economic policies to be carried out during the transition, with a view to reassuring PNU hardliners over its economic policies as well as addressing the grievances of its own hardline constituencies;

9. Condemn publicly and threaten with sanctions any ODM leader inciting ethnic hatred, and express sympathy for the Kikuyu victims of the violence;

To the U.S., the EU and its member states, Canada, South Africa and other international partners:

10. Condition aid on the satisfactory conclusion of all the above-mentioned elements of the negotiation.

11. Implement and expand the travel bans already announced by the U.S., Canada, the UK and Switzerland by freezing the financial assets of individuals directly involved in or supporting violence or otherwise blocking the negotiation process and publicly blacklist their companies on financial markets.

To the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC):

12. Open a preliminary investigation into alleged atrocity crimes committed in Kenya and take into account the findings and recommendations of the fact-finding mission of the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) once issued.

Nairobi/Brussels, 21 February 2007

*Please send comments to or comment online at www.pambazuka.org